Helicopter money: survey evidence on expectation formation and consumption behaviour

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uros Djuric ◽  
Michael Neugart
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Outcomes ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
German Population ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Expectation Formation

Abstract The effects of helicopter money on expectations and economic outcomes are empirically largely unexplored. We fielded a representative survey among the German population, randomly assigning respondents to various unconventional monetary policy scenarios that raise household income. We find that in all policy treatments people spend almost 40% of the transfer, which is a non-trivial share that could increase aggregate demand. Policies do not raise inflation expectations. Differences in how transfers are implemented appear to be mostly irrelevant because of idiosyncratic behaviour by households that largely does not take into account general equilibrium effects and governments’ future policies.

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS IN MITIGATION OF THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE COVID 19 VIRUS PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 231
Author(s):  
Marina Đorđević ◽  
Jadranka Đurović Todorović ◽  
Milica Ristić Cakić
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Theoretical Overview

Unconventional monetary policy instruments are used in conditions when monetary policy has exhausted all the usual measures and instruments that are otherwise applied by the central bank in the regular process of conducting monetary policy. The most commonly used instruments are, of course, quantitative easing or quantitative alleviation.The aim of this paper is to point out the application of unconventional monetary policy instruments during the economic crisis caused by the COVID 19 virus pandemic in the most important banks in the world. After a theoretical overview of the concept of quantitative easing, the paper presents the empirical experiences of the Bank of Japan, the Fed, the ECB, and other central banks. Based on the analysis of applied measures and data on the use of quantitative facilities in selected central banks, it can be concluded that they resorted to the use of this instrument in times of crisis to a greater or lesser intensity. Also, the increased liquidity caused by their implementation had a significant impact on aggregate demand, inflation and GDP. This analysis can be useful to the monetary authorities in Serbia if they are to review the application of QE in the leading monetary institutions and help them to draw the conclusions that would lead to the most painless application of this instrument in the Republic of Serbia.

Inflation expectations: An overview of modern approaches

2019 ◽  
pp. 54-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. A. Ranneva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Expectation Formation ◽  
Theoretical Approaches

Modern economic theory considers expectations as a key determinant of actual inflation. How agents form those expectations therefore plays a central role in macroeconomic dynamics and policy-making. The understanding of the expectation formation process and the real-time estimation of expectations are especially important for central banks because they need to be sure that longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the target of inflation, set by the central bank. When expectations are anchored — it is a clear sign that the monetary policy is effective and that markets trust the central bank. However, it is not easy to assess the expected inflation: it is not observable and cannot be directly measured. Central banks can only use the indirect estimates of this variable. For many years the main theoretical framework for modeling and analysis of inflation expectations was Phillips curve with rational expectations which substituted the adaptive expectations. Today many alternative models of expectation formation are available. The article provides a brief overview of the evolution of theoretical approaches to inflation expectation formation and their impact on the monetary policy. Besides, using the experience of the U.S., the article addresses two main ways to gauge inflation expectations empirically — survey-based measures (for different groups of respondents) and measures based on the data from American financial markets. Shortcomings and merits of both approaches are discussed, as well as the importance of highly developed financial markets, which can become the source of more precise information on inflation expectations.

scholarly journals Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects, and Euro Area (Im)balances

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 202-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Hachula ◽  
Michele Piffer ◽  
Malte Rieth
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Vector Autoregressions ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
The Common

Abstract We study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions, identified with external instruments. The instruments are based on the common unexpected variation in euro area sovereign yields for different maturities on policy announcement days. We first show that expansionary monetary surprises are effective at lowering public and private interest rates and increasing economic activity, consumer prices, and inflation expectations. We then document that the shocks lead to a rise in primary public expenditures and a widening of internal trade balances.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization: is it affected by inflation targeting credibility?

SERIEs ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-177
Author(s):  
Carlos Delgado ◽  
Iván Araya ◽  
Gabriel Pino
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Credibility Measure ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We empirically study the impact of inflation targeting credibility on business cycle synchronization with G-7 economies. To do this, we use a sample of 15 inflation targeting countries to develop and calculate a reputation-based credibility measure for long- and short-term memory. By using dynamic multipliers through a panel vector autoregressive model, our main findings indicate that greater credibility allows for greater anchoring of inflation expectations by economic agents. This would lead to a greater effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the evolution of prices, allowing the output gap to be more sensitive to external aggregate demand shocks. Therefore, countries with inflation targeting regimes must develop and maintain credibility for their monetary policy if they want to encourage greater interactions with the rest of the world.

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