Health and Economic Consequences of Universal Paid Sick Leave Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance: Universal paid sick-leave (PSL) policies have been implemented in jurisdictions to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However empirical data regarding health and economic consequences of PSL policies is scarce. Objective: To estimate effects of a universal PSL policy in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. Design: An agent-based model (ABM) to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission informed by data from Statistics Canada, health administrative sources, and from the literature. Setting: Ontario from January 1st to May 1st, 2021. Participants: A synthetic population (1 million) with occupation and household characteristics representative of Ontario residents (14.5 million). Exposure: A base case of existing employer-based PSL alone versus the addition of a 3- or 10-day universal PSL policy to facilitate testing and self-isolation among workers infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves or because of infected household members. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): Number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospitalizations, worker productivity, lost wages, and presenteeism (going to a workplace while infected).

The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy

In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have used various interventions,1,2 including COVID certificates as proof of vaccination, recovery, or a recent negative test, required for individuals to access shops, restaurants, and education or workplaces.3 While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns,4,5 the effect of the certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy requires investigation. We construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory6 and validate them with econometric methods7 to evaluate the impact of incentives created by COVID certificates in France, Germany, and Italy. We estimate that from their announcement during summer 2021 to the end of the year, the intervention led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p.; averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France (i.e., 31.7%), 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany (5.6%), and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy (14.0%); and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, averted surpassing the occupancy levels where prior lockdowns were instated. Overall, our findings are more substantial than predicted8 and may help to inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccination and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with large social and economic consequences.

Western Balkans might seek new relationship with EU

Significance Non-economic priorities such as nation-building and partisan political interests have often shaped large developmental projects in the Western Balkans, facilitated by no-questions-asked capital from China, Russia and Turkey. The COVID-19 pandemic has created the opportunity to attract more promising projects, not least in the pharma and digital sectors. More vigorous assessment of the environmental and economic consequences of state-led development could facilitate the region’s prosperity and alignment with the EU. Impacts Civil society groups will put significant pressure on governments and investors to raise standards. Calls for the EU to support civil society and activists in Western Balkans directly will intensify. Serbia’s economic assertiveness could contribute to isolating Kosovo and encouraging breakaway tendencies in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska (RS).

Military Economy and Economic Growth: Bidirectional Effects in Transition Economies of Eurasia

Recently, the worrisome rise of military economy in Eurasian transition economies has raised concerns on what is behind this trend and what are its economic consequences. Based on the evidence from 26 Eurasian countries selected into two subgroups “Russia+10” and “15 Central and Eastern European” (CEE) countries over the period from 1991 to 2019, this article focuses on the military economy overview in this region and demonstrates the result of panel data estimations of bidirectional relation between military economy indicators and economic growth. The study shows that in “Russia+10,” military expenditures to GDP and to government spending have a positive effect on growth, and economic growth has a negative influence on these two indicators. Moreover, armed forces to labor forces have a positive bidirectional relation with economic growth in “Russia+10.” For the samples of “15 CEE” and all Eurasian countries, there are not always statistically significant results to offer clear conclusion on bidirectional effects between military expenditures to GDP and to budget expenses and economic growth. Armed forces to labor forces show a positive effect on growth in Eurasia and “15 CEE” countries.

Integrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policy making in the Netherlands

Adaptive policy-making to prepare for current and future drought risks requires an integrated assessment of policy actions and combinations of those under changing conditions. This entails quantification of drought risks, integrating drought probability and socio-economic consequences for all relevant sectors that are potentially impacted by drought. The investment costs of proposed policy actions and strategies (various actions combined) can then be compared with the expected risk reduction to determine the cost-effectiveness. This paper presents a method to quantify drought risk in the Netherlands under changing future conditions and in response to policy actions. It illustrates how to use this information as part of a societal cost-benefit analysis and in building an adaptive long-term strategy. The method has been successfully applied to support decision making on the Netherlands’ national drought risk management strategy as part of the National Delta Program for climate change adaptation.

Taguchi Philosophy of Engineering Quality

Most technology development engineers use traditional reliability engineering methods to calibrate the objective functions of their new systems to meet various marketing requirements. Quality is related to products and services to customer satisfaction. Cost reduction and quality improvement is vital to business. Therefore it is no surprise that both consumers and management are so obsessed with the term quality that a separate branch of quality engineering has been developed. Quite a few glorified terminologies have cropped up such as total quality management (TQM), Quality Function Development (QFD), ISO9000, Continuous quality improvement or KAIZEN, and more popularly six sigma design. These are management-oriented and rather incomprehensible to an average engineer. In contrast, Taguchi methods are easier to comprehend and adopt. They are also based on some common sense ideas. The management's interest was evoked owing to the claimed economic consequences of Taguchi methods of reduced cost with improved quality and consequent consumer satisfaction.

