Using surrogate data in population viability analysis: the case of the critically endangered cranberry fritillary butterfly

SummaryAfrican White-backed Vultures were recently uplisted to ‘Critically Endangered’ by IUCN due to declines across their range. Poisoning is widely accepted as the major reason for these declines. Botswana supports a high number of this species (breeding pairs > c.1,200), but as yet no published information exists on their breeding success in the country. However, mass poisonings within Botswana and neighbouring countries have killed thousands of White-backed Vultures in recent years. We therefore expected that nesting numbers may have declined in this region if these poisoning events killed local breeding birds. We used information from aerial surveys conducted between 2006 and 2017 in Khwai and Linyanti, two important breeding areas for this species in north-central Botswana, to determine if there was any change in nesting numbers and breeding success of White-backed Vultures. Results showed an overall 53.5% decline in nesting numbers, with a greater decline in Linyanti than in Khwai. In both areas, breeding success was significantly lower in 2017 than it was 10 ten years earlier. We recommend that similar repeat surveys are continued to provide greater confidence in the trends of both nesting numbers and breeding performance. Population viability analysis suggested that if the productivity levels detected in 2017 were a true indication of current productivity levels for this population, and if recent high poisoning rates continue, this population could be extirpated from the area in the next 13 years.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Incorporating ecological drivers and uncertainty into a demographic population viability analysis for the island fox.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.1158627.618836 ◽

2009 ◽

Author(s):

Nigel Yoccoz

Keyword(s):

Population Viability Analysis ◽

Population Viability ◽

Viability Analysis ◽

Island Fox

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Can we reestablish a self-sustaining population? A case study on reintroduced Crested Ibis with population viability analysis

Avian Research ◽

10.1186/s40657-021-00250-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yashuai Zhang ◽

Fang Wang ◽

Zhenxia Cui ◽

Min Li ◽

Xia Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sex Ratio ◽

Population Size ◽

Carrying Capacity ◽

Wild Population ◽

Population Viability Analysis ◽

Population Viability ◽

Viability Analysis ◽

Crested Ibis ◽

Reintroduced Population

Abstract Background One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is clarifying which and how external and intrinsic factors influence wildlife demography and long-term viability. The wild population of the Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon) has recovered to approximately 4400, and several reintroduction programs have been carried out in China, Japan and Korea. Population viability analysis on this endangered species has been limited to the wild population, showing that the long-term population growth is restricted by the carrying capacity and inbreeding. However, gaps in knowledge of the viability of the reintroduced population and its drivers in the release environment impede the identification of the most effective population-level priorities for aiding in species recovery. Methods The field monitoring data were collected from a reintroduced Crested Ibis population in Ningshan, China from 2007 to 2018. An individual-based VORTEX model (Version 10.3.5.0) was used to predict the future viability of the reintroduced population by incorporating adaptive patterns of ibis movement in relation to catastrophe frequency, mortality and sex ratio. Results The reintroduced population in Ningshan County is unlikely to go extinct in the next 50 years. The population size was estimated to be 367, and the population genetic diversity was estimated to be 0.97. Sensitivity analysis showed that population size and extinction probability were dependent on the carrying capacity and sex ratio. The carrying capacity is the main factor accounting for the population size and genetic diversity, while the sex ratio is the primary factor responsible for the population growth trend. Conclusions A viable population of the Crested Ibis can be established according to population viability analysis. Based on our results, conservation management should prioritize a balanced sex ratio, high-quality habitat and low mortality.

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