The association of analysts’ cash flow forecasts with stock recommendation profitability

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 343-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Pan ◽  
Zhaohui Randall Xu
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Earnings Quality ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Firm Valuation ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Recommendations ◽  
Stock Recommendation ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve the profitability of their stock recommendations and whether the positive effect of cash flow forecasts on analysts’ stock recommendation performance varies with firms’ earnings quality. Design/methodology/approach To test the authors’ predictions, they identify a sample of 161,673 stock recommendations with contemporaneous earnings forecasts and/or cash flow forecasts and regress market-adjusted stock returns on a binary variable that proxies for the issuance of cash flow forecasts while controlling for contemporaneous earnings forecast accuracy, earnings quality, analysts’ forecast experience and capability and certain firm characteristics. The authors’ test results are robust to alternative measures of recommendation profitability, earnings quality and the use of recommendation revisions instead of recommendation levels. Findings The authors find that when analysts issue cash flow forecasts concurrently with earnings forecasts, their stock recommendations lead to higher profitability than when they only issue earnings forecasts, after controlling for analysts’ forecast capability. Moreover, the authors document that the contemporaneous positive relationship between cash flow forecasts and recommendations profitability is stronger for firms with low earnings quality than for firms with high earnings quality. The findings suggest that cash flow forecasts issued by analysts in response to market demand likely play a more important role in firm valuation than cash flow forecasts issued by analysts mainly because of supply-side considerations. Research limitations/implications Future research could build on these findings to conduct further investigation on the alternative incentives for analysts’ forecasts of sales growth and long-term growth rates. Practical implications These findings may also help investors to better assess the quality of analysts’ research outputs and to identify superior stock recommendations. Originality/value This study provides insight into the role of cash flow forecasts in firm valuation and adds fresh evidence to the debate on the usefulness of cash flow forecasts. It extends the stream of research on the characteristics of analyst forecasts and increases our knowledge about the role of analysts in the financial market.

Analysts’ cash flow forecasts informativeness, financial distress and auditor quality

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Afroditi Papadaki ◽  
Olga-Chara Pavlopoulou-Lelaki
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Auditor Quality ◽  
Distressed Firms ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the sophistication (accuracy, bias, informativeness for changes in accruals) and market pricing of analysts’ cash flow forecasts for Eurozone listed firms and the effects of financial distress and auditor quality. Design/methodology/approach Accuracy/bias is investigated using analysts’ cash flow forecast errors. The naïve extrapolation model is used to examine the forecasts’ informativeness for working capital changes. A total return model is used to examine value-relevance. This study controls for the forecast horizon, using the Altman z-score and a BigN/industry specialization auditor indicator to proxy for distress and auditor quality, respectively. Findings Analysts efficiently adjust earnings forecasts for depreciation during cash flow forecast formation but fail to efficiently incorporate working capital changes. Findings indicate cash flow forecasts’ accuracy improves for distressed firms and firms of high auditor quality, attributed to analyst conservatism and accounting choices and more accurate earnings forecasts, respectively. Cash flow forecasts’ value-relevance increases for distressed firms, particularly those of high auditor quality and timely forecasts. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine analysts’ cash flow forecasts taking into consideration financial distress and auditor quality, controlling for the analyst forecast horizon.

Properties of analysts’ consensus cash flow forecasts for Australian firms

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-147
Author(s):  
Kamran Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Nurul Houqe ◽  
John Hillier ◽  
Steven Crockett
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equity Pricing ◽  
Functional Efficiency ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine the properties of analysts’ cash flows from operations (CFO) forecast generated for Australian listed firms as a productive activity, within the wider processes of financial disclosure in Australia. Design/methodology/approach Two categories of criteria are adopted: first, basic predictive statistical performance relative to a benchmark model and earnings forecasts; and second, relevance for equity pricing, as indicated by the market reaction to cash flow or forecast error reactions. The final sample comprised 2,138 observations between 2001 and 2016 and several regression models are estimated to determine the relative performance and market reaction. Findings Analysts’ consensus cash flow forecasts demonstrate poor predictive performance relative to earnings forecasts. Cash flow forecasts are typically naïve extensions of earnings forecasts. Furthermore, cash flow forecasts appear to be of minimal use for equity market participants in complementing earnings forecasts’ role in informing firms’ equity pricing. Practical implications While analysts’ earnings forecasts are useful for making predictions, the role of analysts’ cash flow forecasts in capital market functional efficiency appears quite limited. Originality/value This study is one of few that examines comparative usefulness of analysts’ earnings and cash flow forecasts and their predictive power using the Australian setting. Additionally, it enriches the sparse international literature on such forecasts.

