scholarly journals Towards the global equilibrium of COVID-19: statistical analysis of country-level data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Last
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Seasonal Flu ◽  
High Level

Objectives: In our study, we explore the COVID-19 dynamics to test whether the virus has reached its equilibrium point and to identify the main factors explaining R and CFR variability across countries. Design: A retrospective study of publicly available country-level data. Setting: Fifty countries having the highest number of confirmed COVID--19 cases at the end of July 2021. Participants: Aggregated data including 182 085 182 COVID-19 cases confirmed in the selected fifty countries from the start of the epidemic to July 31, 2021. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The daily values of COVID-19 R and CFR measures were estimated using country-level data from the Our World in Data website. Results: The mean values of country-level moving averages of R and CFR went down from 1.114 and 5.51%, respectively, on July 31, 2020, to 1.059 and 2.35% on January 31, 2021, and to 1.010 and 2.17% by July 31, 2021. In parallel, the cross-country variance of R and CFR moving averages decreased from 0.015 and 0.19%, respectively, on July 31, 2020, to 0.004 and 0.02% on January 31, 2021, and stayed on a similar level by July 31, 2021. Conclusions: The continuous decrease in the country-level moving averages of R, down to the level of 1.0, accompanied by repeated outbreaks ("waves") in various countries, may indicate that COVID-19 has reached its point of a stable endemic equilibrium. Only a prohibitively high level of herd immunity (about 70%) can stop the endemic by reaching a stable disease-free equilibrium. Also, the average percentage of the fully vaccinated population appears to be the only statistically significant factor associated with country-specific CFR, bringing it close to the level of seasonal flu (about 0.1%) after vaccinating more than half of a country's population. Thus, while the currently available vaccines prove to be effective in reducing mortality from the existing COVID-19 variants, they are unlikely to stop the spread of the virus in the foreseeable future. It is noteworthy that no statistically significant effects of government measures restricting the people's behavior (such as lockdowns) were found in the analyzed data.

scholarly journals Readiness of Chemistry Teachers of Riau Province Viewed from Attitude Aspect in Applying 4C (Critical Thinking, Creative Thinking, Communication and Collaboration)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 501
Author(s):  
Agustina Eka Saputri ◽  
Jimmi Copriady ◽  
Maria Erna
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Critical Thinking ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
High School Chemistry ◽  
Chemistry Teachers ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Level Data ◽  
High Level ◽  
Students Success ◽  
One Way Anova

This study aims to determine the readiness of chemistry teachers in applying 4C skills (critical thinking, creative thinking, communication and collaboration) in terms of attitude aspects. The 4C skills are needed to prepare students to compete in the era of globalization and teachers which are the main factors for students success in mastering 21st century learning. This research was a descriptive and inferential study involving as many as 115 high school chemistry teachers in Pekanbaru City and Pelalawan district. The instruments used a Likert scale questionnaire 5 consisting of demographics of respondents and 4 variables to measure the ability of the 4C. The results of the analysis showed that the readiness of chemistry teachers in Pekanbaru City and Pelalawan regencies in Riau Province was seen from the aspect of attitudes at a high level. Data were analyzed descriptively based on mean values and standard deviations as well as independent t tests and one way anova to determine differences in the readiness of high school chemistry teachers based on gender, years of service and educational qualifications. Thus, there were significant differences in the readiness of chemistry teachers in high school levels based on educational qualifications

scholarly journals COVID-19 case-fatality rate and demographic and socioeconomic influencers: worldwide spatial regression analysis based on country-level data

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. e043560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Cao ◽  
Ayako Hiyoshi ◽  
Scott Montgomery
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Testing Policies

ObjectiveTo investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) globally.DesignPublicly available register-based ecological study.SettingTwo hundred and nine countries/territories in the world.ParticipantsAggregated data including 10 445 656 confirmed COVID-19 cases.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCOVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate were calculated using country-level data from the Our World in Data website.ResultsThe average of country/territory-specific COVID-19 CFR is about 2%–3% worldwide and higher than previously reported at 0.7%–1.3%. A doubling in size of a population is associated with a 0.48% (95% CI 0.25% to 0.70%) increase in COVID-19 CFR, and a doubling in the proportion of female smokers is associated with a 0.55% (95% CI 0.09% to 1.02%) increase in COVID-19 CFR. The open testing policies are associated with a 2.23% (95% CI 0.21% to 4.25%) decrease in CFR. The strictness of anti-COVID-19 measures was not statistically significantly associated with CFR overall, but the higher Stringency Index was associated with higher CFR in higher-income countries with active testing policies (regression coefficient beta=0.14, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.27). Inverse associations were found between cardiovascular disease death rate and diabetes prevalence and CFR.ConclusionThe association between population size and COVID-19 CFR may imply the healthcare strain and lower treatment efficiency in countries with large populations. The observed association between smoking in women and COVID-19 CFR might be due to the finding that the proportion of female smokers reflected broadly the income level of a country. When testing is warranted and healthcare resources are sufficient, strict quarantine and/or lockdown measures might result in excess deaths in underprivileged populations. Spatial dependence and temporal trends in the data should be taken into account in global joint strategy and/or policy making against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effectiveness of Brushing Associated with Oral Irrigation in Maintenance of Peri-Implant Tissues and Overdentures: Clinical Parameters and Patient Satisfaction.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcela Moreira Salles ◽  
Viviane de Cássia Oliveira ◽  
Ana Paula Macedo ◽  
Claudia Helena Silva-Lovato ◽  
Helena de Freitas Oliveira Paranhos
Keyword(s):  
Patient Satisfaction ◽  
Analogue Scale ◽  
Ring System ◽  
Complete Dentures ◽  
Gingival Index ◽  
Prosthetic Rehabilitation ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Probing Depth ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
High Level

Implant-supported prostheses hygiene and peri-implant tissues health are considered to be predictive factors for successful prosthetic rehabilitation. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of brushing associated with oral irrigation measured as biofilm-removing capacity, maintenance of healthy oral tissues, and patient satisfaction. A randomized, crossover clinical trial was conducted with 38 patients who wore conventional maxillary complete dentures and mandibular overdentures retained by the O-ring system. The patients were instructed to use the following hygiene methods for 14 days: mechanical brushing [MB (brush and dentifrice - Control)]; and MB with oral irrigation [WP (Waterpik - Experimental)]. Biofilm-removing capacity and maintenance of healthy oral tissues were evaluated by the Modified Plaque Index (PI), Gingival Index (GI), Probing Depth (PD), and Bleeding on Probing Index (BP) recorded at baseline and after each method. In parallel, patients answered a specific questionnaire using a Visual Analogue Scale after each hygiene method. Data were analyzed by Friedman and Wilcoxon tests (α=0.05). The results showed significantly lower PI, GI, PD, and BP indices after application of the hygiene methods (P<0.001) than those observed at baseline. However, no significant difference was found between MB and WP. The satisfaction questionnaire responses to both methods showed high mean values for all questions, with no statistically significant difference found between the answers given after the use of MB and WP (P>0.05). The findings suggest that WP was effective in reducing PI, GI, PD, and BP indices and provided a high level of patient satisfaction.

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