INTERNAL FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE SUCCESS OF PERUVIAN EXPORTS OF GINGER TO THE UNITED STATES IN THE PERIOD 2006 – 2020

This study analyzed the internal determining factors in ginger exports to the United States, being a controversial issue at the international level, due to the demand for exports of multiple products; to describe the internal factors that influence the success of ginger exports and making known the relationship with each of these, concerning the exported quantity, whether the result is favorable or not. The focus of this study is quantitative; it was based on the multiple linear regression model applied to our sample, which is the United States. Numerical data of ginger exports, export price, production volume, Investment in technology and innovation in trade, and exported value of Trademap during the period 2006 - 2020 were obtained. Through the econometric model, it was obtain that there is a direct relationship significant between the export price and the exported quantity (p < 0.05), that is; the greater the quantity of ginger exported, the lower the export price, and the higher the production volume, the greater the quantity of ginger exported (p < 0.05), the greater the investment in technology and innovation in trade, the greater the quantity exported (p < 0.05). These results provide accurate information for medium and large exporting companies of agricultural products, farmers, producers; the results show the key factors that lead to the success of Peruvian ginger exports.

Effect of exchange rate volatility on Rwandan coffee price and export volumes

The main strategy of Rwanda for having a steady growth in coffee export value and revenues was increased sales of speciality coffee. However, global coffee prices are often volatile and Rwanda has little control over the fluctuating global prices. This paper analysed the effect of exchange rate volatility on the price and exports of Rwanda coffee. In order to respond to this question, the monthly time series data on bilateral Rwanda coffee exports and real effective exchange rates from January 2001 to December 2016 were analysed. The cointegration methods and error correction model using the autoregressive distributed lag procedure andGlosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH) model were used to analyse the data. The findings showed that the exchange rate volatility resulted in an increase in Rwandan coffee export price in the long run by 1.5% and a decrease in the short run by 0.2%. The findings also showed that the exchange rate volatility affected coffee export volumes in the long run and the short run by 44.4% and 3.8%, respectively. The real income in importing countries increased coffee prices in the long run by 3.0% and coffee export volumes in the long run and the short run by 26.9% and 38.5%, respectively. A review of monetary policy to address the issue of volatility and hedging system adoption in the Rwanda coffee sector should be done in order to stabilize the exchange rate and to consequently avoid its bad effects on coffee price and export volumes.

Minimum manufacturing costs, national prices and estimated global availability of new repurposed therapies for COVID-19

Background Currently, only dexamethasone, tocilizumab and sarilumab have conclusively been shown to reduce mortality of COVID-19. Safe and effective treatments will need to be both affordable and widely available globally to be used alongside vaccination programmes. This analysis will estimate and compare potential generic minimum costs of a selection of approved COVID-19 drug candidates with available international list prices. Methods We searched for repurposed drugs that have been approved by at least one of the WHO, FDA or NICE, or at least given emergency use authorisation or recommended for off-label prescription. Drug prices were searched for, for dexamethasone, budesonide, baricitinib, tocilizumab, casirivimab and imdevimab, and sarilumab using active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) data extracted from global shipping records. This was compared with national pricing data from a range of low, medium, and high-income countries. Annual API export volumes from India were used to estimate the current availability of each drug. Results Repurposed therapies can be generically manufactured for some treatments at very low per-course costs, ranging from $2.58 for IV dexamethasone (or $0.19 orally) and $4.34 for inhaled budesonide. No export price data was available for baricitinib, tocilizumab, casirivimab and imdevimab or sarilumab, but courses of these treatments are priced highly, ranging from $6.67 for baricitinib to $875.5 for sarilumab. When comparing international list prices, we found wide variations between countries. Conclusions Successful management of COVID-19 will require equitable access to treatment for all populations, not just those able to pay high prices. Dexamethasone and budesonide are widely available and affordable, whilst monoclonal antibodies and IV treatment courses are more expensive.

Brazil nuts a non-timber potential: Uncertainties and investments

The Brazil nut is one of the main non-timber forest products in Brazil, but its price fluctuations generate uncertainties and risks for both extractivists and investors. Econometric models or other simpler methods can estimate price changes and indicate the investment attractiveness of the Brazil nut. The objective of the present study was to analyze the risk-return relationship and the export price for both volatility of the Brazil nut over a 15 years period. The historical series of Brazil nut export prices, shelled and unshelled nuts, was evaluated from 2002 to 2016. The geometric growth rate and the variation coefficient indicate the return and risk respectively, associated with its price series. The price volatility of shelled and unshelled Brazil nuts was estimated with the standard deviation of the price series and with generalized models of ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH). The shelled or unshelled Brazil nut coefficient increased over 15 years, with a low risk-return ratio. The shelled Brazil nut volatility was lower in the 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2011 and 2012 to 2016 periods than for the unshelled nut when estimated by the standard deviation method than for the unshelled nut. The shelled Brazil nut price was higher from 2002 to 2016, with low volatility and persistent shocks. The estimate of the shelled and unshelled Brazil nut price volatility was better with the TARCH and the EGARCH models, respectively.

