Public investment, inflation persistence and central bank independence

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 976-986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanos Papadamou ◽  
Eleftherios Spyromitros ◽  
Panagiotis Tsintzos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Inflation Persistence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Banker ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate, both theoretically and empirically, the institutional setting of monetary policy making that mitigates the effects of productive public investment on inflation persistence. Design/methodology/approach In the theoretical approach, the authors consider a simple monetary game model à la Barro-Gordon introducing, apart from stochastic output shocks, indexed wage contracts and public investment effects. Then, the authors empirically produce inflation persistence and public investment persistence by estimating a first-order autoregressive model in a fixed rolling window of 36 months for the UK and also use a dummy in order to incorporate the regime switch in monetary policy since 1997, giving a clear increase in the level of central bank independence. Findings The theoretical framework suggests that an independent central banker could better manage inflation expectations and therefore inflation persistence despite the occurrence of persistent public investment shocks. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the appointment of a conservative and independent central banker could absorb adverse effects on inflation dynamics resulting from persistent expansionary fiscal policies. Empirical evidence in the UK indicates that the creation of an independent monetary policy committee reduces the positive link between public investment and inflation persistence. Practical implications From a monetary policy perspective view, the best response to public investment policies is to increase the degree of independence to alleviate effects on inflation dynamics. From the perspective of fiscal policy, an independent central banker can provide the necessary conditions to undertake a long-run public investment plan, since long-run growth will not be undermined by adverse inflation inertia. Originality/value The authors introduce, in the debate of inflation persistence, both theoretically and empirically, the role of public investment and monetary policy design.

Public investment and inclusive growth in Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (12) ◽  
pp. 1669-1691
Author(s):  
Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun ◽  
Philip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Adebayo Adedokun ◽  
Olumide Steven Ayodele
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Automatic Stabilization ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Productive Employment

PurposeThe increasing debate on the viability of broad-based productive employment in stimulating the participatory tendencies of growth makes it instructive to inquire how the African “Big Five” have fared in their quests to ensure growth inclusiveness through public investment-led fiscal policy.Design/methodology/approachTime varying structures and nonlinearities in the government investment series are captured through the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag, asymmetric impulse responses and variance decomposition estimation techniques.FindingsStudy findings show that positive investment shocks stimulate growth inclusiveness by enabling access to opportunities through job creation and productive employment for the populace; this result is evident for Morocco and Algeria. However, there is a non-negligible evidence that shocks due to decline in the government investment manifest in insufficient capital stocks and limited investment opportunities, impede access to opportunities by the populace, hinder labour employability and make growth less inclusive. Furthermore, all short-run findings corroborate long-run results regarding the reaction of inclusive growth to positive investment shocks with the exclusion of South Africa; which, unlike its long-run finding, shows that shocks due to increases in investment can foster growth inclusiveness. Also, in respect to short-run negative investment shocks, Nigeria is the only country that does not align its long-run findings.Practical implicationsThat public investment shocks make or mar inclusive growth effectiveness shows the need for appropriate fiscal policy consolidation and automatic stabilization guidelines to ensure buffers against shocks and to enhance government investment generation efficiency for a sustainable inclusive growth process that is more participatory in Africa.Originality/valueThis study is the first to accommodate possibilities of shocks in the inclusivity of growth analysis for the five biggest African economies which jointly account for over half of the recorded growth in the continent. As such, there is quantitative evidence that government investment is a potent determinant of growth inclusiveness and it is susceptible to structural changes and time variation of shocks.

Empirical appraisal of fiscal stability: the case of Ghana

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 753-779
Author(s):  
Nana Kwame Akosah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Poor Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to appraise the stability of Ghana’s fiscal policy by assessing government’s reaction in the past to rising public debt over the last three decades. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly data spanning 1990Q1-2013Q2, the study evaluated the mean reverting properties of Ghana’s public debt and also estimate the fiscal policy reaction function. The complementary estimation techniques include Pesaran et al. (2001) bound testing cointegration test, differencing method and also Granger two-step cointegration methods. Findings – Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2013Q2, the study found the fiscal policy to be unstable in the 1990s, necessitating the adoption of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries’ initiative in 2001. The fiscal situation however relatively stabilizes afterwards following the external debt relief in 2001. Nevertheless, the study reveals that the recent fiscal policy (since 2006) seems to be confronted with tremendous fiscal pressures, exacerbated by fiscal excesses during election cycles as well as excessive domestic and external borrowings. In addition, the economic growth-debt link was found to be weak, though debt appears to adversely affect economic growth. Research limitations/implications – The study does not thoroughly explore the possibility of non-linear relationship between public debt and primary balance. Also, the result could be different using different data frequencies. Practical implications – The state of government finance has implications on the monetary policy and economic growth prospects of an economy. As an inflation targeting central bank since 2002, a successful monetary policy implementation that reins in inflation requires fiscal policy that curtails fiscal volatilities originating from imprudent behaviour of government. Therefore, the looming fiscal pressures in recent times would impair the effective implementation of the inflation targeting framework by the central bank, and also retard economic growth as the bulk of these expenditures are usually recurrent in the case of Ghana. Originality/value – This is the first paper to employ complementary econometric techniques to empirically evaluate fiscal sustainability in Ghana.

scholarly journals Independence Before Conservatism: Transparency, Politics and Central Bank Design

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Hughes Hallett ◽  
Diana N. Weymark
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Optimal Outcomes ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Stage Game ◽  
The Government ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

Abstract The problem of monetary policy delegation is formulated as a two-stage game between the government and the central bank. In the first stage the government chooses the institutional design of the central bank. Monetary and fiscal policy are implemented in the second stage. When fiscal policy is taken into account, there is a continuum of combinations of central bank independence and conservatism that produce optimal outcomes. This indeterminacy is resolved by appealing to practical considerations. In particular, it is argued that full central bank independence facilitates the greatest degree of policy transparency and political coherence.

