scholarly journals How Powerful Is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef ◽  
Jacob Weber
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention

Though most central banks actively intervene on the foreign exchange market, the literature offers mixed evidence on their effectiveness: particularly for unannounced interventions. We use new, declassified data from the archives of the Bank of England and the institutional features of the Bretton Woods era to estimate the effects of intervention on the exchange rate. We find that a purchase of pounds equivalent to 1% of the money supply causes a statistically significant, 4-5 basis point appreciation in the pound.

scholarly journals Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The 1960S

Abstract The effectiveness of central bank intervention is debated and despite literature showing mixed results, central banks regularly intervene in the foreign exchange market, both in developing and developed economies. Does foreign exchange intervention work? Using over 60,000 new daily observations on intervention and exchange rates, this paper is the first to study the Bank of England's foreign exchange intervention between 1952 and 1972. The main finding is that the Bank was unsuccessful in managing a credible exchange rate over that period. Running an event study, I demonstrate that betting systematically against the Bank of England would have been a profitable trading strategy. Pressures increased in the 1960s and the Bank eventually manipulated the publication of its reserve figures to avoid a run on sterling.

scholarly journals Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The 1960S

The effectiveness of central bank intervention is debated and despite literature showing mixed results, central banks regularly intervene in the foreign exchange market, both in developing and developed economies. Does foreign exchange intervention work? Using over 60,000 new daily observations on intervention and exchange rates, this paper is the first study of the Bank of England’s foreign exchange intervention between 1952 and 1972. The main finding is that the Bank of England was unsuccessful in managing a credible exchange rate over that period. Running an event study, I demonstrate that betting systematically against the Bank of England would have been a profitable trading strategy. Pressures increased in the 1960s and the Bank eventually manipulated the publication of its reserve figures to avoid a run on sterling.

scholarly journals Relationship between Exchange Rate and Reserves in EAEU Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junus Ganiev ◽  
Jusup Pirimbaev ◽  
Damira Baigonushova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Exchange Rate System

The Eurasian Economic Union, which was officially established five years ago, faced many financial and economic problems in this period. After 2014, when sanctions against Russia began, all members’ national currency suffered serious depreciation and central banks had to actively intervene in the foreign exchange market. In fact, Russia and Kazakhstan have changed regime and switched from the fixed to the flexible exchange rate system. Since the foreign exchange market has been more stable in recent years, central banks are trying to complete the reserves that had been lost that period. Therefore, with the change of foreign reserves, money supply is also changing. The aim of this study is to examine and compare the relationship between exchange rates, reserves and money supply in five EAEU countries. Quarterly data for the period 2010-2019 was used to achieve the goal. Toda-Yamamoto causality and ARDL cointegration approach were used as a method. It was concluded that more coordinated execution of monetary and exchange rate policies would be in favor of all members. However, the basic principle should be that all members benefit equally from the cooperation.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
pp. 28-35
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
International Money

Adewuyi, (2002). Balance of Payments Constraints and Growth Rate Differences under Alternative Police Regimes. Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) Monograph Series No. 10, Ibadan, Nigeria. Adebiyi, M. A. (2007). An Evaluation of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Aggregates in Nigeria (1986-2003). The University of Munich Finance Journal, 4 (2),1-19. Aghin, P.; Bacchetta, P.; Ranciere, R. & Rogoff, K. (2006). Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56 (4), 494–51. Bonser-Neal, C. & Tanner, G. (1996). Central Bank Intervention and Volatility of Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Options Market. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18 (2), 23-45. Dominguez, K. (1990). Market Responses to Coordinated Central Bank Intervention. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 32 Dominguez, K. (1998). Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility. Journal of International and Finance, 15 (4). Dominguez, K & Frankel, J. A. (1993). Does Foreign Exchange Intervention matter? The Portfolio effect. American Economic Review, 83 (5), 231-259 Dubas, J.M., Lee, B.J., & Mark, N.C. (2005). Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 11272 Frankel, J.A. ((1992). In search of the Exchange rate Premium: A Six-Currency Test assuming mean-variance optimization. Journal of International Money and Finance,1(2),19-32 Gosh, A. (1992). Is it Signinaling? Exchange Rate intervention and the Dollar Deutssche-Mark Rate. Journal of International Economics, 32(4), 45-67 Granger, C.W.J. & Newbold, P. 1974). Spurious regression in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics 2 (4) 111-120. Harris R.G. (2002). New Economy and the Exchange Rate Regime. Centre for International Economics Studies, Discussion paper, No 111. Humpage, O. (1989). On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Kaminsky, G & Lewis, K (1996). Does Foreign Exchange Intervention signal future monetary policy? Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(2), 66-89 Nwankwo (G.O) (1980). Money and capital markets in Nigeria Today. University of Lagos Press, Nigeria. Odusola A.F. and Akinlo, A.E. (2001). Output, Inflation, and Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Nigeria. Developing Economies, 39(2). Oloyede, J. A. (2002). Principles of International Finance. Forthright Educational Publishers, Lagos. Rano-Aliyu S.U. (2009). Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. Research Journal of International Studies 10(4) 23-45. Rognoff, K. (1984). The effects of sterilized intervention: An analysis of weekly data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2 (2), 14-34. Sarno, L. & Taylor, M. P. (2001). Official intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is it effective, and if so, how does it work? Journal of Economic Literature, 3(1), 39-56. Simatele, M.C.H.(2003). Financial Sector Reforms and Monetary Policy in Zambia. Ph.D Dissertation, Economics Studies, Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Goteborg University. Unugbro, A.O (2007). The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Capital Inflow: The Nigerian Experience. The Nigeria Academic Journal of Social Sciences, 6(4),1-21

