The reshoring decision under uncertainty in the post-COVID-19 era

Purpose Using insights from the supply chain resilience perspective and the international business literature, this study aims to investigate the determinants of firms’ decisions to reshore manufacturing under the high levels of uncertainty brought about by the ongoing US–China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The proposed conceptual framework is tested using survey data collected from 702 Taiwanese firms with manufacturing in China. The firms were drawn from a database compiled by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs. Findings The results show that two supply chain factors (tariffs and supply chain completeness) and two non-location-bound factors (labor cost and material cost) are critical determinants of the decision to reshore under uncertainty. Originality/value This research elucidates and empirically validates several factors that influence the reshoring decision in uncertain environments. The findings provide valuable theoretical, practical and strategic insights into how firms should manage their value chains in the post-COVID-19 era.

Trade Policy Uncertainty, Innovation and Total Factor Productivity

This paper explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) shock on China’s total factor productivity. Using economic panel data for China, OECD countries, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Singapore from the period 2003–2019, in this paper, we treat U.S.–China trade frictional events in 2016 and 2017 as a quasi-experiment to study the impact of TPU surge on China’s TFP under the synthetic control method (SCM) and generalized synthetic control method (GSCM), treating the OECD countries, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Singapore as a control group. We found that TPU surge has a significantly negative causal effect on China’s TFP. SCM analysis, taking 2016 (2017) as the policy implementation time, showed that the average TFP loss borne by China due to trade policy uncertainty in 2017 and 2018 was 2.7% (3.5%). The VAR model showed that China’s trade policy uncertainty reduces China’s TFP through two channels: the shrinking channel of domestic R&D innovation, and the shrinking channel of the domestic sector’s use of foreign patents. This conclusion is robust according to the GSCM. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to examine the long-term technological impact of TPU surge during U.S.–China trade frictional events. Our findings suggest that trade friction harms technological progress, and reducing TPU can significantly enhance innovation and TFP.