Russia's Baltic pipeline nearly ready but risks remain

Significance Despite this, Biden indicated no change in the US position after a bilateral agreement with Germany effectively paved the way to completing the pipeline. Technically, Nord Stream 2 could begin partially operating in October. Impacts The recent spike in European gas prices to levels unseen since 2008 reinforces the case for Nord Stream 2's speedy completion. EU energy diversification, with a focus on renewables, poses long-term questions about the viability of both the Nord Stream pipelines. From October, Hungary will switch to Gazprom gas supplied via Serbia and Austria instead of through Ukrainian pipelines.

Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 66-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quan Li ◽  
Min Ye

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore and test the motivation behind the evolution of China’s vast network of partnerships around the globe since the end of the Cold War. Design/methodology/approach After combing through 24 types of partnerships with 78 countries, the authors empirically tested four hypotheses using data from Correlates of War and World Bank. Findings The analysis indicates that China’s choice to build such an elaborate network is not random. On the contrary, it is largely determined by three factors: the need to counter the US pressure; the necessity of maintaining peace and stability along its borders and achieving the long-term goal of modernization. Originality/value The research is among the first attempts to comprehensively test the possible motivations behind China’s partnership building efforts and provides a stepping stone for analyzing this important aspect of China’s foreign policy.


2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 206-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason R. Baron ◽  
Anne Thurston

Purpose This paper aims to present a high-level summary of the US archivist’s digital mandate for 2019, embodied in the publication “Managing Government Records”, issued on August 24, 2012, and a summary of US policy. The authors then consider the implications of the US e-recordkeeping initiative for lower-resource countries. Design/methodology/approach After setting out key elements of the US Archivist’s digital mandate, the paper proceeds to evaluate its policy implications for lower-resource countries based on the authors’ field experience and knowledge of case studies. Findings The USA is embarking on a state of the art approach for managing public sector archives in a digital form, with deadlines approaching for all federal agencies to manage e-mail and other e-records. Although a similar need exists in lesser-resourced countries, there are enormous barriers to successful implementation of a similar approach. Research limitations/implications The archivist’s 2019 digital mandate assumes that the technology sector will embrace the needs of public sector agencies in working on applicable electronic archiving solutions. Practical implications The Archivist’s Directive has the potential to be an enormous driver of change in the records management profession with respect to future management of increasingly digital archive collections. Vast collections of public sector e-mail and other forms of e-records potentially will be preserved under the directive, raising the stakes that archivists and records managers work on solutions in the area of long-term preservation and future access. Social implications The importance of capturing the activities of public-sector institutions in all countries for the purpose of openness, transparency and access cannot be overstated. In an increasingly digital age, new methods are needed to ensure that the historical record of governmental institutions is preserved and made accessible. Originality/value The US Archivist’s mandate represents a cutting-edge approach to long-term digital archiving with potential future applicability to the management of public sector records worldwide.


2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Barthélémy Michalon

Subject area Diplomatic and consular policies; legal aspects of international relations and Asia regional scenario. Study level/applicability Undergraduate. Case overview In April 2012, high-level officials from China and the USA were about to meet in Beijing in the framework of the bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue, organized on a yearly basis. The event was always delicate, due to the ambiguous relationship existing between the two countries, which were at the same time rivals and dependent on one another. That time, the tension previous to the meeting increased significantly: a Chinese human rights activist had just sought and obtained diplomatic protection in the US Embassy in Beijing, thus creating an embarrassing situation for both States' foreign departments […] How could they possibly solve this contentious issue without affecting their already sensitive relationship? Expected learning outcomes Analytical: to be aware of the political nature of the current Chinese Government; to realize the concrete and practical implications of an Embassy's special status; to balance two contradictory objectives, in a specific situation where none of them can be fully discarded; to contrast and try to combine long-term goals (in this case, to maintain a functioning relationship between two main world powers) with short-term objectives (in this case, how to deal with a Chinese activist that required protection against his own country's security forces); to find a modus vivendi (conciliation) between values and interests; to get convinced that certain kinds of negotiations cannot be conceived through a “win or lose” approach: in this case, the only way out must be respectful of the two parties' core interests; and to take into account that image preservation (“face-saving”) must be included within any country's objectives in any situation involving diplomatic means. Conceptual: the purpose is to familiarize the students with specific concepts, such as: best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA), which is to be mentioned as part of the discussion (it is not included in the case study itself); interdependence; (purported) Group of Two; asylum and refuge; Immunity; and sending state/receiving state. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.


