Uncertain future for Russia's Nord Stream 2 in Europe

Significance Nonetheless, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea is facing an uncertain future. If completed, the project would double the capacity of the existing Nord Stream pipeline and increase Russia’s influence on the European energy market. Impacts The withdrawal of European companies from the project could make it more difficult for Gazprom to secure financing. Gazprom’s debt burden will increase, but it may also be able to improve its long-term strategic position. The project would call into question the future of the EU’s ‘energy union’ and the Commission’s role in regulating European energy policy. The incoming administration of US President Donald Trump will develop its own energy policies in Europe.

Subject US sanctions. Significance The US government views the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, running from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, as increasing European dependence on Russian fuels when the Russian government is reasserting its influence in Eastern and Central Europe. The US administration has imposed extraterritorial sanctions against corporations constructing the pipeline. This may simply be a tactic to encourage more European purchases of US natural gas, but it is also consistent with the US administration’s mercantilist attitude towards trade. Impacts Nord Stream 2 sanctions will hurt some European firms, akin to the effect of US sanctions against European firms still operating in Iran. No evidence shows that the US policy is improving firms’ sales, which may discourage firms from currying favour with the administration. The US corruption probe into Airbus may boost Boeing and Lockheed Martin in the US market and make it harder for China’s COMAC to enter.


Subject Nord Stream 2 update. Significance A bill passed by the Danish parliament on November 30 could allow lawmakers to block pipelines such as the controversial Russian-European Nord Stream 2 from using Danish territorial waters out of security or foreign policy concerns. This would may force the Nord Stream 2 project company to find an alternative route for the undersea natural gas pipeline, raising further questions about the project’s viability. Impacts US sanctions could make it harder for Gazprom to secure international financing for the project early next year. EU-US ties may suffer as supporters of the project are upset with what they see is unlawful US interference in an internal European issue. The project could pose security concerns in the Baltic Sea region where tensions between NATO and Russia are running high.


Significance With TurkStream, Russia has opened a new export route to the EU through South-eastern Europe under the Black Sea: Bulgaria, Greece and North Macedonia are receiving Russian gas through Turkey. Russian gas giant Gazprom is now less dependent on transit through Ukraine, although the larger Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic is being delayed and the Ukrainian route will continue serving Central Europe for the time being. Impacts Plans for a floating storage regasification unit at Alexandroupolis in north-eastern Greece will make headway. Access to LNG will give customers leverage over Gazprom when long-term supply contracts are renegotiated in the 2020s. As TurkStream brings not new but rerouted gas (except for new customers) it will not raise dependence on Russia.


Significance Despite this, Biden indicated no change in the US position after a bilateral agreement with Germany effectively paved the way to completing the pipeline. Technically, Nord Stream 2 could begin partially operating in October. Impacts The recent spike in European gas prices to levels unseen since 2008 reinforces the case for Nord Stream 2's speedy completion. EU energy diversification, with a focus on renewables, poses long-term questions about the viability of both the Nord Stream pipelines. From October, Hungary will switch to Gazprom gas supplied via Serbia and Austria instead of through Ukrainian pipelines.


1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 373-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Grimvall ◽  
H. Borén ◽  
S. Jonsson ◽  
S. Karlsson ◽  
R. Sävenhed

The long-term fate of chlorophenols and adsorbable organic halogens (AOX) was studied in two large recipients of bleach-plant effluents: Lake Vättern in Sweden and the Baltic Sea. The study showed that there is a long-distance transport (>100 km) of chloroguaiacols from bleach-plants to remote parts of receiving waters. However, there was no evidence of several-year-long accumulation of chloro-organics in the water-phase. A simple water-exchange model for Lake Vättern showed that the cumulated bleach-plant discharges from the past 35 years would have increased the AOX concentration in the lake by more than 100 µg Cl/l, if no AOX had been removed from the water by evaporation, sedimentation or degradation. However, the observed AOX concentration in Lake Vättern averaged only about 15 µg Cl/l, which was less than the average AOX concentration (32 µg Cl/l) in the “unpolluted” tributaries of the lake. Similar investigations in the Baltic Sea showed that non-point sources, including natural halogenation processes, accounted for a substantial fraction of the AOX in the open sea. The presence of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol in precipitation and “unpolluted” surface waters showed that non-point sources may also make a considerable contribution to the background levels of compounds normally regarded as indicators of bleach-plant effluents.


Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Soomere ◽  
A. Räämet

Abstract. This study focuses on spatial patterns in linear trends of numerically reconstructed basic wave properties (average and extreme wave heights, wave periods) in the Baltic Sea under the assumption of no ice cover. Numerical simulations of wave conditions for 1970–2007, using the WAM wave model and adjusted geostrophic winds, revealed extensive spatial variations in long-term changes in both average and extreme wave heights in the Baltic Sea but almost no changes in the basinwide wave activity and wave periods. There has been a statistically significant decrease in the annual mean significant wave height by more than 10% between the islands of Öland and Gotland and in the southward sea area, and a substantial increase to the south-west of Bornholm, near the coast of Latvia, between the Åland Archipelago and the Swedish mainland, and between the Bothnian Sea and the Bothnian Bay. Variations in extreme wave heights (defined as the threshold for 1% of the highest waves each year) show similar patterns of changes. In several areas the trends in average and extreme wave heights are different. Such a complicated pattern of changes indicates that (i) different regions of the Baltic Sea basin have experienced widespread but essentially different changes in wind properties and (ii) many seemingly controversial trends and variations established in wave properties at different sites in the recent past may reflect the natural spatial variability in the Baltic Sea wave fields.


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