The role of state ownership on earnings quality: evidence across public and private European firms

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 312-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Gaio ◽  
Inês Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Earnings Quality ◽  
State Ownership ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Sample

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of state ownership on financial reporting quality regarding the characteristics of conservatism and earnings management. Design/methodology/approach Using a large sample of public and private European firms during the period 2003-2010, the authors test the hypotheses following Ball and Shivakumar’s (2005) model for conservatism and the modified Jones (1991) model proposed by Dechow and Sloan (1995) for earnings management. To ensure that the results are robust, the authors conduct sensitivity analysis with regard to potential endogeneity and selection bias. Findings The authors find that state-owned firms are less conservative than non-state-owned firms, which is consistent with the idea that there is less need for accounting conservatism due to government protection. The authors also show that capital markets play an important role in shaping the relation between state ownership and earnings management. Among public firms, the authors find that state-owned firms have higher abnormal accruals and worse accruals quality than non-state-owned firms, which suggests that state-owned firms are not immune to capital market pressures. Research limitations/implications The study has two limitations. First, as state-owned and non-state-owned firms face quite different incentive structures, management behavior might be determined by factors that have yet to be identified. Second, prior research results suggest an inverted U-shape relation between ownership concentration and earnings management (Ding et al., 2007). It would be interesting to investigate the impact of different levels of state ownership on earnings quality. Practical implications As the paper investigates the role of state ownership on earnings quality using a sample of European firms, it brings new insights regarding the role of state ownership in accounting quality and firm performance. In addition, it considers the role of capital markets in the relation between the quality of financial reporting and ownership by considering a sample with both public and private firms. Originality/value The study contributes to the debate about state intervention in the corporate sector, by extending the knowledge of the effects of government ownership on earnings quality by using a large sample of European firms. Furthermore, the authors also introduce the effect of capital market forces on managers’ behavior in state-owned and non-state-owned companies by analyzing private and publicly listed firms.

Passive but defiant: the role of innovative capabilities in knowledge management and corporate entrepreneurship

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azhar Khalil ◽  
Muhammad Khuram Khalil ◽  
Rashid Khalil
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Entrepreneurship ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Innovative Capabilities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to examine the role of organizational innovative capabilities (OIC) on the relationship between knowledge sharing (KS), corporate entrepreneurship (CE) and firm performance (FP). Specifically, this study uses the knowledge-based view to develop a model that examines the mentioned relationship. Design/methodology/approach Using survey data from 520 participants across 75 service sector companies in Thailand, measurement and structure models are tested through structural equation modeling to quantify the impact between constructs. Findings This study shows that KS and CE positively affect OIC and FP. A positive relationship is also found between KS and CE. The mediating impact of OIC strengthens the relationship between KS and CE on FP. Research limitations/implications Like all research using survey methods, the research is prone to respondent biases and generalizability. However, this paper has put the best effort to minimize such effects by rigorous methodological testing to avoid such biases. Practical implications The findings of this study suggest that to improve organizational learning and knowledge-based performance, commitment and understanding of the employees in the entire organization is crucial. KS significantly contributes to developing innovative abilities because of its characteristics of providing firm-specific and socially complex advantages. The way a firm transforms and exploits its knowledge may ascertain its level of innovativeness, such as coming up with certain problem-solving procedures and new product development according to the rapid change in the market demand. However, organizations may only instigate to effectively organize knowledge when their employees are ready to share knowledge. Continuous KS boosts entrepreneurial practices and contributes innovativeness across individuals, groups, units or the entire organization. Originality/value The relationship between CE, organization innovative capabilities and FP in the presence of KS is rarely discussed in both theoretical and empirical literature. This study contributes to the literature by arguing that apart from the direct impact of KS on FP, KS can lead the firms toward generating important competitive advantage by forming innovative capabilities that can significantly influence FP.

Godrej properties: valuation using the capital cash flow technique

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Rajni Kant Rajhans
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Firm Valuation ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Learning outcomes The case is focused to meet the following learning objectives: the readers will be able to recall basic cash flow estimation concepts; and the readers will be able to explain various features of capital cash flow (CCF). The participants will be able to implement the CCF model in real estate firm valuation. The participants will be able to compare CCF and free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) models. The participants will be able to evaluate the benefits of CCF over FCFF. The readers will be able to construct the CCF valuation model for firm valuation. Case overview/synopsis On 19th April 2019, Mr Kai, an analyst tracking real estate firms was excited to present to his team a new robust technique of firm valuation suitable for real estate companies, namely, the CCF technique and was also keen to deliberate on its application. Though the investment scope using this technique could be located in Godrej properties (GP), a reputed brand and the largest listed real estate developer by sales in 2018, yet, he was concerned about the assumptions of growth of real estate industry in India, in general, and the GP in particular. Importantly, this was because the real estate market in India was undergoing many structural changes. For instance, the buyers’ preferences were changing and unsold inventory in the industry was at its peak. Under these market conditions, an announcement was made by GP about a target return on equity of 20% in 2018–2023 expecting a dominant place in the real estate market in India, which also carried the threat of jeopardizing the reputation of GP, if under any circumstance the target was not accomplished. Complexity academic level Masters program. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS: 11 Strategy.

