temporal trends
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Gilaad G Kaplan ◽  
Fox E Underwood ◽  
Stephanie Coward ◽  
Manasi Agrawal ◽  
Ryan C Ungaro ◽  

Abstract Background Cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have emerged in discrete waves. We explored temporal trends in the reporting of COVID-19 in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Methods The Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (SECURE-IBD) is an international registry of IBD patients diagnosed with COVID-19. The average percent changes (APCs) were calculated in weekly reported cases of COVID-19 during the periods of March 22 to September 12, September 13 to December 12, 2020, and December 13 to July 31, 2021. Results Across 73 countries, 6404 cases of COVID-19 were reported in IBD patients. COVID-19 reporting decreased globally by 4.2% per week (95% CI, −5.3% to −3.0%) from March 22 to September 12, 2020, then climbed by 10.2% per week (95% CI, 8.1%-12.3%) from September 13 to December 12, 2020, and then declined by 6.3% per week (95% CI, −7.8% to −4.7%). In the fall of 2020, weekly reporting climbed in North America (APC, 11.3%; 95% CI, 8.8-13.8) and Europe (APC, 17.7%; 95% CI, 12.1%-23.5%), whereas reporting was stable in Asia (APC, −8.1%; 95% CI, −15.6-0.1). From December 13, 2020, to July 31, 2021, reporting of COVID-19 in those with IBD declined in North America (APC, −8.5%; 95% CI, −10.2 to −6.7) and Europe (APC, −5.4%; 95% CI, −7.2 to −3.6) and was stable in Latin America (APC, −1.5%; 95% CI, −3.5% to 0.6%). Conclusions Temporal trends in reporting of COVID-19 in those with IBD are consistent with the epidemiological patterns COVID-19 globally.

2022 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Delaney M. Costante ◽  
Aaron M. Haines ◽  
Matthias Leu

Our planet is home to an incredible array of species; however, relatively few studies have compared how anthropogenic threats impact taxonomic groups over time. Our objective was to identify temporal trends in threats facing the four most speciose phyla protected by the United States Endangered Species Act: angiosperms, arthropods, chordates, and mollusks. We determined presence or absence of threats for each species in these phyla by reviewing Final Rule listing decisions. For each phylum, we evaluated whether there was a linear, quadratic, or pseudo-threshold association between year of listing and the presence of 24 anthropogenic threats. We identified temporal trends for 80% of the 96 threat-phylum combinations. We classified threats as topmost (probability of being included in a species' listing decision peaking at ≥ 0.81) and escalating (probability of being included in a listing decision increasing by ≥ 0.81 between a species' first and most recent years of listing). Angiosperms, arthropods, and mollusks each had more topmost and escalating threats than chordates. Percentages of topmost threats were 42.9% (N = 21) for mollusks, 36.4% (N = 22) for angiosperms, and 33.3% (N = 21) for arthropods. Percentages of escalating threats were 22.7% (N = 22) for angiosperms and 14.3% (N = 21) for arthropods and mollusks. In contrast, percentages of topmost and escalating threats were only 4.2% (N = 24) for chordates, this one threat being climate change. Our research suggests potential conservation successes; some overutilization and pollution threats showed only gradually increasing or declining trends for certain phyla. We identified authorized take impacting angiosperms as the sole threat-phylum combination for which the threat had been consistently decreasing since the phylum's first year of listing. Conversely, species interactions, environmental stochasticity, and demographic stochasticity threats have seen drastic increases across all phyla; we suggest conservation efforts focus on these areas of increasing concern. We also recommend that resources be allocated to phyla with numerous topmost and escalating threats, not just to chordates.

Michela Bersia ◽  
Paola Berchialla ◽  
Lorena Charrier ◽  
Patrizia Lemma ◽  
Alberto Borraccino ◽  

(1) Aims: To explore temporal trends 2010–2018 of well-being among Italian adolescents and to evaluate potential explanatory factors. (2) Methods: Italian nationality representative samples of students aged 11, 13, and 15 years were recruited in 2010, 2014, and 2018; Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC), for an overall number of 165,000 teenagers. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to fit the trends over time of life satisfaction (LS), psychological (PSY-HC) and somatic health complaints (SOM-HC) considering the contextual factors: school work pressure, social support (family, school, peers), socioeconomic status, geographic area, and immigration background; (3) Results: From 2010 to 2018 while LS was steady, health complaints increased, mainly for PSY-HC, in all age and gender groups. Trend of PSY-HC affected mainly 15-yrs-olds: rates among boys varied from 29.6% to 35.9% (OR: 1.13, 95%CI: 1.02–1.25); among girls from 49.1% to 63.3% (OR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.42–1.72). High school work pressure and poor social support play a central role in worsening well-being outcomes; (4) Conclusions: Our findings pictured a remarkable worsening trend of teenagers’ well-being, especially among 15-year-old girls. Further research will be required to investigate this breaking up of the connection between psychophysical symptomatology and cognitive perception of life satisfaction.

