On the Macroeconomic Management of Food Price Shocks in Low-income Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. i63-i99 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Adam
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Management

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries

Policy Papers ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (76) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
The Face ◽  
Global Growth

As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Food price spikes: Is a cereal export ban the right response for Ethiopia?

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-234
Author(s):  
Emerta A Aragie ◽  
Jean Balié ◽  
Cristian Morales -Opazo
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Hike ◽  
The Right ◽  
Domestic Food

Following the price hikes of 2007–2008 and 2010–2011, many governments in low-income countries implemented food export bans. While several studies investigate the macroeconomic impacts of such bans on large net exporters of grains, only very few country case studies have examined the economy-wide and distributional effects combined. Further, there is a lack of rigorous studies that explicitly analyse cereal export bans as policy responses to external price shocks and their net combined effects, both in the immediate and in the short run. This article evaluates this situation for the case of Ethiopia, a net food-importing country. We find that international price shocks not only do affect domestic prices but could also considerably suppress domestic food production and supplies. A cereal export ban can help stabilize domestic food prices but cannot fully erase the price hike. We, however, note that the ban further discourages domestic cereal production and reduces rural households’ welfare.

scholarly journals The Balance of Payments Impact of the Food and Fuel Price Shocks on Low-Income African Countries

Policy Papers ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 2008 (36) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Budget Support ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Country Specific

This note discusses the implications of the price shocks for the balance of payments of low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The response by bilateral donors and multilateral institutions will, in practice, need to be country-specific. To this end, the note identifies a list of 18 countries in the region that are especially hard-hit and that consequently face a pressing need for additional balance of payments and budget support. The list reflects country circumstances and underlying assumptions as of May, and is subject to change; it is not meant to be definitive.

Creating Policy Space - Responsive Design and Streamlined Conditionality in Recent Low-Income Country Programs

Policy Papers ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 09 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Low Income Country ◽  
Responsive Design ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Program Engagement

An analysis of recent programs in low-income countries, covering countries with continuous program engagement with the IMF throughout the period 2007-09, shows that program design has been adapted to provide expanded policy space in response to the food and fuel price shocks of 2007-08 and to the global financial crisis that followed. The analysis also finds that structural conditionality in Fund-supported programs in low-income countries has become more streamlined, with a dominant focus on public sector resource management and accountability.

scholarly journals How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (93) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chadi Abdallah ◽  
Kangni Kpodar
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Labor Market Flexibility

We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.

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