CSR, agency costs and investment-cash flow sensitivity: a mediated moderation analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwa Samet ◽  
Anis Jarboui
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Agency Costs ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediated Moderation ◽  
Flow Sensitivity ◽  
Cash Flow Sensitivity ◽  
Internal Funds ◽  
Investment Spending

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to document the relation between investment-cash flow sensitivity and a firm’s engagement in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities in European context. Specifically, this paper aims to empirically examine how CSR moderates the sensitivity between investment spending and firm internal funds. Design/methodology/approach The Euler equation technique approach is applied to test the sensitivity of investment to internally generated funds for a panel data set of 398 European companies listed in the STOXX Europe 600 during 2009-2014. Furthermore, a mediated moderation model is developed in order to examine the moderating role of CSR in the investment-cash flow sensitivity, as well as the mediating role of agency costs on the moderation effect of CSR. Findings The results show that CSR performance weakens the sensitivity of investment to internal funds; agency costs of free cash flow mediate the negative moderating effect of CSR on investment-cash flow sensitivity. Thus, this study demonstrates empirically that firms with socially responsible practices are better positioned to obtain financing in the capital markets through reducing market frictions as well as agency costs. Practical implications Firms are invited to engage more in CSR activities that reduce agency conflicts between management and shareholders. Originality/value The originality of this paper consists in proposing the establishment of both direct and indirect link between CSR and investment-cash flow sensitivity.

Product market competition, cash flow and corporate investments

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussein Ali Ahmad Abdoh ◽  
Oscar Varela
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Product Market ◽  
Product Market Competition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of product market competition on capital spending (investments) financed by cash flow (CF), and the role of financial constraints (FC) on these effects. Design/methodology/approach The Herfindahl-Hirschman index of concentration measures competition. Earnings retention, working capital, the Kaplan and Zingales (1997) index and CF shortfalls measure FC. Regressions relating capital spending to competition are performed for the full sample, as well as financially constrained and unconstrained, and growth and value firms’ sub-samples. For robustness, large reductions in import tariffs are examined to exogenously measure competition, with the impact of these on capital spending tested via the difference-in-difference method. Findings The results show that competition fosters valuable investments when firms are financially unconstrained, especially for growth firms, and reduces these investments when they are financially constrained, especially for value firms. Practical implications The role of policy makers in alleviating FC should be focused toward growth firms that operate in competitive industries. As well, increasing financial pressure on value firms in competitive industries can have desirable effects, as it forces these firms to reduce investment inefficiency. Originality/value Many firm-specific and environmental factors drive the relation between competition and investment. Khanna and Tice (2000) find profitable firms increasing and highly levered firms decreasing investments in response to Wal-Mart’s entry into their markets. Jiang et al. (2015) suggest that environments with predictable growth drive a positive relation between competition and investments. This study claims that another factor that affects this relation is the firm’s level of FC.

scholarly journals BNDES loans and the financial constraints of Brazilian publicly traded companies

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 567-582
Author(s):  
Walter Eclache da Silva ◽  
Eduardo Kayo ◽  
Roy Martelanc
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flow Sensitivity ◽  
Multiplier Effect ◽  
Cash Flow Sensitivity ◽  
Development Banks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether companies that contracted loans from the Brazilian National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) between 2002 and 2014 were able to invest more than companies that did not. The literature on financial constraints, particularly that based on the investment-cash flow sensitivity model, is among the most studied and controversial in the area of finance, and the discussion on the role of development banks is equally controversial. Design/methodology/approach The main econometric model of this study was based on the investment-cash flow sensitivity model, with the incorporation of a binary variable that captures the role of the BNDES. This model is applied to a sample of companies listed on the B3 from 2002 to 2014. Findings This study shows that loans from the BNDES amplify the effects of cash flow on investments, generating a kind of credit multiplier. An important role of development banks is to reduce the financial constraints typical of developing countries. Research limitations/implications The use of the cash flow sensitivity model in companies that contracted loans from the BNDES is a relevant instrument to test the effect of the BNDES on companies with financial constraints. Practical implications The contracting of BNDES loans by companies can affect both capital structure and cash generation, particularly in companies or years in which there was financial constraint. Social implications Due to the nature of the BNDES as a development bank, there are ramifications in terms of the generation of employment and income inherent to the mission of this type of institution. Knowing the multiplier effect on the cash flow potential of companies has a direct impact on their preservation, enabling them to maintain and expand the supply of jobs. Originality/value This study is the first to integrate two important areas of study. From the theoretical perspective, this study provides evidence on the relationship between the BNDES and company financial constraints that open new avenues of research. From the managerial point of view, the evidence of the multiplier effect is highly important for the management of the capital structure and cash flow of companies.

scholarly journals Do Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Improve Firm Value?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Oh ◽  
Sam Bock Park ◽  
Jong Hyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Earnings Quality ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Positive Effect

We examine whether analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve firm value. First, we analyze whether the joint issuance of financial analysts’ earnings and cash flow forecasts improve firm value. Second, we analyze whether the quality of analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve firm value. The empirical results of our study are as follows. First, the joint issuance of analysts’ earnings and cash flow forecasts has a significantly positive effect on firm value; providing cash flow forecasts reduces information asymmetry and increases earnings quality, thereby increasing corporate value. Second, the quality of analysts’ cash flow forecasts has a significantly positive effect on firm value; the more accurate cash flow forecasts are, the higher firm value is. Our study provides empirical evidence for that the conclusion that cash flow forecasting information produced by financial analysts provides useful information for capital market participants in economic decision making.

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