Subject The implications for Japan of the US presidential election. Significance US presidential election campaign rhetoric has sparked serious concerns in Japan about Washington's commitment to the East Asia region in the context of a long-term rise in geopolitical tensions. Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly questioned the value of the US-Japan alliance, while Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton has muted her previous support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, seen as the economic component of the US 'rebalance' to Asia under President Barack Obama's administration. Impacts Doubts about the US commitment to the region work to Beijing's advantage. The US government's likely failure to ratify the TPP will damage perceptions of Washington's commitment to the region. Though occasionally mooted, the idea of developing nuclear weapons is a non-starter in Japan.


Subject The US arms control agenda. Significance Despite having less than a year in office, President Barack Obama's administration is sustaining a high-profile arms control agenda in 2016. The administration wants to restore several damaged treaties with Russia, broaden Russia-China-US cooperation on various non-proliferation issues and leave Obama's successor a firm nuclear security architecture. Arms control is a consultative, long-term diplomatic process, and is susceptible to the political imperatives of more immediate regional crises. Impacts Tacit US support of Israeli nuclear opacity will undermine arms control efforts in the Middle East. Post-Obama arms control efforts are likely to focus on the security of nuclear material, rather than strategic arms reductions. Senate retirements will undermine US arms control advocacy in Congress. The United States will retain its nuclear arsenal indefinitely despite criticism from its allies.


Significance Gazprom held its first auctions, for Nord Stream gas, on September 7-10. Auctions represent a departure in Gazprom's sales strategy, and suggest that it is exploring alternatives to oil indexation and long-term contracts. Auction sales would allow Gazprom to sell more gas from the currently under-utilised Nord Stream pipeline, and could form the basis for gas sales from its proposed expansion. Both Nord Stream auctions sales and expansion would advance Gazprom's objective of bypassing Ukraine for gas transit to Europe. Impacts Auction sales would meet CEE states' preference for sourcing Russian gas through Western intermediaries. However, any loss of gas transit via Ukraine will raise concerns in some CEE states and Ukraine on transit fee and strategic grounds. By helping to meet EU TPA requirements, Nord Stream auction sales could reduce regulatory concerns about the line's expansion. EU and US sanctions against Russia do not prohibit Western company involvement in pipeline construction for gas transmission.


Subject Djibouti port management Significance Djibouti on February 22 unilaterally terminated Dubai Ports World (DP World)’s contract to manage Djibouti’s main economic asset, the Doraleh Container Terminal (DCT), the port that handles almost all of land-locked Ethiopia’s foreign trade. The port’s seizure brings a bitter, six-year legal and commercial dispute between the Emirati-owned DP World and Djibouti’s President Ismael Omar Guelleh to a climactic end, reconfiguring alliances in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Singapore-based Pacific International Lines (PIL) will now manage the port, as Djibouti eyes a long-term future aligned towards the Far East. Impacts The de facto nationalisation of DCT will not significantly disrupt Ethiopia’s economy or transit trade in the short term. Despite US unease over Chinese maritime ambitions, Western diplomats will be wary of involvement in the Djibouti-UAE dispute. Given Djibouti's strategic location, the US will not downsize its military base absent a wider change in its regional strategic priorities. PIL will aim to boost transhipments via Djibouti, potentially bolstering French and Chinese links within the Ocean Alliance consortium.


Subject Impact of old and new sanctions on Russia's oil industry Significance New US sanctions make it harder for President Donald Trump to relax or reverse sanctions on Russia's energy sector but do not radically change existing restrictions. The Russian oil industry has responded since 2014 by seeking alternative sources of capital. Gas firms have been targeted less by restrictions, although the new US bill singles out Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 project for potential punitive action. Impacts Sanctions will not affect Russia's current position as the world's top oil producer. Long-term production will be depressed if ageing fields cannot be replaced with new fields requiring high-tech development. Kazakhstan is keen to stress that the oil pipeline from its Tengiz field to the Russian Black Sea is exempt from sanctions.


Subject Impact of the US-China tariffs on the energy market. Significance Global trade is slowing, and the US-China trade tariffs are exacerbating the slowdown. US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are finding alternative markets, but competitive pressures are likely to rise as both oil and LNG markets face oversupply. The tariffs on goods imported to the United States are also raising costs for the renewable and non-renewable sectors. Impacts US LNG producers could struggle to place cargoes as European gas storage approaches capacity. The large number of US offshore wind projects underway may be held back because the US-China tariffs are increasing project costs. Weak world trade and GDP growth is capping energy demand, offsetting supply worries and curbing oil price gains.


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