scholarly journals Modeling the determinants of dry bulk FFA trading volume from a cross-market perspective of spot and forward

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-275
Author(s):  
Shiyuan Zheng ◽  
Shun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Step Model ◽  
Covariance Term ◽  
Demand Volatility ◽  
Procurement Strategies ◽  
Market Perspective

Purpose This study aims to propose a theoretical model to characterize the optimal forward freight agreement (FFA) procurement strategies and investigate the determinants of FFA trading activities from a new cross-market perspective. Findings A two-step model specification is used to empirically test the theoretical results for the Capesize, Panamax and Supramax sectors. It is found that spot demand has a positive relation with FFA trading volume for all three sectors. Moreover, spot demand volatility has a negative relation, while the correlation between spot demand and spot rate has a positive relation with FFA trading volume for the Capesize and Panamax sectors. Originality/value The results show that the expected spot demand is scaled by a “quantity premium,” which is the product of a demand covariance term, a demand riskiness term and a demand volatility term. This can be used by the traders in the FFA market to construct their hedging strategies.

Returns and volume

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-473
Author(s):  
Panos Fousekis
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causal Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The relationship between returns and trading volume is central in financial economics because it has both a theoretical interest and important practical implications with regard to the structure of financial markets and the level of speculation activity. The aim of this study is to provide new insights into the association between returns and trading volume by investigating their kernel (instantaneous) causality. The empirical analysis relies on time series data from 22 commodities futures markets (agricultural, energy and metals) in the USA. Design/methodology/approach Non-parametric (local linear) regressions are applied to daily data on returns and on trading activity; generalized correlation measures are computed and their differences are subjected to formal statistical testing. Findings The results suggest that raw returns are likely to kernel-cause volume and volume is likely to kernel-cause price volatility. The patterns of causal order are generally in line with what is stipulated by the relevant theory, they provide guidance for model specification and they appear to explain the empirical evidence on temporal (lag-lead) causality between the same pairs of variables obtained in earlier works. Originality/value The concept of kernel causality has very recently become a part of the toolkit for econometric/statistical analysis. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the notion of kernel (instantaneous) causality to provide new evidence on a relationship that is of keen interest to investors, professional economists and policymakers.

The relationship between trading volume and exchange rate volatility: linear or nonlinear?

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-38
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Futures ◽  
Information Hypothesis ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Mixture Of Distribution Hypothesis

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the linear and nonlinear relations between returns volatility and trading volume for the Indian currency futures market.Design/methodology/approachTo examine the contemporaneous relation between returns volatility and volume, the author uses the generalized method of moment estimator. For the linear causal relation, the author makes use of Granger (1969) bivariate vector autoregression model. The author tests for nonlinear Granger causality between returns volatility and trading volume based on a modified version of the Baek and Brock (1992) nonparametric technique developed by Hiemstra and Jones (1994).FindingsThe results indicate a negative contemporaneous relation between returns volatility and trading volume; therefore, the mixture of distribution hypothesis is not supported. The results of both linear and nonlinear Granger causality between futures returns volatility and trading volume indicate a significant bidirectional relation between the two variables lending support to the sequential arrival of information hypothesis. The results are robust to divergence of opinions as proxied by open interest.Practical implicationsThe findings of this paper are important for the participants in the market and regulators. The participants in the market require alternatives to diversify their risk. The significant causal relation between returns volatility and trading volume implies that trading volume helps predict the futures prices and should lead to creation of more reliable hedging strategies for investment purposes. Furthermore, it may interest the regulators who need to decide upon the appropriateness of their policies in the currency futures market.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, there is no study that investigates the forecast ability of trading volume to futures returns volatility in an emerging currency futures market. Given that currency futures market is one of the largest markets in the world, and Indian rupee has seen wide fluctuations in the recent years, it seems exciting to explore the price–volume relation in the Indian currency futures market.

Revisiting the price-volume relationship: a cross-currency evidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Futures ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Volume Relationship ◽  
Volume Relation ◽  
Mixture Of Distribution Hypothesis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the contemporaneous and causal relationship between returns (volatility) and trading volume in the Indian currency futures market for selected currency pairs; USD-INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR, from August 2008 to December 2014. Design/methodology/approach The data for all the currency futures series has been taken from National Stock Exchange of India Limited which represents the daily settlement prices along with trading volume. The contemporaneous returns-volume relation is tested using the generalized method of moments, and Granger-causality framework impulse response function is used to test the predictive ability of returns (volatility) and volume for each other. Findings The author reports a positive contemporaneous relationship between futures returns and trading volume which persists even after controlling for heteroskedasticity providing support to mixture of distribution hypothesis. The results show a unidirectional Granger causality from futures returns to volume. However, there is a significant bidirectional Granger causality between returns volatility and volume lending support to sequential arrival of information hypothesis. Next, the results for cross-currencies show significant influence of US dollar on the volume and returns of all other currencies. Overall, the author suggests that the short- to medium-term movements in the currency markets are dominated by market microstructure and not by fundamentals. Practical implications The findings of this paper are very important for the participants in the market and regulators. The participants in the market require alternatives to diversify their risk. The significant relationship between futures returns (volatility) and trading volume implies that the current trading volume help predict the futures prices and should lead to creation of more reliable hedging strategies for investment purposes. Further, it may interest the regulators who need to decide upon the appropriateness of their policies in the currency futures market. Based on returns-volume relation, they need to set forth market restrictions such as daily price movement and position limits. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, no study has yet investigated the forecast ability of trading volume to price changes and their volatility in the Indian currency futures market. Given that currency futures market is one of the largest markets in the world, and Indian rupee has seen wide fluctuations in the recent years, it seems exciting to explore the price-volume relationship in the Indian currency futures market.