407. Minimum Manufacturing Costs, National Prices and Estimated Global Availability of New Repurposed Therapies for COVID-19

Background Currently, only dexamethasone, tocilizumab and sarilumab have conclusively been shown to reduce mortality of COVID-19. No drug for prevention or treatment in earlier stages of COVID-19 are yet found, with previously promising drugs such as hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir have been shown to be ineffective. Several new candidates are now being studied in clinical trials. Safe and effective treatments will need to be both affordable and widely available. We therefore revised our original 2020 analysis to reflect recent developments. In this update we analysed the cost of production, current national list prices, and API availability for oral and IV dexamethasone, ivermectin, colchicine, dutasteride, budesonide, baricitinib and monoclonal antibodies tocilizumab and sarilumab. Methods Costs of production for new and potential COVID-19 drugs (dexamethasone, ivermectin, dutasteride, budesonide, baricitinib, tocilizumab, sarilumab and colchicine) were estimated using an established and published methodology based on costs of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), extracted from the global shipping records database Panjiva. This was compared with national pricing data from low, medium, and high-income countries. Annual API export volumes from India were used to estimate the current availability of each drug. Results Repurposed therapies can be generically manufactured at very low per-course costs: ranging from &2.58 for IV dexamethasone (or &0.19 orally) to &0.12 for ivermectin. No export price data was available for baricitinib, tocilizumab or sarilumab. When compared against international list prices, we found wide variations between countries. Drug API availability was generally good, with colchicine being the most available with sufficient annual API exported for 59.8 million treatment courses. A summary is shown in Table 1. Table 1. Summary of list prices, estimated production costs, and current availability of potential COVID-19 drugs selected for analysis. OD = Once daily, BD = twice per day, EUA = Emergency Use Authorisation (only to be given with remdesivir) *In most recent 12-month period. Conclusion Successful management of COVID-19 will require equitable access to treatment for all, not just those able to pay. Repurposed drugs can be manufactured at very low costs if shown to be clinically effective, and offers an affordable, widely available option for patients at all stages of the disease from pre-exposure prophylaxis to asymptotic and mild infections, through to critical care until vaccination coverage is expanded. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

891. Minimum Manufacturing Costs and National Prices for Weight Loss Treatments, as Potential Mitigation for Anti-Retroviral Related Weight Gain in HIV

Background Weight gain is being observed for a wide range of antiretroviral treatments. Weight gains are higher for people taking first-line integrase inhibitor based treatments, especially those including TAF/FTC. Weight gains are higher for women and people of colour. Clinical obesity increases the risks of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, adverse birth outcomes and could lower survival rates. Anti-obesity treatments are needed to supplement lifestyle interventions and counteract progressive weight gains, but are not routinely provided as part of HIV care. Methods Costs of production for FDA-recommended weight loss treatments and anti-diabetic medications (orlistat, naltrexone-bupropion, topiramate, phentermine, semaglutide, liraglutide and metformin) were estimated using an established and published methodology based on costs of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), extracted from the global shipping records database Panjiva. This was compared with national drug list price data from a range of low, medium, and high-income countries. Figure 1. Example of methodology for calculating the estimated minimum cost of production for orlistat Results Weight loss and anti-diabetic treatments can be generically manufactured at low per-course costs, e.g. &85 per person per year for oral treatments such as orlistat and &1 per person per month for metformin. However, prices for a year of treatment with orlistat are as high as &1,205 in the USA and as low as &11 in Vietnam. In comparison, a month of ARV treatment costs about &15 via global health institutions like CHAI. Price for injectable (subcutaneous) treatments were higher, ranging from &1,985 for liraglutide in USA to &330 in Morocco, whilst they could potentially be profitably sold for &155 for a 12-week course. No export price data was available for semaglutide. When compared against international list prices, we found wide variations between countries. Table 1. Summary of drug prices and minimum cost estimates Figure 2. Orlistat course costs in a range of countries, compared with estimated minimum cost Figure 3. Liraglutide course costs in a range of countries, compared with estimated minimum cost Conclusion We show that weight loss treatments can be manufactured and sold profitably for low prices, but have a wide price range between countries. Government and non-governmental healthcare systems should be evaluating weight loss agents for inclusion within ART programmes. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

An Empirical Study on Forecasting Production and Price of Tea in India

Tea is a very indispensable beverage for Indian population as we rank the world’s largest consumer of black tea. Indian tea industry had been facing many downfalls for the past few years in terms of low price, excess supply, losing flavour and all this as a whole had affected the performance of the tea industry in India. With India being the second largest producer of tea globally, the production of tea in India can be subdivided into North India and South India. The current study focuses on the comparative analysis between North India, South India and India in terms of their trends in area, production, yield, export quantity, export price, auction price and auction quantity of tea. Compounded Annual growth rate (CAGR) was the tool used to find the trends of various variables. This study also focuses on the forecasting the production and auction prices of tea in India till 2023using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results of the present study areindicating that all the variables like area, production, yield, export quantity, export price, auction price and auction quantity of tea had shown a positive trend annually, except for that of North India’s export quantity. Production and auction prices were forecasted till 2023 using different ARIMA models amongst which ARIMA (1,1,0) proved to be the best fit model for study period.