scholarly journals Inferring the role of habitat dynamics in driving diversification: evidence for a species pump in Lake Tanganyika cichlids

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thijs Janzen ◽  
Rampal S. Etienne

ABSTRACTGeographic isolation that drives speciation is often assumed to slowly increase over time, for instance through the formation of rivers, the formation of mountains or the movement of tectonic plates. Cyclic changes in connectivity between areas may occur with the advancement and retraction of glaciers, with water level fluctuations in seas between islands or in lakes that have an uneven bathymetry. These habitat dynamics may act as a driver of allopatric speciation and propel local diversity. Here we present a parsimonious model of the interaction between cyclical (but not necessarily periodic) changes in the environment and speciation, and provide an ABC-SMC method to infer the rates of allopatric and sympatric speciation from a phylogenetic tree. We apply our approach to the posterior sample of an updated phylogeny of the Lamprologini, a tribe of cichlid fish from Lake Tanganyika where such cyclic changes in water level have occurred. We find that water level changes play a crucial role in driving diversity in Lake Tanganyika. We note that if we apply our analysis to the Most Credible Consensus (MCC) tree, we do not find evidence for water level changes influencing diversity in the Lamprologini, suggesting that the MCC tree is a misleading representation of the true species tree. Furthermore, we note that the signature of habitat dynamics is found in the posterior sample despite the fact that this sample was constructed using a species tree prior that ignores habitat dynamics. However, in other cases this species tree prior might erase this signature. Hence we argue that in order to improve inference of the effect of habitat dynamics on biodiversity, phylogenetic reconstruction methods should include tree priors that explicitly take into account such dynamics.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Lizurek ◽  
Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos ◽  
Jan Wiszniowski ◽  
Izabela Nowaczyńska ◽  
Nguyen Van Giang ◽  
...  

<p>Reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) is the longest known anthropogenic seismicity type. It has the potential to generate seismic events of M6 and bigger. Previous studies of this phenomenon have proved that major events are triggered on preexisting major discontinuities, forced to slip by stress changes induced by water level fluctuations and/or pore-pressure changes in the rock mass in the vicinity of reservoirs. Song Tranh 2 is an artificial water reservoir located in Central Vietnam. Its main goal is back up the water for hydropower plant. High seismic activity has been observed in this area since the reservoir was first filled in 2011. The relation between water level and seismic activity in the Song Tranh area is complex, and the lack of clear correlation between water level and seismic activity has led to the conclusion that ongoing STR2 seismic activity is an example of the delayed response type of RTS. However, the first phase of the activity observed after impoundment has been deemed a rapid response type. In this work, we proved that the seismicity recorded between 2013 and 2016 manifested seasonal trends related to water level changes during wet and dry seasons. The response of activity and its delay with respect to water level changes suggest that the main triggering factor is pore pressure change due to the significant water level changes observed. A stress orientation difference between low and high water periods is also revealed. The findings indicate that water load and related pore pressure changes influence seismic activity and stress orientation in this area.</p><p>This work was partially supported by research project no. 2017/27/B/ST10/01267, funded by the National Science Centre, Poland, under agreement no. UMO-2017/27/B/ST10/01267.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 4383-4387
Author(s):  
ANTON PANDA ◽  
◽  
VOLODYMYR NAHORNYI ◽  
PETER PIGULEVSKY ◽  
IVETA PANDOVA ◽  
...  

The article presents the results of approbation the vibration forecasting methodology based on the synchronous measurement results of water level fluctuations in several observing wells. These fluctuations are caused by the shocks impact generated in a distant source of a maturing vibrations. The approbation demonstrated the reliable forecast possibility of earthquake time and its epicenter coordinates.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
KC Weaver ◽  
ML Doan ◽  
SC Cox ◽  
John Townend ◽  
C Holden

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Earthquakes have been inferred to induce hydrological changes in aquifers on the basis of either changes to well water-levels or tidal behavior, but the relationship between these changes remains unclear. Here, changes in tidal behavior and water-levels are quantified using a hydrological network monitoring gravel aquifers in Canterbury, New Zealand, in response to nine earthquakes (of magnitudes M w 5.4 to 7.8) that occurred between 2008 and 2015. Of the 161 wells analyzed, only 35 contain water-level fluctuations associated with “Earth + Ocean” (7) or “Ocean” (28) tides. Permeability reduction manifest as changes in tidal behavior and increased water-levels in the near field of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011 support the hypothesis of shear-induced consolidation. However, tidal behavior and water-level changes rarely occurred simultaneously (~2%). Water-level changes that occurred with no change in tidal behavior reequilibrated at a new postseismic level more quickly (on timescales of ~50 min) than when a change in tidal behavior occurred (~240 min to 10 days). Water-level changes were more than likely to occur above a peak dynamic stress of ~50 kPa and were more than likely to not occur below ~10 kPa. The minimum peak dynamic stress required for a tidal behavior change to occur was ~0.2 to 100 kPa.