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Cindy Needham ◽  
Claudia Strugnell ◽  
Steven Allender ◽  
Liliana Orellana

Abstract Objective: ‘Food deserts’ and ‘food swamps’ are food retail environment typologies associated with unhealthy diet and obesity. This study aimed to identify more complex food retail environment typologies and examine temporal trends. Design: Measures of food retail environment accessibility and relative healthy food availability were defined for small areas (SA2s) of Melbourne, Australia from a census of food outlets operating in 2008, 2012, 2014 and 2016. SA2s were classified into typologies using a two-stage approach: 1) SA2s were sorted into 20 clusters according to accessibility and availability; 2) clusters were grouped using evidence-based thresholds. Setting: This study was set in Melbourne, the capital city of the state of Victoria, Australia. Subjects: Food retail environments in 301 small areas (Statistical Area 2) located in Melbourne in 2008, 2012, 2014 and 2016. Results: Six typologies were identified based on access (low, moderate and high) and healthy food availability including one where zero food outlets were present. Over the study period SA2s experienced an overall increase in accessibility and healthiness. Distribution of typologies varied by geographic location and area-level socioeconomic position. Conclusion: Multiple typologies with contrasting access and healthiness measures exist within Melbourne and these continue to change over time, the majority of SA2s were dominated by the presence of unhealthy relative to healthy outlets; with SA2s experiencing growth and disadvantage having the lowest access and to a greater proportion of unhealthy outlets.

2022 ◽  
Mimmi Oksman ◽  
Anna Bang Kvorning ◽  
Signe Hillerup Larsen ◽  
Kristian Kjellerup Kjeldsen ◽  
Kenneth David Mankoff ◽  

Abstract. Climate warming and the resulting acceleration of freshwater discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet are impacting Arctic marine coastal ecosystems, with implications for their biological productivity. To accurately project the future of coastal ecosystems, and place recent trends into perspective, paleo-records are essential. Here, we present late 19th century to present runoff estimates for a large sub-Arctic fjord system (Nuup Kangerlua, southwest Greenland) influenced by both marine- and land-terminating glaciers. We followed a multiproxy approach to reconstruct spatial and temporal trends in primary production from four sediment cores, including diatom fluxes and assemblage composition changes, biogeochemical and sedimentological proxies (total organic carbon, nitrogen, C / N-ratio, biogenic silica, δ13C, δ15N, grain size distribution). We show that an abrupt increase in freshwater runoff in the mid-1990’s is reflected by a 3-fold increase in biogenic silica fluxes in the glacier-proximal area of the fjord. In addition to increased productivity, freshwater runoff modulates the diatom assemblages and drives the dynamics and magnitude of the diatom spring bloom. Our records indicate that marine productivity is higher today than it has been at any point since the late 19th century and suggest that increased mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet is likely to continue promoting high productivity levels at sites proximal to marine-terminating glaciers. We highlight the importance of paleo-records in offering a unique temporal perspective on ice-ocean-ecosystem responses to climate forcing beyond existing remote sensing or monitoring time-series.

Eric Tsz-Chun Poon ◽  
Grant Tomkinson ◽  
Wendy Yajun Huang ◽  
Stephen H.S. Wong

Low physical fitness in adolescence is linked with increased cardiometabolic risk and early all-cause mortality. This study aimed to estimate temporal trends in the physical fitness of Hong Kong adolescents aged 12–17 years between 1998 and 2015. Physical fitness (9-min run/walk, sit-ups, push-ups, and sit-and-reach) and body size data in a total of 28,059 adolescents tested across five population-representative surveys of Hong Kong secondary school pupils, were reported. Temporal trends in means were estimated at the gender-age level by best-fitting sample-weighted linear regression, with national trends estimated by a post-stratified population-weighting procedure. Overall, there were small declines in 9-min run/walk (effect size (ES) = 0.29 (95%CI: 0.32, 0.26)) and sit-ups performance (ES = 0.24 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.21)), with negligible changes in push-ups and sit-and-reach performance. There were small concurrent increases in both mean height and body mass, with a negligible increase in sum of skinfolds. Trends in mean physical fitness and body size/ were not always uniform across the population distribution. The small declines in mean 9-min run/walk and sit-ups performance for Hong Kong adolescents are suggestive of corresponding declines in cardiorespiratory fitness and abdominal/core endurance, respectively. Increased national health promotion strategies are required to improve existing fitness trends.

2022 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Mia Salans ◽  
Paul Riviere ◽  
Lucas K. Vitzthum ◽  
Vinit Nalawade ◽  
James D. Murphy

Edda Vesteinsdottir ◽  
Martin Ingi Sigurdsson ◽  
Magnus Gottfredsson ◽  
Asbjorn Blondal ◽  
Sigurbergur Karason

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