Central bank independence, elections and fiscal policy in Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 809-830 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abel Mawuko Agoba ◽  
Joshua Yindenaba Abor ◽  
Kofi Osei ◽  
Jarjisu Sa-Aadu ◽  
Benjamin Amoah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Performance ◽  
Fiscal Balance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to primarily investigate the ability of independent central banks (central bank independence (CBI)) to improve fiscal performances in Africa, accounting for election years, and also to examine whether the effectiveness of CBI in improving fiscal performance is enhanced by higher political institutional quality. Design/methodology/approach Using recent CBI data from Garriga (2016) on 48 African countries, 90 other developing countries and 40 developed countries over the period 1970–2012, the authors apply a two stage system GMM with Windmeijer (2005) small sample robust correction estimator to examine the impact of CBI and elections on fiscal policy in Africa, other developing countries and developed countries. Findings The authors provide evidence that unlike in other developing countries and developed countries, CBI does not significantly improve fiscal performance in Africa. However, the effectiveness of CBI in improving fiscal performance in Africa is enhanced by higher levels of institutional quality. Although elections directly worsen fiscal performance in Africa, institutional quality enhances CBI’s effect on improving fiscal performance in election years across Africa, other developing countries and developed countries. Practical implications The findings of the study are significant as they provide insight into the benefits of having strong institutions to complement independent central banks in order to control fiscal indiscipline in election years. Originality/value The study is the first among the studies of CBI-fiscal policy nexus, to measure fiscal policy using net central bank claims on government as a percentage of GDP. In addition to the use of fiscal balance, this study also uses cyclically adjusted fiscal balance as a measure of fiscal policy. This is a critical channel through which independent central banks can constrain government spending. It also compares findings in Africa to other developing countries, noting some differences.

scholarly journals Does the monetary policy have any short-run and long-run effect on economic growth? A developing and a developed country perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Sayemul Islam ◽  
Md. Emran Hossain ◽  
Sudipto Chakrobortty ◽  
Nishat Sultana Ema
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Uk

PurposeThe study aims to empirically examine the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth, as well as to explore the long-run and the short-run effect of monetary policy on the economic growth of a developing country (Bangladesh) and a developed country (the United Kingdom).Design/methodology/approachDepending on data availability, the study employed secondary data covering the period of 1980–2019. The augmented Dickey–Fuller test and the Phillips–Perron test were used for the stationarity test. Further, the F-bounds test was run to justify the long-run relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. Thereafter, long-run coefficients were revealed from the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and short-run coefficients from the error correction model. Furthermore, the vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality approach was employed to demonstrate the causality of studied variables. Lastly, different diagnostics tests ensured the robustness of the models.FindingsF-bounds test outcomes suggest that monetary policy has a long-run relationship with economic growth in both countries. Long-run coefficients revealed that money supply has a positive long-run impact on economic growth in both countries. Unlike the UK, the exchange rate exhibits an adverse effect on the economic growth of Bangladesh. The bank rate seems to promote economic growth for the UK. Findings also depict that increase in lending interest rates hurts the economic growth for both countries. Besides, the short-run coefficients portray random effects at different lags in both cases. Lastly, causality among studied variables is revealed using the VECM Granger causality approach.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study lies in consideration of both developing and developed countries in the same study.

Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russia

2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
The Real

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.

The reflexive turn in key account management

2014 ◽  
Vol 48 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 2071-2104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Vanharanta ◽  
Alan J.P. Gilchrist ◽  
Andrew D. Pressey ◽  
Peter Lenney
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Key Account Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Account Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Account ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Uk

Purpose – This study aims to address how and why do formal key account management (KAM) programmes hinder effective KAM management, and how can the problems of formalization in KAM be overcome. Recent empirical studies have reported an unexpected negative relationship between KAM formalization and performance. Design/methodology/approach – An 18-month (340 days) ethnographic investigation was undertaken in the UK-based subsidiary of a major US sports goods manufacturer. This ethnographic evidence was triangulated with 113 in-depth interviews. Findings – This study identifies how and why managerial reflexivity allows a more effectively combining of formal and post-bureaucratic KAM practices. While formal KAM programmes provide a means to initiate, implement and control KAM, they have an unintended consequence of increasing organizational bureaucracy, which may in the long-run hinder the KAM effectiveness. Heightened reflexivity, including “wayfinding”, is identified as a means to overcome many of these challenges, allowing for reflexively combining formal with post-bureaucratic KAM practices. Research limitations/implications – The thesis of this paper starts a new line of reflexive KAM research, which draws theoretical influences from the post-bureaucratic turn in management studies. Practical implications – This study seeks to increase KAM implementation success rates and long-term effectiveness of KAM by conceptualizing the new possibilities offered by reflexive KAM. This study demonstrates how reflexive skills (conceptualized as “KAM wayfinding”) can be deployed during KAM implementation and for its continual improvement. Further, the study identifies how KAM programmes can be used to train organizational learning regarding KAM. Furthermore, this study identifies how and why post-bureaucratic KAM can offer additional benefits after an organization has learned key KAM capabilities. Originality/value – A new line of enquiry is identified: the reflexive-turn in KAM. This theoretical position allows us to identify existing weakness in the extant KAM literature, and to show a practical means to improve the effectiveness of KAM. This concerns, in particular, the importance of managerial reflexivity and KAM wayfinding as a means to balance the strengths and weaknesses of formal and post-bureaucratic KAM.

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