How Singapore’s Sovereign Debt Risk Has Changed from 2016 to 2021

In this paper, I build an economic model and adapt it to fit Singapore’s economic and historical background. My empirical analysis is based on data about external debt to GDP, foreign investment, and net export products and partners. But I also address concerns about risk factors coming from covid and the oil crisis. In my analysis, even in the worst case, Singapore is not going to be worse than the Netherlands in the IIR rating, which corresponds to an IIR rating of 90. In contrast to my baseline, risk assessment for Singapore is a rating of 93.

Production and Trade Impacts of CAP Post 2022 Reform on Main Croatian Crop and Livestock Markets—Partial Equilibrium Modelling Approach

The Latest Common Agricultural Policy reform intends to expand and strengthen environmental and social support and to liberalise the delivery model carried out through strategic planning. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of the new CAP reform on the main agricultural markets in Croatia. The impact assessment is analysed using the AGMEMOD model where, in addition to the baseline scenario, three scenarios of potential changes are developed and compared to the baseline. Changes in market patterns (production, yield and net trade) at the end of the simulated period are compared with the baseline scenario results by 2030. The reduction in support levels to production, abolishment of voluntary coupled supports and introduction of additional environmental constraints have a significant impact on the main Croatian agricultural markets. Crop markets prov to be less dependent on subsidies, so that market pattern changes will not mean the loss of Croatia’s net export status for soft wheat, maize and soy beans, while barley no longer holds this status. Livestock sectors, especially beef and dairy, in addition to demonstrating a distinct lack of competitiveness even before the Croatian accession to the EU, additionally suffer significant production volume losses along with an increase in imports. Although significant, changes to the Croatian agricultural market are not dramatic enough to cause a complete production breakdown by 2030.

Impact of Flow Based Market Coupling on the European Electricity Markets

Flow Based Market Coupling is the target model for determining exchange capacities in the internal European Electricity Market. It has been in operation in Central Western Europe since 2015 and is scheduled to be extended to the wider Core region in the near future. Exchange capacities have a significant impact on market prices, exchanges and the energy mix, thus also determining the CO$${}_{2}$$ 2 footprint of electricity generation in the system. Stakeholders therefore need to develop an understanding for the impact of Flow Based Market Coupling and the parameter choice, like the minimum exchange capacities introduced in 2020, on the market outcome. This article presents a framework to model Flow Based Market Coupling and analyse the impact of different levels of regulatory induced minimum trading capacities as well as the effect of the extension towards the Core region. Electricity prices, exchange positions and the number and nature of binding constraints in the market results under different market coupling scenarios are investigated. The results show that increased level of minimum trading capacities in CWE market coupling decrease the German net export position by up to 7 TW h or 23%, while French exports increase by up to 10 TW h or 9%. The different transfer capacity in the scenarios induce a price difference of up to 13%. Increased exchange capacities allow for more base load generation with the corresponding effects for the CO$${}_{2}$$ 2 emissions of the system. The nature of coupling constraints is highly dynamic and dependent on the system state, which makes the suitability of static NTC values in energy system scenarios questionable.

Effects of Foreign Trade on the Economic Performance of Industries—Evidence from Wood Processing Industry of Czechia and Slovakia

As was first stressed by the classical economists Adam Smith and David Ricardo, international trade plays a crucial role in the growth process. The paper aims to analyze the influence of foreign trade on economic performance in the wood processing industry (WPI) of Czechia and Slovakia. The multivariate regression method (MLR), assumption tests for MLR models, and Granger causality test were applied to identify association between foreign trade economic performance, and indicators were formed to measure the effects of foreign trade at the industry level. The Granger test revealed the unidirectional causality in the Slovak WPI and bidirectional causality in the Czech WPI. The results revealed that the net export growth has a positive effect on the economic performance of the industry, but only if the growth in imports is lower than in exports. The balanced trade balance indicated no influence of foreign trade on economic performance. The paper contributes to existing knowledge with indicators for evaluation of foreign trade effects on the performance of the industry. The paper also brings new empirical knowledge in trade balance effects on the economic performance of industries.

