A 5-year set of profile data from Warilla Beach, N.S.W., measured fortnightly, has been statistically analysed by using Fourier transform, least-squares, and empirical orthogonal function (eigenfunction or EOF) techniques to identify characteristic patterns of temporal and spatial variation in the sediment volume of the subaerial beach. Least-squares analysis enabled separation of the variation in the subaerial beach at Warilla into a 5-year trend, periodic fluctuations and aperiodic events. The periodic fluctuations are dominated by biennial and annual components. The biennial component accounts for 40% of the sediment budget of the subaerial beach, the annual component 30%, 13% is due to the long-term trend over the 5 years, and about 20% is estimated as aperiodic fluctuations mainly related to changes in the wave regime. Phase differences were identified for periodic oscillations on adjacent beach segments and a chronology of change in sediment volume deduced from the phase differences. The results show that variation in the sediment volume of the subaerial beach is determined by interaction between the biennial and seasonal exchanges although the resulting pattern of exchange may be obscured by higher-frequency beach changes. In alternate years the focus of onshore-offshore sediment exchange shifts from the centre of the beach to the exposed, northern sector. The major depositional zone associated with this exchange is located on the southern+entral sector of the beach and the major erosion zone is on the northern part of the beach. The pattern of alongshore sediment exchange was more closely investigated by EOF analysis. The method facilitated separation of onshore-offshore and alongshore modes of sediment transfer and identification of the patterns of alongshore sediment exchange. The first four EOF's for the data on the subaerial beach at Warilla contain 95.3% of the total variance. The fundamental pattern of sediment movement identified in the EOF analysis involves an onshore-offshore transfer of sediment in biennial, seasonal and 6-monthly cycles. The transfer accounts for 61.7% of the variance for the sediment store of the subaerial beach. The amplitude spectrum of the associated time series for this eigenfunction mode shows that the biennial component is dominant. This result supports the results from the least-squares analysis. It could not have been anticipated from previous studies of beach change from New South Wales or elsewhere and is the subject of ongoing investigation. Subsequent eigenfunction modes identify alongshore movements, with three patterns accounting for a further 33.8% of the remaining variance. They are associated with the prevailing system of inshore water circulation and identify major, recurrent rip and bar locations. Time series associated with the eigenfunction modes confirm the dominance of biennial, annual, and biannual sediment transfers occurring on Warilla Beach.
Relationship between the population incidence of pertussis in children in New South Wales, Australia and emergency department visits with cough: a time series analysis
