Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear-Risk Analysis

Abstract The paper presents application of the Event Tree Analysis method for analyzing risk in complex situations. A model associated with the occurrence of fire on PZL Bryza was developed using the aircraft flight manual. The probabilities of events caused by the initiating event and the losses caused by each of the highlighted final undesirable events were determined. Statistical data for flight safety was used to calculate probability of the initiating event. The risk was determined as the probability that losses of at least given category will occur during one flight. As a result of the conducted analysis it was found that the probability of in-flight fire is very small. However, in such a case, the probability of death of one or more passengers is relatively high.

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Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

An International Journal of Optimization and Control Theories & Applications (IJOCTA) ◽

10.11121/ijocta.01.2019.00655 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 113-124

Author(s):

Sukran Seker

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Pharmaceutical Industry ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Hazard Identification ◽

Control Measures ◽

Event Tree ◽

Event Tree Analysis ◽

Tree Analysis ◽

Work Units ◽

Bow Tie

Risk analysis is a systematic and widespread methodology to analyze and evaluate risks which are exposed in many working areas. One of the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methods for risk assessment is Bow-Tie analysis which combines features of fault-tree analysis and event-tree analysis to identify the top event; its causes and consequences (outcomes); and possible preventive and protective control measures or barriers. This study proposes an occupational risk assessment approach, which is known as Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis, for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. The aim is to evaluate critical risks and risky pharmaceutical work units and take safety precautions against accidents which caused by risky conditions. Thus, this methodology combines the concept of uncertainty which comes from different (Decision Maker) DM’s evaluations and the whole performance of the Bow-Tie analysis for hazard identification and risk assessment. To apply and validate the proposed method, a case study is performed for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. Based on the computed risk score, which is calculated by multiplying probability ranking and impact ranking of criterion, the risks are prioritized and some measures are suggested for management to prevent accidents occur in the industry.

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Analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems to develop of methodology for teaching students using the method event tree (event tree analysis)

Yearbook Telecommunications ◽

10.33919/ytelecomm.19.6.7 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. 63-73

Author(s):

Tsvetelina Simeonova

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Event Tree ◽

Event Tree Analysis ◽

Tree Analysis ◽

Sample Sequence ◽

Student Training ◽

Technical Systems ◽

Risk Analysis And Management ◽

Tree Method

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for risk analysis, assessment and management using the event tree method. A sample sequence of risk analysis actions is shown with the use the event tree method in determining the probability of realizing a dangerous event including an exemplary event tree pattern according the example under consideration and with the possibility of calculations and for determining the risk at the accepted value of the damage. A methodology for risk analysis is proposed based on the event tree applicable to student training on risk analysis and management.

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Human Factor in the Life Cycle and Safety of Machines and Pipelines

Computer Technology and Applications ◽

10.1115/pvp2003-1919 ◽

2003 ◽

Author(s):

Sviatoslav A. Timashev

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Human Error ◽

Human Factor ◽

Fault Tree Analysis ◽

Qualitative Assessment ◽

Event Tree ◽

Event Tree Analysis ◽

Human Reliability Analysis ◽

Tree Analysis ◽

Main Components

The paper is an overview (using references listed below) and describes the main components, means and methods of a holistic and quantitative human reliability analysis (QHRA) using quantitative values of human error when performing Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). It also deals with qualitative assessment of the influence of the human factor (HF) reliability on safety and risk analysis of potentially dangerous man-machine-structures-environment systems (PDMMSES). Qualitative risk analysis of such man-machine-structures-environment (MMSE) systems is based on using the event-decision technique in combination with a generalized socio-psychological model of the decision making person (DMP). Three types of DMP’s are considered: members of maintenance/repair crews, diagnosticians and different rank DMP’s that operate or own the PDMMSES.

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Prevention of the accidents based on risk analysis during well logging

10.33920/pro-4-2103-07 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 51-55

Author(s):

E.V. Dmitrenko ◽

Yu.I. Zakharchenko ◽

S.P. Shuray

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Mechanical Damage ◽

Well Logging ◽

Important Task ◽

Event Tree ◽

Event Tree Analysis ◽

Tree Analysis ◽

Emergency Situations

Conduction of well logging is associated with the possibility of occurrence of various emergency situations. The most probable are the sticking of well-logging tools and logging cable rupture. Such events can trigger the development of emergencies. Therefore, ensuring safety during well logging is an actual and practically important task. The authors analyzed the risk of well logging activities using the method of event tree analysis. It has been found that the main causes of sticking are rapid descent of the logging probe and casing string displacement. The rapid descent of logging probes is associated with incorrect actions of the operator and damage to the well logging winch. The logging probe breakage (rupture) is associated with mechanical damage to the cable and poor connection of the probe to the cable. The authors propose a set of specific recommendations to reduce the risk of accidents and to improve the coherence of the work carried by drilling personnel and the well logging laboratory, to timely detect defects in the logging cable and to rapidly remove well-logging tools in the event of an accident.

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