1994 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
MT Casanova

Chara australis responded to changes in water levels by altering its morphology and allocation of resources. In a field harvest experiment, vegetative vigour of C. australis was greatest after water-level rises and the overall morphology of the plants varied depending upon season and site of collection. Allocation of dry weight varied over time, but allocation to sexual reproduction was always less than 10% of the total in this dioecious perennial species. C. australis reproduced sexually through the spring, summer and autumn, and where water levels were continually decreasing more female than male shoots were present. Field growth rates increased when depth was increased, and sexual reproduction was stimulated when water levels fell. An annual charophyte species (Nitella sonderi) did not display significant vegetative or sexual responses to water-level changes. The results of these experiments show that charophyte species can display morphological and reproductive plasticity in response to water level changes, although as charophytes are not uniform in their adaptations to fluctuations, results from one species cannot be extrapolated to another species. Life history could be a more important determinant of vegetative and reproductive characteristics than is phylogenetic affinity.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana Belferman ◽  
Amotz Agnon ◽  
Regina Katsman ◽  
Zvi Ben-Avraham

Abstract. Seismicity triggered by water level changes in reservoirs and lakes is usually studied from well-documented contemporary records. Can such triggering be explored on a historical time scale when the data gathered on water level fluctuations in historic lakes and the earthquake catalogs suffer from severe uncertainties? These uncertainties stem from the different nature of the data gathered, methods, and their resolution. In this article, we considerably improve the correlation between the continuous record of historic water level reconstructions at the Dead Sea and discrete seismicity patterns in the area over the period of the past two millennia. Constricted by the data from previous studies, we generate an ensemble of random water level curves and choose that curve that best correlates with the historical records of seismic stress release in the Dead Sea reflected in the destruction in Jerusalem. We then numerically simulate a synthetic earthquake catalog using this curve. The earthquakes of this synthetic catalog show an impressing agreement with historic earthquake records from the field. We demonstrate for the first time that water level changes correlate well with the observed recurrence interval record of historic earthquakes.


Nature ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 342 (6245) ◽  
pp. 57-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franpoise Gasse ◽  
Vincent Lédée ◽  
Marc Massault ◽  
Jean-Charles Fontes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
KC Weaver ◽  
ML Doan ◽  
SC Cox ◽  
John Townend ◽  
C Holden

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Earthquakes have been inferred to induce hydrological changes in aquifers on the basis of either changes to well water-levels or tidal behavior, but the relationship between these changes remains unclear. Here, changes in tidal behavior and water-levels are quantified using a hydrological network monitoring gravel aquifers in Canterbury, New Zealand, in response to nine earthquakes (of magnitudes M w 5.4 to 7.8) that occurred between 2008 and 2015. Of the 161 wells analyzed, only 35 contain water-level fluctuations associated with “Earth + Ocean” (7) or “Ocean” (28) tides. Permeability reduction manifest as changes in tidal behavior and increased water-levels in the near field of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011 support the hypothesis of shear-induced consolidation. However, tidal behavior and water-level changes rarely occurred simultaneously (~2%). Water-level changes that occurred with no change in tidal behavior reequilibrated at a new postseismic level more quickly (on timescales of ~50 min) than when a change in tidal behavior occurred (~240 min to 10 days). Water-level changes were more than likely to occur above a peak dynamic stress of ~50 kPa and were more than likely to not occur below ~10 kPa. The minimum peak dynamic stress required for a tidal behavior change to occur was ~0.2 to 100 kPa.


1997 ◽  
Vol 87 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eddie G. Quilty ◽  
Evelyn A. Roeloffs

Abstract We analyze co-seismic changes of water level in nine wells near Parkfield, California, produced by an MD 4.7 earthquake on 20 December 1994 in order to test the hypothesis that co-seismic water-level changes are proportional to co-seismic volumetric strain. For each well, a quantitative relationship between water level and volumetric strain can be inferred from water-level fluctuations due to earth tides and barometric pressure. The observed co-seismic water-level changes, which ranged from −16 to +34 cm, can therefore be compared with volumetric strain recorded by borehole strainmeters or calculated using a dislocation model of the earthquake. We were able to find a dislocation model of the earthquake rupture that predicts volumetric expansion at five of the six wells where water level fell co-seismically, as well as volumetric contraction at one of the two sites where water level rose. Strain predicted by the dislocation model is in good quantitative agreement with the strain inferred from water-level changes observed at four of the well sites, as well as strain recorded by three borehole strainmeters. Water-level changes at two more well sites correspond to strain somewhat greater than predicted by the model but agree in sign with model-calculated strains. At three of the well sites, however, water-level changes took place that cannot be explained as responses to co-seismic volumetric strain for any plausible dislocation model of the earthquake rupture. At two of these sites, one in and one near the San Andreas fault, large water-level drops are probably influenced by co-seismic fault creep. The third site has a history of large water-level rises in response to earthquakes at distances up to several hundred kilometers. This data set shows that co-seismic water-level changes in many wells are proportional to volumetric strain but that other wells exist in which different mechanisms dominate co-seismic response.


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