Analysts’ cash flow forecasts informativeness, financial distress and auditor quality

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Afroditi Papadaki ◽  
Olga-Chara Pavlopoulou-Lelaki
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Auditor Quality ◽  
Distressed Firms ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the sophistication (accuracy, bias, informativeness for changes in accruals) and market pricing of analysts’ cash flow forecasts for Eurozone listed firms and the effects of financial distress and auditor quality. Design/methodology/approach Accuracy/bias is investigated using analysts’ cash flow forecast errors. The naïve extrapolation model is used to examine the forecasts’ informativeness for working capital changes. A total return model is used to examine value-relevance. This study controls for the forecast horizon, using the Altman z-score and a BigN/industry specialization auditor indicator to proxy for distress and auditor quality, respectively. Findings Analysts efficiently adjust earnings forecasts for depreciation during cash flow forecast formation but fail to efficiently incorporate working capital changes. Findings indicate cash flow forecasts’ accuracy improves for distressed firms and firms of high auditor quality, attributed to analyst conservatism and accounting choices and more accurate earnings forecasts, respectively. Cash flow forecasts’ value-relevance increases for distressed firms, particularly those of high auditor quality and timely forecasts. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine analysts’ cash flow forecasts taking into consideration financial distress and auditor quality, controlling for the analyst forecast horizon.

The association of analysts’ cash flow forecasts with stock recommendation profitability

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 343-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Pan ◽  
Zhaohui Randall Xu
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Earnings Quality ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Firm Valuation ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Recommendations ◽  
Stock Recommendation ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve the profitability of their stock recommendations and whether the positive effect of cash flow forecasts on analysts’ stock recommendation performance varies with firms’ earnings quality. Design/methodology/approach To test the authors’ predictions, they identify a sample of 161,673 stock recommendations with contemporaneous earnings forecasts and/or cash flow forecasts and regress market-adjusted stock returns on a binary variable that proxies for the issuance of cash flow forecasts while controlling for contemporaneous earnings forecast accuracy, earnings quality, analysts’ forecast experience and capability and certain firm characteristics. The authors’ test results are robust to alternative measures of recommendation profitability, earnings quality and the use of recommendation revisions instead of recommendation levels. Findings The authors find that when analysts issue cash flow forecasts concurrently with earnings forecasts, their stock recommendations lead to higher profitability than when they only issue earnings forecasts, after controlling for analysts’ forecast capability. Moreover, the authors document that the contemporaneous positive relationship between cash flow forecasts and recommendations profitability is stronger for firms with low earnings quality than for firms with high earnings quality. The findings suggest that cash flow forecasts issued by analysts in response to market demand likely play a more important role in firm valuation than cash flow forecasts issued by analysts mainly because of supply-side considerations. Research limitations/implications Future research could build on these findings to conduct further investigation on the alternative incentives for analysts’ forecasts of sales growth and long-term growth rates. Practical implications These findings may also help investors to better assess the quality of analysts’ research outputs and to identify superior stock recommendations. Originality/value This study provides insight into the role of cash flow forecasts in firm valuation and adds fresh evidence to the debate on the usefulness of cash flow forecasts. It extends the stream of research on the characteristics of analyst forecasts and increases our knowledge about the role of analysts in the financial market.

Properties of analysts’ consensus cash flow forecasts for Australian firms

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-147
Author(s):  
Kamran Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Nurul Houqe ◽  
John Hillier ◽  
Steven Crockett
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equity Pricing ◽  
Functional Efficiency ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine the properties of analysts’ cash flows from operations (CFO) forecast generated for Australian listed firms as a productive activity, within the wider processes of financial disclosure in Australia. Design/methodology/approach Two categories of criteria are adopted: first, basic predictive statistical performance relative to a benchmark model and earnings forecasts; and second, relevance for equity pricing, as indicated by the market reaction to cash flow or forecast error reactions. The final sample comprised 2,138 observations between 2001 and 2016 and several regression models are estimated to determine the relative performance and market reaction. Findings Analysts’ consensus cash flow forecasts demonstrate poor predictive performance relative to earnings forecasts. Cash flow forecasts are typically naïve extensions of earnings forecasts. Furthermore, cash flow forecasts appear to be of minimal use for equity market participants in complementing earnings forecasts’ role in informing firms’ equity pricing. Practical implications While analysts’ earnings forecasts are useful for making predictions, the role of analysts’ cash flow forecasts in capital market functional efficiency appears quite limited. Originality/value This study is one of few that examines comparative usefulness of analysts’ earnings and cash flow forecasts and their predictive power using the Australian setting. Additionally, it enriches the sparse international literature on such forecasts.

Is a firm’s financial risk associated with corporate social responsibility?

