Game theoretic validation of air combat simulation models

Author(s):  
Jirka Poropudas ◽  
Kai Virtanen
2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juho Roponen ◽  
Ahti Salo

Abstract Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) builds on statistical risk analysis and game theory to analyze decision situations involving two or more intelligent opponents who make decisions under uncertainty. During the past few years, the ARA approach-which is based on the explicit modelling of the decision making processes of a rational opponent-has been applied extensively in areas such as counterterrorism and corporate competition. In the context of military combat modelling, however, ARA has not been used systematically, even if there have been attempts to predict the opponent’s decisions based on wargaming, application of game theoretic equilibria, and the use of expert judgements. Against this backdrop, we argue that combining ARA with military combat modelling holds promise for enhancing the capabilities of combat modelling tools. We identify ways of combining ARA with combat modelling and give an illustrative example of how ARA can provide insights into a problem where the defender needs to estimate the utility gained from hiding its troop movements from the attacker. Even if the ARA approach can be challenging to apply, it can be instructive in that relevant assumptions about the resources, expectations and goals that guide the adversary’s decisions must be explicated.


1989 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 1300-1304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Houck ◽  
Gary S. Thomas ◽  
Herbert H. Bell

The objective of this investigation was to identify air combat mission tasks that could be trained using existing multiship simulator technology. Forty-two mission ready F-15 pilots and 16 tactical air controllers rated their need for additional training on 41 air combat tasks. These pilots and controllers then participated in four days of air combat training using McDonnell Aircraft Company's simulation facility. This training allowed the participants to practice two-ship tactics in an unrestricted combat environment which included multiple air and ground threats, electronic combat, and real-time kill removal. Following training, the participants rated the value of their current unit training and training provided by the multiship simulation. Pilots rated the multiship simulator training superior to their current unit training for 22 of the 41 air combat tasks. Pilots also rated their need for additional training in those 22 combat tasks from “very” to “extremely” desirable. The controllers indicated that all combat tasks were better trained in the multiplayer simulation than in their current unit training program. Interviews and questionnaires also identified a number of strengths and weaknesses of the simulation that provide “lessons learned” for the development and use of future multiplayer air combat simulations.


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