New hurdles may not derail Europe’s Nord Stream 2

Significance In late March and early April, Germany and Finland issued permits for the construction of the pipeline. The decisions came after an EU legal opinion rejected the European Commission’s proposal to regulate the pipeline under the EU’s internal energy market rules. Impacts Barring any delays or unforeseen complications, Nord Stream 2 may be completed by 2020. Nord Stream 2 will increase Europe’s energy dependence on Gazprom and could make Europe more vulnerable to Russian influence. European Parliament debates on Nord Stream 2 are unlikely to have decisive implications.

Subject EU responses to Russian actions around Ukraine. Significance EU sanctions imposed in 2014 remain in place owing to continuing concerns about Russian interference in elections, the poison attack on former spy Sergey Skripal and covert Russian activities in Ukraine and elsewhere. However, the EU has resisted pressure to take immediate action after the Kerch Straits incident, in which Russian coast guards captured three Ukrainian naval vessels. Impacts The US position on sanctions currently mirrors EU restraint, but Washington would be forced to act by blatant Russian aggression. Ukraine will call for EU support while using legal action in an attempt to hamper Gazprom's alternative gas export routes. European Parliament resolutions condemning Nord Stream 2 will have little impact on German support for the project.


Significance Nonetheless, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea is facing an uncertain future. If completed, the project would double the capacity of the existing Nord Stream pipeline and increase Russia’s influence on the European energy market. Impacts The withdrawal of European companies from the project could make it more difficult for Gazprom to secure financing. Gazprom’s debt burden will increase, but it may also be able to improve its long-term strategic position. The project would call into question the future of the EU’s ‘energy union’ and the Commission’s role in regulating European energy policy. The incoming administration of US President Donald Trump will develop its own energy policies in Europe.


Significance Despite this, Biden indicated no change in the US position after a bilateral agreement with Germany effectively paved the way to completing the pipeline. Technically, Nord Stream 2 could begin partially operating in October. Impacts The recent spike in European gas prices to levels unseen since 2008 reinforces the case for Nord Stream 2's speedy completion. EU energy diversification, with a focus on renewables, poses long-term questions about the viability of both the Nord Stream pipelines. From October, Hungary will switch to Gazprom gas supplied via Serbia and Austria instead of through Ukrainian pipelines.


Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.


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