The economics of land use reveals a selection bias in tree species distribution models

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Sauveur Ay ◽  
Joannès Guillemot ◽  
Nicolas Martin-StPaul ◽  
Luc Doyen ◽  
Paul Leadley
2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 662-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Montoya ◽  
Drew W. Purves ◽  
Itziar R. Urbieta ◽  
Miguel A. Zavala

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flurin Babst ◽  
Richard L. Peters ◽  
Rafel O. Wüest ◽  
Margaret E.K. Evans ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  

<p>Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.</p><p>Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or “niche”) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.</p><p>Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species’ bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.</p><p>The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.</p>


<em>Abstract</em>.—Increasingly, fisheries managers must make important decisions in complex environments where rapidly changing landscape and climate conditions interact with historical impacts to influence resource sustainability. Successful fisheries management in this setting will require that we adapt traditional management approaches to incorporate information on these complex interacting factors—a process referred to as resilient fisheries management. Large-scale species distribution data and predictive models have the potential to enhance the management of freshwater fishes through improved understanding of how past, present, and future natural and anthropogenic factors combine to determine species vulnerability and resiliency. Here we describe a resilient fisheries management framework that provides guidance on how and when these models can be incorporated into traditional approaches to meet specific goals and objectives for resource sustainability. In addition to elucidating complex drivers of distributional patterns and change, species distribution models can inform the prioritization, application, and implementation of management activities such as restoration (e.g., instream habitat and riparian), protection (e.g., areas where additional land use would result in a change in species distribution), and regulations (e.g., harvest restriction) in a way that informs resiliency to land use and climate change. Although considerable progress has been made with respect to applying species distribution models to the management of Brook Trout <em>Salvelinus fontinalis </em>and other aquatic species, there are several areas where a more unified research and management effort could increase the ability of distribution models to inform resilient management. Future efforts should aim to improve (1) data availability, consistency (sampling methodology), and quality (accounting for detection); (2) partnerships among researchers, agencies, and managers; and (3) model accessibility and understanding of limitations and potential benefits to managers (e.g., incorporation into publicly available decision support systems). The information and recommendations provided herein can be used to promote and advance the use of models in resilient fisheries management in the face of continued large-scale land use and climate change.


2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Symone Maria de Melo Figueiredo ◽  
Eduardo Martins Venticinque ◽  
Evandro Orfanó Figueiredo

ABSTRACT Knowledge of the geographical distribution of timber tree species in the Amazon is still scarce. This is especially true at the local level, thereby limiting natural resource management actions. Forest inventories are key sources of information on the occurrence of such species. However, areas with approved forest management plans are mostly located near access roads and the main industrial centers. The present study aimed to assess the spatial scale effects of forest inventories used as sources of occurrence data in the interpolation of potential species distribution models. The occurrence data of a group of six forest tree species were divided into four geographical areas during the modeling process. Several sampling schemes were then tested applying the maximum entropy algorithm, using the following predictor variables: elevation, slope, exposure, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). The results revealed that using occurrence data from only one geographical area with unique environmental characteristics increased both model overfitting to input data and omission error rates. The use of a diagonal systematic sampling scheme and lower threshold values led to improved model performance. Forest inventories may be used to predict areas with a high probability of species occurrence, provided they are located in forest management plan regions representative of the environmental range of the model projection area.


2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 635-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. H. Mellert ◽  
V. Fensterer ◽  
H. Küchenhoff ◽  
B. Reger ◽  
C. Kölling ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 1867-1883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrián Regos ◽  
Louis Imbeau ◽  
Mélanie Desrochers ◽  
Alain Leduc ◽  
Michel Robert ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document