Tighter macroeconomic and financial policies helped to avert a deeper
crisis, and gross external reserves increased more rapidly in recent months, largely exceeding
the mid-2019 target. However, reserves are still below the level appropriate for commodityexporting
economies (5 months of imports) to absorb terms of trade shocks. Fiscal
consolidation has been tilted towards cuts in public investment. This, together with a lack of
significant progress in structural reforms, has weighed on growth which remains too low.
The outlook for 2019 and beyond foresees further improvement in regional reserves assuming
CEMAC countries remain committed to their program objectives and new programs with CAR
and Equatorial Guinea could start around end-2019. This outlook is subject to potentially
significant risks, including: a significant slowdown in global growth and associated decline in oil
prices; a deterioration in the security situation in some countries; and weaker implementation of
IMF-supported programs.
Ocena efektu Harbergera-Laursena-Metzlera w polskim sektorze rolno-żywnościowym
