Electricity price forecast based on stacked autoencoder in spot market environment

Author(s):  
Ya Zou ◽  
Mengfu Tu ◽  
Xianliang Teng ◽  
Rongzhang Cao ◽  
Wei Xie
Author(s):  
Petrică RĂDAN ◽  
◽  
Florin-Emilian CIAUȘIU ◽  
Bogdan-Ștefan ACHIM ◽  
Andrei STAN ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 06042
Author(s):  
Menghua Fan ◽  
Su Yang ◽  
Zheng Zhao

At present, the construction of China’s power spot market is advancing steadily. This paper studies the characteristics and functions of the spot market, analyses the market environment and requirements, studies the key elements and designs the market mode for the spot market under the new situation, and puts forward suggestions for some key problems in the actual operation. This paper can provide reference for promoting the top-level design and operation of China’s power spot market.


Author(s):  
Lidio Mauro Lima de Campos ◽  
Jherson Haryson Almeida Pereira ◽  
Danilo Souza Duarte ◽  
Roberto Celio Limao de Oliveira

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umut Ugurlu ◽  
Oktay Tas ◽  
Aycan Kaya ◽  
Ilkay Oksuz

Electricity price forecasting has a paramount effect on generation companies (GenCos) due to the scheduling of the electricity generation scheme according to electricity price forecasts. Inaccurate electricity price forecasts could cause important loss of profits to the suppliers. In this paper, the financial effect of inaccurate electricity price forecasts on a hydro-based GenCo is examined. Electricity price forecasts of five individual and four hybrid forecast models and the ex-post actual prices are used to schedule the hydro-based GenCo using Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). The financial effect measures of profit loss, Economic Loss Index (ELI) and Price Forecast Disadvantage Index (PFDI), as well as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the models are used for comparison of the data from 24 weeks of the year. According to the results, a hybrid model, 50% Artificial Neural Network (ANN)–50% Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), has the best performance in terms of financial effect. Furthermore, the forecast performance evaluation methods, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), are not necessarily coherent with inaccurate electricity price forecasts’ financial effect measures.


2021 ◽  
Vol 256 ◽  
pp. 01030
Author(s):  
Li Long ◽  
Tianhai Yang ◽  
Qifen Li ◽  
Yongwen Yang ◽  
Lifei Song ◽  
...  

A contract for difference is a medium and long-term financial contract, which can be used in the electricity market to lock the electricity price in advance and avoid the risk of electricity price fluctuations in the spot market. The construction of the domestic power spot market has just started. With the release of relevant policies and the gradual improvement of the market structure, it is urgent to design a corresponding trading mechanism to ensure the smooth transition of the market. The current day-ahead transactions, real-time transactions and other short-term transactions for distributed power generation, on the one hand power load forecasting, electricity price demand response and other related technologies need to be further improved, on the other hand due to the randomness and uncertainty of distributed energy, participating in the short-term spot market has large price fluctuations, which is not conducive to the stability of the electricity market, and it is also not conducive to the consumption of distributed energy. Aiming at the above problems, this paper uses the characteristics of CFDs to restrain market power to design a distributed energy trading mechanism to achieve the purpose of energy saving and emission reduction.


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