Disposition effect at the market level: evidence from Indian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-82
Author(s):  
Sravani Bharandev ◽  
Sapar Narayan Rao
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the disposition effect at market level and propose an appropriate reference point for testing disposition at market level. Design/methodology/approach This is an empirical study conducted on 500 index stocks of NSE500 (National Stock Exchange). Winning and losing days for each stock are calculated using 52-week high and low prices as reference points. To test disposition effect, abnormal trading volumes of stocks are regressed on their percentage of winning (losing) days. Further using ANOVA, the difference between mean of percentage of winning (losing) days of high abnormal trading volume deciles and low abnormal trading volume deciles is tested. Findings Results show that a stock’s abnormal trading volume is positively influenced by the percentage of winning days whereas percentage of losing days show no such effect. Findings are consistent even after controlling for volatility and liquidity. ANOVA results show the presence of high percentage of winning days in higher deciles of abnormal trading volumes and no such pattern in case of losing days confirms the presence of disposition effect. Further an ex post analysis indicates that disposition prone investors accumulate losses. Originality/value This is the first study, which proposes the use of 52-week high and low prices as reference points to test the market-level disposition effect. Findings of this study enhance the limited literature available on disposition effect in emerging markets by providing evidence from Indian stock markets.

Short‐sell moratorium effects on regional bank performance

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 92-110
Author(s):  
Michael Devaney ◽  
William L. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
Bank Risk ◽  
Too Big To Fail ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Naked Short Selling ◽  
Regional Bank ◽  
Capm Model ◽  
Short Sell ◽  
Regional Banks

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of the 2008 SEC short‐sell moratorium on regional bank risk and return. The paper also examines the decline in “failures to deliver” securities in the wake of SEC short‐sell moratorium.Design/methodology/approachIn total, six regional bank portfolios are derived and the beta coefficients from a CAPM model are estimated using the integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (IGARCH) method accounting for the short‐sell moratorium. Data on 110 regional banks in six US regions from January 2002 to December 30, 2011 are used to estimate the model.FindingsThe ban on naked short selling and the SEC short‐sell moratorium significantly increased individual bank risk for a majority of banks in six geographic regions, but also increased return in three of three regions. There was also reduced naked short selling as failures to deliver securities declined sharply after the September 2008 moratorium took effect.Originality/valueRegional banks have generally not achieved the size needed to be deemed “too big to fail” by policy‐makers. Thus, policy changes such as the SEC short‐sell moratorium might be expected to have larger effects on regional banks than on larger banks, which might be shielded from the policy change by having achieved “too big to fail” status. The authors' results are consistent with research that has shown that short‐sell restrictions increase risk by reducing liquidity and trading volume.

How abusive supervision climate affects team creativity: the contingent role of task interdependence

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenghao Men ◽  
Lei Yue ◽  
Huo Weiwei ◽  
Bing Liu ◽  
Guangwei Li
Keyword(s):  
Collective Efficacy ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Group Identification ◽  
Abusive Supervision ◽  
Task Interdependence ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Team Creativity ◽  
Content Type

PurposeDrawing on theories of social information processing and social identity, the authors explore how abusive supervision climate affects team creativity in a Chinese cultural context. The authors propose that this relation will be mediated by collective efficacy and group identification and moderated by task interdependenceDesign/methodology/approachThe study conducted a confirmatory factor analysis and hierarchical regression to analyze the paired data from 67 research and development (R&D) teams involving 378 employees and employers in a Chinese cultural context.FindingsResults demonstrate that abusive supervision climate was negatively related to team creativity, fully mediated by collective efficacy and group identification in a Chinese cultural context. In addition, task interdependence strengthened the positive relation between collective efficacy and team creativity, as well the positive relation between group identification and team creativity.Originality/valueAlthough research has explored how abusive supervision climate influences individual creativity, few studies have investigated the relation between abusive supervision climate and team creativity in a Chinese cultural context. This study is one of the first to explore how abusive supervision climate affects team creativity in a Chinese cultural context and examine the moderating role of task interdependence in the relation between abusive supervision climate and team creativity.