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

Will the Governance of Non-State Shareholders Inhibit Corporate Social Responsibility Performance? Evidence from the Mixed-Ownership Reform of China’s State-Owned Enterprises

Fulfilling social responsibilities in order to sustain development has increasingly become a strategic choice for companies. Good corporate governance can guarantee high corporate social responsibility performance. This paper selects state-owned enterprises listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-Share market from 2013 to 2019 as samples and uses a panel data OLS regression model to empirically test the impact of the governance of non-state shareholders on the social responsibility performance of state-owned enterprises from two aspects of shareholding: structure and high-level governance. The results show that, first, the governance of non-state shareholders helps to improve the social responsibility performance of state-owned enterprises; second, that mechanism analysis indicates that non-state shareholders improve the social responsibility performance of state-owned enterprises by improving the internal control quality; and third, the impact of the governance of non-state shareholders on the social responsibility performance of state-owned enterprises is heterogeneous in three aspects: the degree of marketization, the level of product market competition, and the corporate profitability. This paper not only helps to clarify the factors which influence the social responsibility performance of state-owned enterprises, but also enriches studies on the economic consequences brought by non-state shareholders through participating in the governance of state-owned enterprises.

Exploring the Patterns of Resident Resettlement in Rural and Suburban Areas and Their Influence on the Passenger Trip Generation

The region is a complex multi-element and heterogeneous dynamic system. Regional public transport systems are characterized by heterogeneity and incompleteness of information about the processes that take place in them. The factors determining the demand for public passenger transport services, the structure of suburban population transit and the economic consequences of changing this structure have not yet been sufficiently investigated. There is no quantitative assessment of the control factors’ influence on the results of the passenger transport system functioning in suburban traffic, which complicates the effective management in this field.In order to determine the mutual influence of objects with unclear functional connection, one of the methods of computational geometry is considered, which allows quantifying and obtaining tabulated functions of various components and parameters of settlements' interaction and centers of gravity. The numerical characteristics obtained by the described method are further used in the modeling of the processes of efficient functioning and collaboration of urban passenger transport with other external transport types, in particular at interchanges.As a result of the proposed operations, we obtain a tabulated function of the investigated parameter for the area of spatial interaction of infrastructure objects and visualize the calculated parameters in the form of graphical dependencies or in the form of a three-dimensional surface. Thus, using the method of computational geometry, with constructing a Voronoi diagram and executing the Delaunay triangulation, it is possible to obtain tabulated characteristic parameters for inhomogeneous zones of mutual influence where infrastructure objects with unclear functional connection are located.

ESG Principles in International Business and Sustainable Contracts

The concept of sustainable development has captured the world. It is altering society, generating new social patterns, reorganizing business and management models, testifying to the ultimate connectedness of the world and, as a result, encourages rethinking the legal superstructure, adapting supernova normative arrays to the current legal taxonomy, which is not always possible with taking into account the positivist approach to law. ESG principles have today become a kind of model for sustainable business development, due to which the goals of companies’ involvement in solving environmental, social and management problems are achieved. They have not only a vector effect, but also a regulatory, reputational; they have also an increasing impact on international business in a variety of industries. In addition, they are updating relatively new rating mechanisms that form the basis of investment, financial, credit, trade, corporate, management and other policies of companies. At the same time, ESG principles are segmented, fragmented and, as a rule, objectified externally in the form of norms of nonstate, often industry regulation. Without legally binding force, ESG principles are quite comparable with law in terms of the degree of impact on public relations and in terms of the resulting legal and economic consequences. Cross-border contracting practices are also changing, leading to the incorporation of “sustainability” clauses into contracts, as well as the emergence of the concept of a sustainable contract. The pre-contractual stage becomes more complicated, it requires human due diligence procedures, the formation and assessment of supply chains, the development of strategies for the disclosure of non-financial information, the study of legal risks taking into account the global law enforcement practice, as well as the establishment of methods and a jurisdictional forum for the resolution of disputes. International Commercial Arbitration claims to be attractive in resolving ESG disputes. These and other issues, taking into account their relevance, are studied in this paper.