Batch-produced, GIS-informed range maps for birds based on provenanced, crowd-sourced data inform conservation assessments

Accurate maps of species ranges are essential to inform conservation, but time-consuming to produce and update. Given the pace of change of knowledge about species distributions and shifts in ranges under climate change and land use, a need exists for timely mapping approaches that enable batch processing employing widely available data. We develop a systematic approach of batch-processing range maps and derived Area of Habitat maps for terrestrial bird species with published ranges below 125,000 km2 in Central and South America. (Area of Habitat is the habitat available to a species within its range.) We combine existing range maps with the rapidly expanding crowd-sourced eBird data of presences and absences from frequently surveyed locations, plus readily accessible, high resolution satellite data on forest cover and elevation to map the Area of Habitat available to each species. Users can interrogate the maps produced to see details of the observations that contributed to the ranges. Previous estimates of Areas of Habitat were constrained within the published ranges and thus were, by definition, smaller—typically about 30%. This reflects how little habitat within suitable elevation ranges exists within the published ranges. Our results show that on average, Areas of Habitat are 12% larger than published ranges, reflecting the often-considerable extent that eBird records expand the known distributions of species. Interestingly, there are substantial differences between threatened and non-threatened species. Some 40% of Critically Endangered, 43% of Endangered, and 55% of Vulnerable species have Areas of Habitat larger than their published ranges, compared with 31% for Near Threatened and Least Concern species. The important finding for conservation is that threatened species are generally more widespread than previously estimated.

Take only pictures, leave only… Cameras influence marmot vigilance but not perceptions of risk

Ecotourism promotes conservation efforts while also allowing for low impact observation of wildlife. Many ecotourists photograph wildlife and photography plays an important role in focusing the public’s attention on nature. Although photography is commonly believed to be a low impact activity, how the visual stimulus of a camera influences wildlife remains unknown. Since animals are known to fear eyes pointed towards them, we predicted that a camera with a large zoom lens would increase animal’s vigilance levels. Using yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) as a mammalian model, and adopting a behavioural approach to identify how marmots responded to cameras, we experimentally quantified vigilance and flight initiation distance towards humans when marmots were approached with and without a camera. While a camera was pointed at an individual, marmots allocated less time to searching predators and increased time to looking at the observer than they did without a camera. However, whether a camera was pointed at a marmot or not had no effect on the distance the marmot flushed. Our results indicated that cameras distracted marmots but did not influence subsequent risk assessment (i.e., flight initiation distance); marmots may be curious about cameras but were not threatened by them. Capturing animals’ attentions reduces searching for predators and may increase the vulnerability to predation. Therefore, regulating photography in locations where predation risk is high or vulnerable species ranges’ overlap with humans may be required to reduce photography’s impact on wildlife.

Targeting current species ranges and carbon stocks fails to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate: opportunities to support climate adaptation under 30x30

Protecting areas for climate adaptation will be essential to ensuring greater opportunity for species conservation well into the future. However, many proposals for protected areas expansion focus on our understanding of current spatial patterns, which may be ineffective surrogates for future needs. A science-driven call to address the biodiversity and climate crises by conserving at least 30% of lands and waters by 2030, 30x30, presents new opportunities to inform the siting of new protections globally and in the U.S. Here we identify climate refugia and corridors based on a weighted combination of currently available models; compare them to current biodiversity hotspots and carbon-rich areas to understand how 30x30 protections siting may be biased by data omission; and compare identified refugia and corridors to the Protected Areas Database to assess current levels of protection. Available data indicate that 20.5% and 27.5% of identified climate adaptation areas (refugia and/or corridor) coincides with current imperiled species hotspots and carbon-rich areas, respectively. With only 12.5% of climate refugia and corridors protected, a continued focus on current spatial patterns in species and carbon richness will not inherently conserve places critical for climate adaptation. However, there is ample opportunity for establishing future-minded protections: 52% of the contiguous U.S. falls into the top quartile of values for at least one class of climate refugia. Nearly 27% is already part of the protected areas network, but managed for multiple uses that may limit their ability to contribute to the goals of 30x30. Additionally, nearly two-thirds of nationally identified refugia coincide with ecoregion-specific refugia suggesting representation of nearly all ecoregions in national efforts focused on conserving climate refugia. Based on these results, we recommend that land planners and managers make more explicit policy priorities and strategic decisions for future-minded protections and climate adaptation.

Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming

Global aridification is projected to intensify. Yet, our knowledge of its potential impacts on species ranges remains limited. Here, we investigate global aridity velocity and its overlap with three sectors (natural protected areas, agricultural areas, and urban areas) and terrestrial biodiversity in historical (1979 through 2016) and future periods (2050 through 2099), with and without considering vegetation physiological response to rising CO2. Both agricultural and urban areas showed a mean drying velocity in history, although the concurrent global aridity velocity was on average +0.05/+0.20 km/yr−1 (no CO2 effects/with CO2 effects; “+” denoting wetting). Moreover, in drylands, the shifts of vegetation greenness isolines were found to be significantly coupled with the tracks of aridity velocity. In the future, the aridity velocity in natural protected areas is projected to change from wetting to drying across RCP (representative concentration pathway) 2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. When accounting for spatial distribution of terrestrial taxa (including plants, mammals, birds, and amphibians), the global aridity velocity would be -0.15/-0.02 km/yr−1 (“-” denoting drying; historical), -0.12/-0.15 km/yr−1 (RCP2.6), -0.36/-0.10 km/yr−1 (RCP6.0), and -0.75/-0.29 km/yr−1 (RCP8.5), with amphibians particularly negatively impacted. Under all scenarios, aridity velocity shows much higher multidirectionality than temperature velocity, which is mainly poleward. These results suggest that aridification risks may significantly influence the distribution of terrestrial species besides warming impacts and further impact the effectiveness of current protected areas in future, especially under RCP8.5, which best matches historical CO2 emissions [C. R. Schwalm et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 19656–19657 (2020)].

Metagenomic identification of a new sarbecovirus from horseshoe bats in Europe

The source of the COVID-19 pandemic is unknown, but the natural host of the progenitor sarbecovirus is thought to be Asian horseshoe (rhinolophid) bats. We identified and sequenced a novel sarbecovirus (RhGB01) from a British horseshoe bat, at the western extreme of the rhinolophid range. Our results extend both the geographic and species ranges of sarbecoviruses and suggest their presence throughout the horseshoe bat distribution. Within the spike protein receptor binding domain, but excluding the receptor binding motif, RhGB01 has a 77% (SARS-CoV-2) and 81% (SARS-CoV) amino acid homology. While apparently lacking hACE2 binding ability, and hence unlikely to be zoonotic without mutation, RhGB01 presents opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 and other sarbecovirus homologous recombination. Our findings highlight that the natural distribution of sarbecoviruses and opportunities for recombination through intermediate host co-infection are underestimated. Preventing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to bats is critical with the current global mass vaccination campaign against this virus.

A Test of Species Distribution Model Transferability Across Environmental and Geographic Space for 108 Western North American Tree Species

Predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used in support of environmental decision-making to explore potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, because future climates are likely to differ from current climates, there has been ongoing interest in understanding the ability of SDMs to predict species responses under novel conditions (i.e., model transferability). Here, we explore the spatial and environmental limits to extrapolation in SDMs using forest inventory data from 11 model algorithms for 108 tree species across the western United States. Algorithms performed well in predicting occurrence for plots that occurred in the same geographic region in which they were fitted. However, a substantial portion of models performed worse than random when predicting for geographic regions in which algorithms were not fitted. Our results suggest that for transfers in geographic space, no specific algorithm was better than another as there were no significant differences in predictive performance across algorithms. There were significant differences in predictive performance for algorithms transferred in environmental space with GAM performing best. However, the predictive performance of GAM declined steeply with increasing extrapolation in environmental space relative to other algorithms. The results of this study suggest that SDMs may be limited in their ability to predict species ranges beyond the environmental data used for model fitting. When predicting climate-driven range shifts, extrapolation may also not reflect important biotic and abiotic drivers of species ranges, and thus further misrepresent the realized shift in range. Future studies investigating transferability of process based SDMs or relationships between geodiversity and biodiversity may hold promise.

Zoonoses as factor of evolution, population dynamics, and speciation

The role of zoonoses in changes of animal populations and communities is considered. The analysis was carried out using examples of population dynamics of small mammals distributed in the Crimean Peninsula, under the influence of the main zoonoses common for this territory, in particular tularaemia, leptospirosis, Marseille fever, viral tick-borne encephalitis, Ixodes tick-borne borreliosis, Crimea-Congo fever, KU fever, HFRS, and many others. Such data were analysed according to databases on the state of small-mammal populations and zoonoses common in these populations, obtained by original studies over the past 40 years. The role of zoonoses as factors of evolutionary changes in populations of small mammals is considered, in particular as a factor of mortality leading to significant reductions in population numbers and fragmentation of species ranges, as well as factors determining co-evolution of pathogens, vectors (arthropods), and small-mammals as hosts. Both groups of factors lead to the formation of population diversity due to changes in character variability and the formation of new characters associated with adaptations to zoonoses.

Ecological and geographical criteria of species in Quaternary mammals on the example of ground squirrels of the subgenus Colobotis (Sciuridae, Rodentia)

Pleistocene small mammals demonstrate two main types of response to climatic changes: elastic (significant changes of species ranges) and resistant (stable ranges). Extinct ground squirrels of the subgenus Соlobotis belonged to climate-resistant species and formed morphologically distinct subspecies. The dispersal of the Middle Pleistocene Spermophilus (Сolobotis) superciliosus both on the left and right bank of the Dnipro corresponds to the absence of any isolating effect of the river under conditions of tectonic stability. In the Late Pleistocene, under the dominance of tectonic uplift and increasing isolating role of rivers, several subspecies were formed: S. superciliosus palaeodesnensis and S. superciliosus fulvoides on the left bank and another form on the right bank that was morphologically similar to S. major. The major-like form disappeared in the Holocene being replaced by S. s. fulvoides, which came from the Left-Bank Dnipro area.