scholarly journals Realizing your strategy’s potential: a seven-step model for its effective execution

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 35-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Galpin
Keyword(s):  
Middle Managers ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Senior Executives ◽  
Strategy Execution ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Step Model ◽  
Managing Strategy ◽  
Execution Model ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose A seven-step Strategy Execution Model provides a tested guide to agile implementation. Design/methodology/approach Pragmatic actions, key deliverables and a case example for each of the seven steps in the model are presented. Findings Firms that focus more on strategic planning than implementation are often plagued with execution issues. Whereas, organizations that are able to execute their strategies as a well managed, integrated process have a much better chance of realizing the full potential of their plans. Practical implications Supporting the experience of numerous management teams, research indicates that poor execution often squanders the value companies anticipate from innovative, advantageous strategic initiatives. To minimize the likelihood of mismanagement, companies need a repeatable process that provides an integrated and actionable approach to effective strategy execution. Originality/value Senior executives and middle managers need a structured, coordinated system for managing strategy implementation. The author’s seven-step method has been tested in practice and refined. It emphasizes communication and agile adaptability.

Volatility, trading volume and open interest in futures markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 629-653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Floros ◽  
Enrique Salvador
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Empirical Relation ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Relevant Role ◽  
Stage Estimation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of trading volume and open interest on volatility of futures markets. The authors capture the size and change in speculative behaviour in futures markets by examining the role of liquidity variables (trading volume and open interest) in the behaviour of futures prices. Design/methodology/approach The sample includes daily data covering the period 1996-2014 from 36 international futures markets (including currencies, commodities, stock indices, interest rates and bonds). The authors employ a two-stage estimation methodology: first, the authors employ a E-GARCH model and consider the asymmetric response of volatility to shocks of different sign. Further, the authors consider a regression framework to examine the contemporaneous relationships between volatility, trading volume and open interest. To quantify the percentage of volatility that is caused by liquidity variables, the authors also regress the estimated volatilities on the measures of open interest and trading volume. Findings The authors find that: market depth has an effect on the volatility of futures markets but the direction of this effect depends on the type of contract, and there is evidence of a positive contemporaneous relationship between trading volume and futures volatility for all futures contracts. Impulse-response functions also show that trading volume has a more relevant role in explaining market volatility than open interest. Practical implications These results are recommended to financial managers and analysts dealing with futures markets. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study has yet considered a complete database of futures markets to investigate the empirical relation between price changes (volatility), trading volume and open interest in futures markets.

Assessing some stylized facts about financial market indexes: a Markov copula approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osvaldo Candido Silva Filho ◽  
Flavio Augusto Ziegelmann
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Type Equation ◽  
Constant Term ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
Market Indexes

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to measure and evaluate the relationship between returns-volatility and trading volume and returns and volatility of financial market indexes using time-varying copulas. Design/methodology/approach – The time dynamic dependence parameter is allowed to evolve according to a restricted ARMA-type equation which includes a constant term that is driven by a hidden two-state first-order Markov chain. Findings – In using this time dynamics in conjunction with non-elliptical distribution functions and tail dependence measure, the authors are allowing for (and focusing on) non-linearities in the returns-volume-volatility relationship. The results support the assumption that current trading volume provides information about future volatility as well as that there is a negative relationship between returns and their volatilities in financial market indexes. Originality/value – The authors provide an interesting empirical interpretation for the regimes the authors have identified: in the high dependence regime the sequential information arrival hypothesis and/or noise trading hypothesis are valid, consequently future volatility prediction is possible and persistent but does not last indefinitely; in the low dependence regime, the future volatility prediction is more unlikely to occur, since both trading volume and return negatives have a low (near zero) relation with future volatility.

Investors overconfidence behaviour at Bombay Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 613-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada ◽  
Venkata Subrahmanya Sarma Veluri
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Attribution Bias

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to empirically test the overconfidence hypothesis at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).Design/methodology/approachThe study applies bivariate vector autoregression to perform the impulse-response analysis and EGARCH models to understand whether there is self-attribution bias and overconfidence behavior among the investors.FindingsThe study shows the empirical evidence in support of overconfidence hypothesis. The results show that the overconfident investors overreact to private information and underreact to the public information. Based on EGARCH specifications, it is observed that self-attribution bias, conditioned by right forecasts, increases investors’ overconfidence and the trading volume. Finally, the analysis of the relation between return volatility and trading volume shows that the excessive trading of overconfident investors makes a contribution to the observed excessive volatility.Research limitations/implicationsThe study focused on self-attribution and overconfidence biases using monthly data. Further studies can be encouraged to test the proposed hypotheses on daily data and also other behavioral biases.Practical implicationsInsights from the study suggest that the investors should perform a post-analysis of each investment so that they become aware of past behavioral mistakes and stop continuing the same. This might help investors to minimize the negative impact of self-attribution and overconfidence on their expected utility.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the investors’ overconfidence behavior at market-level data in BSE, India.

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