Sources of Bias in Judgment and Decision Making

Sources of bias in confidence and probability judgments, for example conservatism, overconfidence, and subadditivity, are some of the most important and rigorously researched topics within judgment and decision making. However, despite the seemingly obvious importance of memory processes on these types of judgments, much of this research has focused on external factors independent of memory processes, such as the effects of various types of elicitation format. In this chapter, we review the research relevant to commonly observed effects related to confidence and probability judgment, and then provide a memory-process account of these phenomena based on two models: Minerva-DM, a multiple-trace memory model; and HyGene, an extension of Minerva-DM that incorporates hypothesis generation. We contend that accounting for the dependence of judgments on memory provides a unifying theoretical framework for these various phenomena, as well as cognitive models that accurately reflect real-world behavior.

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Introducing Emotioncy as an Invisible Force Controlling Causal Decisions: A Case of Attribution Theory

Polish Psychological Bulletin ◽

10.1515/ppb-2017-0016 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 48 (1) ◽

pp. 129-140 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Reza Pishghadam ◽

Hannaneh Abbasnejad

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Attribution Theory ◽

Structural Equation ◽

Judgment And Decision Making ◽

External Factors ◽

Equation Modeling ◽

Internal Factors ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

Confirmatory Factor ◽

Causal Judgments

Abstract Given the prominence of studies aimed at determining the factors influencing causal judgments, this study attempts to introduce the newly-developed concept of emotioncy as one of the guiding factors pushing attribution judgments toward a certain spectrum. To this end, two scales of attribution and emotioncy were designed using ten hypothetical situations. A total number of 309 participants filled out the scales. The construct validity of the scales was substantiated through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Afterwards, structural equation modeling (SEM) was utilized to examine the possible relationships among the sub-constructs of attribution and emotioncy scales. The results indicated that as the participants’ emotioncy level increases, it becomes more likely for them to attribute probable causes to external factors. Moreover, it was revealed that while the involved individuals attribute causes to external factors, the exvolved ones attribute them to internal factors. In the end, implications of the findings were discussed in the realm of judgment and decision making.

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Effects of Differences in National Culture on Auditors' Judgments and Decisions: A Literature Review of Cross-Cultural Auditing Studies from a Judgment and Decision Making Perspective

Auditing A Journal of Practice & Theory ◽

10.2308/ajpt-50657 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 33 (2) ◽

pp. 141-164 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

Christine Nolder ◽

Tracey J. Riley

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Cultural Differences ◽

Judgment And Decision Making ◽

Cross Cultural ◽

Future Research ◽

Probability Judgments ◽

Cross Cultural Differences ◽

Multicultural Environment ◽

Audit Firms ◽

Auditor Judgments

SUMMARY: Motivated by the growing cultural diversity of new hires in audit firms, this paper reviews the literature on cross-cultural differences in auditors' judgment and decision making (JDM). The overarching aim of the review is to summarize the current state of knowledge and compare our understanding of cross-cultural auditors' JDM with the broader cross-cultural JDM research in psychology to stimulate applied research. We develop a framework that categorizes those auditor judgments and decisions most likely affected by cross-cultural differences. The categories include auditors' confidence, risk and probability judgments, risk decisions, conflict decisions, and ethical judgments. We contribute to the cross-cultural audit research in four ways. First, we provide a framework by which future research can be synthesized within auditing and compared with psychology. Second, we recommend specific research questions to respond to both the gaps in extant literature and the changing multicultural environment of audit firms. Third, we advocate for an alternative theoretical approach beyond the examination of cultural traits. Finally, we argue that bicultural auditors represent an unexplored boundary condition on prior findings that warrants more immediate attention from audit researchers.

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