Price transmission between international and domestic prices in the Brazilian citrus sector

The orange juice chain is a representative sector of the Brazilian agribusiness sector and its performance warrants analysis to identify strategies to enhance its competitiveness. Analysis of asymmetry in food value chain is important because it provides valuable information on market structure and performance. We use an asymmetric threshold error correction model to examine threshold, short- and long-run asymmetries on price transmission from international to domestic prices of oranges in Brazil. We use monthly data on international frozen concentrated orange juice prices and domestic prices of oranges in Brazil for the period from January 1996 to December 2020 in the analysis. We find evidence of threshold and asymmetries in short- and long-run price transmission and asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run relationship between international and domestic orange prices in Brazil. Decreases in international prices that lead to reductions in marketing margins are passed on quickly to domestic prices, but this is not the case for increases in international prices. We discuss implications for the Brazilian citrus industry.

Relative export competitiveness of the Nigerian cocoa industry

Purpose This paper aims to derive the time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of the Nigerian cocoa sector against Nigeria’s share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world merchandise exports (REC_WM) from 1995 to 2018. By concentrating on different factors such as demand and supply capacity, price factors and exchange rate, the authors examine the determinants of REC. Design/methodology/approach The authors calculated three different REC indexes. The authors also developed the relative symmetric export competitiveness index for comparative advantage calculation and avoiding the possible bias. The determinants of REC for Nigerian cocoa were captured using the short-run regression (SRR) model. Findings The study showed that Nigeria’s cocoa exports are still competitive despite experiencing some declining stages. Based on the SRR model, higher per capita income had a positive effect on the REC, while higher domestic prices significantly reduced the REC of cocoa. Further, the African Growth Opportunity Act agreement adversely affected the REC of cocoa. Originality/value This study provides a foundation for future research and enhances the literature on agricultural trade. This research makes a few contributions both from a scientific and a policy perspective. First, it is the first study on the REC analysis for the Nigerian cocoa industry. Second, a wide range of comparisons of REC among the world’s largest cocoa exporters was provided following implications of the various economic policies and local policy strategies. Third, the latest 24-year data sets were covered.

COVID-19, spatial market integration and producer prices: A case study of EU agri-food markets

The spread of COVID-19 has had a signifi cant impact on economic and social activities, with the agri-food sector being no exception. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous studies investigating its sectoral infl uence have been carried out, putting emphasis on demand and supply shocks and changes in trade volumes. However, there has not been much research into the implications of the pandemic for prices. To fi ll the research gap, this paper is an attempt to examine the impact of COVID-19 on producer prices in the EU-27 in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. The study is based on monthly data on trade in agri-food commodities according to the SITC classifi cation in 2015-2020 and the monthly producer prices index of food (2015 = 100) in the EU countries. It was assumed that the agri-food trade balance is the key factor determining the level and changes of domestic prices. The theoretical background for empirical research is provided by a spatial partial equilibrium model and the concept of spatial market integration. The results of the study reveal that there is a negative and statistically signifi cant relationship between an export-import ratio (which illustrates the country’s self-suffi ciency level) in the pre-COVID-19 period and price changes in Q2 of 2020 as well as Q3 of 2020. However, no statistically signifi cant results were obtained for the regression models explaining the relationship between changes in the export/import ratio and price changes in second and third quarters of 2020.

Higher tax to replace Russia's metal export duty

Significance Officials are trying to correct high domestic prices which they see as unjustified, and to claw back what they regard as excessive profits earned by metals companies. Impacts Export duties could exert upward pressure on global prices of steel, nickel and aluminium. Exports to the Eurasian Economic Union are exempt, so the government will need a failsafe system to prevent re-exports to third countries. The export duties will reduce the corporate income tax earned by metal-producing regions.

Modern aspects of Russia's foreign trade policy and its export potential in the grain market

A comprehensive study of the foreign trade potential of the country's grain complex is conducted, considering compliance with the requirements of food security and the development of foreign trade cooperation. Analysis of the system of legal regulation of grain exports and imports, state support not only for exporters but also for intermediaries along the entire logistics route, and research of the potential opportunities of the grain market and directions for the development of grain policy, considering the existing problems allow the authors to conclude that this area is a priority for the Russian economy. This determines the relevance of the study. The article reveals contradictions in the pricing system on the Russian grain market since the close dependence of domestic prices for major cereals (wheat, barley, rice) on their value in the international market is determined. The importance of the policy of supporting not only grain producers but also the transport and logistics sector, terminals, and warehouses for expanding the transshipment capacity of the grain trade business is highlighted.

Modeling the exchange rate pass-through in Turkey with uncertainty and geopolitical risk: a Markov regime-switching approach

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices. Design/methodology/approach The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey. Findings This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey. Originality/value One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.

Demand for Cashew Nut Exports of Guinea-Bissau (1990-2011): VAR Model Application

This study aimed to estimate via VAR the reaction of the export demand for Guinea-Bissau Cashew nuts to the shocks of world income, exchange rate and of the foreign and domestic prices and of the effects of the Civil War, which occurred in the country from 1990 to 2011. The main results obtained by analyzing the impulse response function and variance decomposition, showed that changes in domestic price and exchange rates don’t explain the external demand for this commodity. External demand responds to changes in global income and foreign price. Moreover, the Civil War of 1998 influenced the foreign demand. In the long run, external demand for cashew nuts doesn’t react to shocks in any of the variables in the model.

The transparency of monetary policy and the effect of exchange rate pass-through

The work is devoted to the study of the influence of changes in the transparencyof monetary policy on the effect of exchange rate pass-through in consumer prices. Based on econometric modeling of cross-country panel data, it is shown that an increase in the transparency of communication between the central bank and the population leads to a decrease in the elasticity of domestic prices with respect to the exchange rate in countries that target inflation and adhere to other monetary policy regimes. The effect is observed for both developed and developing economies; it is stronger in the second case. The obtained result can be interpreted as an argument in favor of the advisability of the Bank of Russia transition from a verbal description of its future actions to the publication of a quantitative forecast of the interest rate trajectory.