Georgieva will face World Bank diplomatic test

Subject World Bank leadership change. Significance The arrival of Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva as second-in-command at the World Bank Group may have a steadying effect on the institution, which faces uncertainties over its future size, shape and role as the United States retreats from multilateralism following the election of President Donald Trump. Impacts Georgieva’s insider background and experience as EU budget chief will help her argue for continued US funding of the Bank. The concept of an ‘infrastucture finance cascade’ may weaken arguments that the Bank should withdraw from middle-income countries. Should the US administration block a World Bank capital deal, emerging economies could desert the Bank and favour new alternatives.

Subject Spending the World Bank capital increase Significance The shareholders of the World Bank Group (WBG) agreed to a negotiated financial and policy package at the April 2018 bi-annual meeting. The proposed 13-billion-dollar paid-in capital increase will be the largest on record. Although the United States will not participate in the increase, Chinese and US concessions enabled the grand bargain, signalling the resilience of multilateralism in global development. Impacts The deal will significantly benefit China as a shareholder but will be to its detriment as a World Bank borrower. Financing will become cheaper and more plentiful for middle-income countries of below 6,895 dollars gross national income (GNI) per capita. Private investors will gradually gain access to more WBG instruments and to new markets in low-income and fragile countries.


Author(s):  
Samuel Mills ◽  
Sheila Jagannathan ◽  
Jane Kim Lee ◽  
Bahie Mary Rassekh

Abstract The World Bank Group (WBG), in partnership with the Global Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Group, the Korea Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the WBG Open Learning Campus, launched the first comprehensive CRVS eLearning course in May 2017. The development of this course demonstrates the commitment and collaboration of development partners and governments working closely together in building the capacity of national institutions to improve CRVS systems in low- and middle-income countries. As of December 2018, over 2300 learners from 137 countries have enrolled in the course. This paper discusses how the course has been developed, disseminated, and evaluated thus far. It also presents the challenges faced and how the course has improved based on feedback from course participants.


Significance The World Bank Group has rushed to make country response funds worth USD12bn available on a fast-track basis. The diversion of resources and equipment has undermined efforts to tackle COVID-19 in many countries. Impacts The diversion of COVID-19 resources will disproportionately affect the poor and marginalised groups who cannot afford private provision. COVID-19-related corruption scandals will increase public frustration and fuel protests. Misuse of COVID-19 funds will make it harder for revenue-strapped governments to persuade Western donors to provide further aid.


Subject Politicisation of central banking. Significance Political leaders have actively interfered with or threatened the independence of central banks this year in Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, the EU, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Myanmar, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, the United States, Venezuela and Zimbabwe, according to an academic study that tracks quarterly trends. Impacts If political pressures on central banks lead to higher prices, it could take years of tighter policies and slower growth to curb inflation. Decades of low inflation are embedded in expectations, but political interference could begin to unravel those beliefs. Some commentators will continue to suggest that politicians are right to transfer attention from inflation towards jobs and other goals. Economists largely agree on the importance of curbing price gains and see run-away inflation as the cost of prioritising political needs. Low-to-middle-income countries are more susceptible to political interference in central banking and will struggle to escape it.


Author(s):  
Samuel Mills ◽  
Jane Kim Lee ◽  
Bahie Mary Rassekh

Abstract In collaboration with development partners, the World Bank Group (WBG) has been working to strengthen civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low- and middle-income countries through lending operations, technical assistance projects, advisory services and analytics, and knowledge sharing at various international, regional, and national conferences and fora and through publications. In 2017, it launched a comprehensive CRVS eLearning course, which provides practical tools and approaches to achieving twenty-first-century state-of-the-art CRVS systems that are linked to identity management systems and are tailored to local contexts. Some of the key lessons learned from the various initiatives and projects are presented in the eight peer-reviewed manuscripts included in this issue.


2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (8) ◽  
pp. 984-989
Author(s):  
Jung Gi Min ◽  
Rohit K. Khosla ◽  
Catherine Curtin

Objective: To increase access to high-quality and multiregional databases in global epidemiology of cleft surgeries through partnership with an NGO. Design: The study retrospectively analyzes 34 801 primary palate surgeries in 70+ countries from the 2016 electronic health records of an non-governmental organization (NGO). The study also utilizes the Kids’ Inpatient Database to compare the epidemiology of primary cleft palate surgeries in the United States. Participants: Patient records of those undergoing primary cleft palate surgeries only. Main Outcome Measures: Region, age, sex, type of cleft, laterality of cleft. Results: Key findings show that average age of those receiving primary cleft palate surgery in the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was 1.95 years. The distribution of males and females receiving surgery corresponds to the US national data. More hard cleft palates were on the left side (66.18%) than the right side (33.82%), independent of gender and region. Conclusions: Databases from an established NGO can be used to enhance our understanding of the disease characteristics in these regions. By increasing the information available regarding cleft surgeries in the LMIC, we hope to increase awareness of the similarities and differences in surgeries across various regions, as part of an effort to inform the goals set by Global Surgery 2030 initiative by the Lancet Commission.


Significance Kim's departure creates unforeseen turbulence at the institution, whose corporate commitments around climate change, gender and renewable energy are anathema to the current US administration. Impacts If the US nominee is an ideological conservative, World Bank relations with either the United States or other shareholders will be damaged. Short-term impacts on Bank operations will be minimal. Kim’s belief that he can affect “global issues” more in the private sector emphasises the importance of the Bank reviving its global role.


Significance Global economic activity is deteriorating widely. This is despite the fact that the US-China trade conflict is not escalating, China is loosening fiscal policy and the United States and euro-area are committing to looser monetary policy. On April 3 the Asian Development Bank reduced its 2019 growth forecast for developing Asia to 5.7%, down from 5.9% a year ago, and the WTO reduced its forecast for 2019 growth in global trade volumes to 2.6%, from 3.7% in September. Impacts David Malpass became World Bank president this month and concerns will linger about his alignment with Trump’s ‘America First’ policies. If the US call to double the IMF’s ‘New arrangements to borrow’ passes, the debate over a permanent capital increase will be pushed back. A no-deal Brexit may push UK GDP into recession, hurting others as Germany, France and Spain’s UK exports sum 10 billion dollars or more. US-EU relations could deteriorate as the US trade body threatens billions of dollars of tariffs in retaliation for EU Airbus subsidies.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 733-756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Inklaar ◽  
Addisu A. Lashitew ◽  
Marcel P. Timmer

Misallocation of resources across firms leads to lower aggregate productivity. In this paper, we provide new estimates of manufacturing productivity differences across countries and establish by how much they would be reduced if such misallocation were eliminated. Using World Bank survey data for formal manufacturing firms in 52 low- and middle-income countries, we show that manufacturing productivity would increase by an average of 62%, but productivity gaps relative to the United States would remain large. We also find that lower-income countries do not have more to gain from reducing misallocation, as efficiency of resource allocation is uncorrelated with income levels.


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