Intervention Strategies in Foreign Exchange Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-399
Author(s):  
Vesna Martin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The goal of the paper is to present the intervention strategies used by central banks in order to influence the value of the domestic currency, transparency versus discretion when it comes to publishing data about FX intervention and the cost and effectiveness of intervention. It is rarely that nowadays countries allow for an exchange rate to be formed on the market basis through the effects of supply and demand for foreign exchange on the foreign exchange market. The central bank buys or sells a foreign currency in the foreign exchange market in order to increase or decrease the value of its national currency in comparison to the foreign currency. The reasons for the intervention are the reduction of short-term oscillations of the exchange rate, the impact at the level of foreign exchange reserves, as well as the maintaining the price and financial stability as the ultimate goal of most central banks. The paper will present intervention strategies on foreign exchange market, which involves the implementation of interventions in the market of options, forward, foreign currency repo and foreign currency swaps. Then, on the spot market, interventions using an auction, as well as the application of foreign currency indexed certificates.

scholarly journals Managing the Dollar Over Its Cycles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence L. Kreicher ◽  
Robert N. McCauley
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Service Production ◽  
Withholding Tax ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThe United States has ceded to the rest of the world managing the dollar’s value. For a generation, the U.S. authorities have all but withdrawn from the foreign exchange market. Yet the dollar does not float freely as a result of this hands-off U.S. policy. Instead, other authorities manage the dollar exchange rates, albeit separately. These authorities make heavier purchases of dollars in its downswings than in the upswings, damping its decline. Thus, the Fed finds that accommodative monetary policy transmits less to U.S. manufacturing and traded services, and relies on still lower rates to stimulate interest-sensitive housing and auto demand. The current U.S. dollar policy of naming and shaming surplus-running countries accumulating foreign exchange reserves does not seem to work. Three alternatives warrant consideration. First, the U.S. could reinstate its withholding tax on interest income received by non-residents and even add policy criteria to bilateral tax treaties. Second, the U.S. authorities could retaliate by selling dollars against the currencies of dollar-buying jurisdictions running chronic surpluses. However, either the withholding tax or such retaliatory foreign exchange intervention pose huge practical challenges. Third, the U.S. authorities could re-enter the foreign exchange market, making large-scale asset purchases in foreign currency when the dollar rises sharply against its average value. Such a policy would encourage private investment in U.S. traded goods and service production. The challenge is to set ex ante foreign exchange intervention rules to guide market participants’ expectations, even positioning them to do the authorities’ work.

scholarly journals BITCOIN-USD TRADING USING SVM TO DETECT THE CURRENT DAY’S TREND IN THE MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
Ferdiansyah Ferdiansyah ◽  
Edi Surya Negara ◽  
Yeni Widyanti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Develop Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Support Vector Classifier

Cryptocurrency trade is now a popular type of investment. Cryptocurrency market has been treated similar to foreign exchange and stock market. The Characteristics of Bitcoin have made Bitcoin keep rising In the last few years. Bitcoin exchange rate to American Dollar (USD) is $3990 USD on November 2018, with daily pice fluctuations could reach 4.55%2. It is important to able to predict value to ensure profitable investment. However, because of its volatility, there’s a need for a prediction tool for investors to help them consider investment decisions for cryptocurrency trade. Nowadays, computing based tools are commonly used in stock and foreign exchange market predictions. There has been much research about SVM prediction on stocks and foreign exchange as case studies but none on cryptocurrency. Therefore, this research studied method to predict the market value of one of the most used cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. The preditct methods will be used on this research is regime prediction to develop model to predict the close value of Bitcoin and use Support vector classifier algorithm to predict the current day’s trend at the opening of the market

scholarly journals HEDGING CURRENCY RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS USING THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Liegostaieva
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
International Business ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Current Value ◽  
Financial Result

The article is devoted to the study of currency risk hedging in international business. The article notes that the international foreign exchange market is the largest and fastest growing of all world markets. The characteristic features of the international currency market are substantiated and offered. It is also noted that foreign exchange transactions provide economic ties between participants located on different sides of state borders: settlements between firms from different countries for the supply of goods and services, foreign investment, international tourism and business travel. It is determined that hedging of currency risks is the protection of funds from the unfavorable movement of exchange rates, and is carried out in fixing the current value of funds by concluding an agreement on the foreign exchange market. When hedging, the risk of exchange rate changes disappears, and this makes it possible to forecast the company's activities and see the financial result, which is not distorted by exchange rate fluctuations, which will allow you to determine product prices, calculate profits, etc. The main difference between hedging and other types of transactions is that its purpose is not to generate additional profits, but to reduce the risk of potential losses, as risk reduction is almost always necessary to pay, hedging, of course, involves additional costs. Hedging is a way to improve business planning. An enterprise wishing to use this service shall pledge the specified amount, from which losses on its positions will be deducted. In today's conditions, thanks to the foreign exchange market, there is a very reliable way to hedge currency risk. This method is to fix the current value of funds by concluding agreements in this market. With hedging, the company eliminates the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and this allows you to forecast activities and see the financial result, which is not changed by exchange rate fluctuations. Allows you to pre-determine product prices, determine profits, etc. Thus, the principle of hedging in international business is to open a currency position in a foreign currency account for future transactions to convert funds.

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