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 2175-2199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Jui Hsu ◽  
Yu-Cheng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Social Performance ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Social

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether socially responsible firms behave differently from other firms in terms of financial risk using US-based firms from 1991 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach – The authors used the KLD social performance rating scores as the measure of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance and obtained an initial sample of 38,158 firm-year observations from 1991 to 2012. The authors obtained the monthly consensus earnings forecast for fiscal year one and the monthly dispersions for these earnings forecasts from I/B/E/S, and the bond spread from DataStream database. Specifically, the authors question whether firms that exhibit CSR obtain market approval to reduce financial risk, thereby providing investors and regulators with more reliable and transparent financial information, as opposed to firms that do not meet the same criteria. Findings – The authors find that social responsible firms usually perform better in terms of their credit ratings and have lower credit risk, in terms of loan spreads when compared to corporate bond spreads, and in terms of distance to default. The results control for various measurements for CSR and time periods, consider various CSR dimensions and components, and use alternative proxies to improve the quality of financial risk estimates. Originality/value – The findings demonstrate the importance of considering both positive and negative CSR performance. Positive CSR ratings are associated with reduced financial risk while negative CSR performance scores lead to increased financial distress. Investors respond to positive CSR ratings.

Do Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Mitigate the Accrual Anomaly? International Evidence

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Gordon ◽  
Karin A. Petruska ◽  
Minna Yu
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Common Law ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
World Market ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Accrual Anomaly ◽  
International Setting ◽  
Public Disclosures ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts

ABSTRACT We investigate the role of analysts' cash flow forecasts in mitigating the accrual anomaly in an international setting. Based on a sample from 20 world market economies, we find less market overestimation of the accrual component of earnings for firms where analysts issue both cash flow forecasts and earnings forecasts, compared with firms where analysts only issue earnings forecasts. Further tests show that analysts' provisions of cash flow forecasts are more likely to be a mechanism that attenuates investors' fixations on earnings in common law countries as opposed to code law countries. This finding is consistent with cash flow predictions by analysts being useful in countries where public disclosures are the primary communication channels in the capital markets. We also find the accrual anomaly to be less severe when analysts provide more accurate cash flow forecasts in common law countries. Our results are robust to additional sensitivity tests, including controlling for potential sample selection bias and an endogeneity bias. JEL Classifications: G14, G15, M41. Data Availability: Data used are available from sources identified in the paper.

The Effects of Financial Statement and Informational Complexity on Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. 915-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Hodder ◽  
Patrick E. Hopkins ◽  
David A. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Indirect Approach ◽  
Operating Cash Flows ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Statement Of Cash Flows ◽  
Mixed Pattern ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

ABSTRACT: We characterize the operating-activities section of the indirect-approach statement of cash flows as backward because it presents reconciling adjustments in a way that is opposite from the intuitively appealing, future-oriented, Conceptual Framework definitions of assets, liabilities, and the accruals process. We propose that the reversed-accruals orientation required in the currently mandated indirect-approach statement of cash flows is unnecessarily complex, causing information-processing problems that result in increased cash flow forecast error and dispersion. We also predict that the mixed pattern (i.e., +/−, −/+) of operating cash flows and operating accruals reported by most companies impedes investors’ ability to learn the time-series properties of cash flows and accruals. We conduct a carefully controlled experiment and find that (1) cash flow forecasts have lower forecast error and dispersion when the indirect-approach statement of cash flows starts with operating cash flows and adds changes in accruals to arrive at net income and (2) cash flow forecasts have lower forecast error and dispersion when the cash flows and accruals are of the same sign (i.e., +/+, −/−); with the sign-based difference attenuated in the forward-oriented statement of cash flows. We also conduct a quasi-experiment to test our mixed-sign versus same-sign hypotheses using archival samples of publicly available I/B/E/S and Value Line cash flow forecasts. We find that the passively observed samples of cash flow forecasts exhibit a similar pattern of mixed-sign versus same-sign forecast error as documented in our experiment.

Does recycling improve information usefulness of income? The case of Japan

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-403
Author(s):  
Frendy ◽  
HU Dan Semba
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Accounting Standards ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Japanese Firms ◽  
Incremental Value ◽  
Operating Cash Flow

Purpose The Accounting Standards Board of Japan (ASBJ) proposed a new set of endorsed International Financial Reporting Standards in June 2015. ASBJ claims that non-recycling of other comprehensive income (OCI) items decreases the information usefulness of earnings in a proposed comprehensive income standard. There has been no existing empirical evidence which supports the ASBJ’s statement and the purpose of the study is to test whether OCI recycling improves information usefulness of net income from six perspectives: relative and incremental value relevance, persistence, variability, operating cash flow and net income predictive power. Design/methodology/approach This paper is an empirical work using a listed Japanese firms sample of 5,385 firm-years from fiscal year 2012-2014. Findings The results challenge the ASBJ’s claim that recycling improves the general information usefulness characteristics of net income. The empirical results show that OCI recycling improves net income’s relative value relevance characteristic of financial firms. However, recycling information by itself does not improve the incremental value relevance, and the predictive power of operating cash flow and net income. The authors also find that the inclusion of recycling decreases the persistence and increases the variability of net income. Research limitations/implications This paper has two research limitations. First, this study is constrained to analyze a limited OCI recycling data that is recently disclosed by listed Japanese firms. Second, the results of this study have limited external validity to capital markets with OCI reclassification standards that deviate from Japanese GAAP. Originality/value This study provides initial empirical evidence that examines information usefulness of OCI recycling in Japan. The findings of this study are relevant for accounting standards setters aiming to increase the information usefulness of earnings for capital market investors.

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