Analisis Simultan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Tahun 2009-2020

Sejak tahun 1970, Indonesia melibatkan diri dalam perdagangan internasional. Seluruh transaksi ekonomi antara penduduk dan non penduduk tercatat dalam neraca pembayaran Indonesia (NPI). Dari tahun 2014 hingga 2020 tw-II NPI cukup berfluktuasi, bahkan transaksi berjalan selalu mengalami defisit. Untuk mengatasi defisit diperlukan dolar lebih banyak lagi sehingga nilai tukar rupiah terdepresiasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kinerja NPI pada tahun 2009-2020 melalui model persamaan simultan. Model persamaan simultan diperlukan untuk melihat hubungan antara NPI dan nilai tukar rupiah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan simultan antara NPI dan nilai tukar, namun NPI tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tukar. NPI dipengaruhi signifikan oleh nilai tukar, net export, neraca modal dan finansial, serta NPI triwulan sebelumnya, sedangkan suku bunga dan dummy Covid-19 tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tukar adalah nilai tukar triwulan sebelumnya. Peningkatan nilai ekspor dan kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah diperlukan untuk memperbaiki kinerja NPI.

Heterogeneous Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions Embedded in China’s Export: An Application of the LASSO Model

With the steady growth of CO2 emissions embedded in trade, the driving forces of emissions have attracted extensive attention. Most of the literature has verified a bundle of the influential factors; however, further analyses are necessary to understand the predominant and heterogeneous driving factors in different economies and/or industries. Accordingly, by applying the multiregional input–output (MRIO) model, this article firstly evaluates the embodied carbon emissions of China’s export from 1992 to 2020 in total volumes and by 14 industries. Then, the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimations allow us to discover that urbanization, technology update and gross domestic product (GDP) are the leading three prioritizing factors in generating China’s export emissions. Interestingly, this paper discovers that raising the proportion of female parliamentarians contributes to an abatement of emissions. Furthermore, the empirical results suggest that the heterogeneities of those factors do exist among industries. For example, the percentage of females in parliaments turns out to have a larger effect among labor-intensive industries only. In facing with rapid globalization and economic development of China, this paper provides important policy implications towards specific industries in terms of mitigating trade emissions. It guides policy-makers to achieve “carbon neutrality” by avoiding carbon leakage in net-export countries such as China.

IMPACTS OF REMITTANCES ON EXCHANGE RATES AND NET EXPORT

This study investigates the impacts of workers’ remittances on real exchange rates and net export by using data for 101 developing countries from 1990 to 2015. One challenge in addressing the impacts of remittances on real exchange rates is the endogeneity of remittances. To address the endogeneity of remittances, we estimate bilateral remittances and use them to create weighted indicators of remittance-sending countries. These weighted indicators are used as instruments for remittance inflow to remittance-receiving countries. Results obtained in this study indicate that remittances lead to real exchange rates appreciation and net export reduction in remittance-receiving countries.

The Influence of Domestic Economic Factors on Inflation in Indonesia

Inflation is a monetary and structural phenomenon in the Indonesian economy. The objective of this research is to analyse the indirect effect of Debt, Net Export and Interest Rate on the Inflation through Exchange Rate : and to analyse the direct effects of Debt, Net export, Interest Rate, and exchange rate on the inflation in Indonesia. The research uses secondary data carried out from Bank Indonesia. Statistics Center Board, DJPPR ( Directorate General of Financing and Risk Management) of the ministry of finance and from the Ministry of Trade. Quarterly data of 1995 – 2020 are employed as the data and analysed with path analysis technique. Inderect result shows that there is positive and significant effect of debt on inflation through exchange rate, there is positive and significant effect of net export on inflation through exchange rate, and there is positive and insignificant effect of interest rate on inflation throught exchange rate. Direct result shows that there is negative and insignificant effect of debt on inflation, there is negative and insignificant effect of net export on inflation, there is positive and significant effect of interest rate on inflation, and there is positive and significant effect of exchange rate on inflation. Keywords: Debt, Net Exports, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inflation.

IN-DEPTH ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON INDIAN ECONOMY

Mending the deteriorating state of the world economy caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 is the biggest challenge in the new millennium. The shocking effects of the pandemic have not only affected the socio-cultural lives of the people but have also stunned the economies across the world. The world economy is passing through great uncertainty in this pandemic situation. Economists predict that the economic impact of the pandemic could be worse than the world economic crisis of 1930. Indian economy is also not beyond the sphere of COVID -19. This pandemic has impacted all sectors of the Indian economy, whether it is primary or secondary or tertiary or even Quaternary. No part of the vital segments of the Indian economy such as trade, production, demand, tourism and business travel, investment, and investor sentiment has been spared from its harsh effects. Undoubtedly, COVID-19 has severely affected the Indian economy, but how profound was the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy? That is the question of this research paper. Thus, considering various indicators of economy such as GDP, unemployment rate, net exports, and GST collections, an attempt has been made here to compare the state of the Economy in FY 2020-21 with that of FY 2019-20 so that at least the immediate impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy can be assessed. KEYWORDS: COVID-19, Indian Economy, GDP, Unemployment Rate, Net Export, GST

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.