scholarly journals Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-124
Author(s):  
Sukran Seker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Pharmaceutical Industry ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Work Units ◽  
Bow Tie

Risk analysis is a systematic and widespread methodology to analyze and evaluate risks which are exposed in many working areas. One of the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methods for risk assessment is Bow-Tie analysis which combines features of fault-tree analysis and event-tree analysis to identify the top event; its causes and consequences (outcomes); and possible preventive and protective control measures or barriers. This study proposes an occupational risk assessment approach, which is known as Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis, for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. The aim is to evaluate critical risks and risky pharmaceutical work units and take safety precautions against accidents which caused by risky conditions. Thus, this methodology combines the concept of uncertainty which comes from different (Decision Maker) DM’s evaluations and the whole performance of the Bow-Tie analysis for hazard identification and risk assessment.  To apply and validate the proposed method, a case study is performed for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. Based on the computed risk score, which is calculated by multiplying probability ranking and impact ranking of criterion, the risks are prioritized and some measures are suggested for management to prevent accidents occur in the industry.

Risk mitigation in unstabilized approach with fuzzy Bayesian bow-tie analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (10) ◽  
pp. 1513-1521
Author(s):  
Caner Acarbay ◽  
Emre Kiyak
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bow Tie

Purpose Stable approach concept has great importance for the safe operation of an airline during the approach and landing phases. The purpose of this study is to analyse the unstabilized approaches with bow-tie method and determine the threats that may cause risk in an unstable approach. Design/methodology/approach In this study, risk assessment of the unstabilized approaches is carried out by using fuzzy bow-tie method and Bayesian networks. Bow-tie method is the combination of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Bayesian network is used in the analysis to see interrelationship of basic and intermediate events as well as to update posterior probabilities. Finally, analysis results are verified by the safety performance indicator values. Findings In this study, the probabilistic values of the numerical model presented by the risk assessment system for risks were calculated using the fuzzy bow-tie method. Thus, the risk assessment system has been transformed into a structure that can be expressed in a probabilistic manner, and the relationship of the risks within the system has been examined and the effect of a possible change on the risk value has been found to be prevalent. Originality/value The bow-tie model is widely applied to assess the risks in aviation. Obtaining prior probabilities is not always possible in the risk assessment process. In this paper, innovative fuzzy bow-tie method is used to assess the risks to overcome the lack of prior probability problem in aviation operations.

scholarly journals Analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems to develop of methodology for teaching students using the method event tree (event tree analysis)

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 63-73
Author(s):  
Tsvetelina Simeonova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Sample Sequence ◽  
Student Training ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Risk Analysis And Management ◽  
Tree Method

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for risk analysis, assessment and management using the event tree method. A sample sequence of risk analysis actions is shown with the use the event tree method in determining the probability of realizing a dangerous event including an exemplary event tree pattern according the example under consideration and with the possibility of calculations and for determining the risk at the accepted value of the damage. A methodology for risk analysis is proposed based on the event tree applicable to student training on risk analysis and management.  

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Fatal Accidents in the Metallurgical Industry in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 3790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwei Xu ◽  
Kaili Xu
Keyword(s):  
Metallurgical Industry ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Fatal Accidents ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Bow Tie

The metallurgical industry is a significant component of the national economy. The main purpose of this study was to establish a composite risk analysis method for fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. We collected 152 fatal accidents in the Chinese metallurgical industry from 2001 to 2018, including 141 major accidents, 10 severe accidents, and 1 extraordinarily severe accident, together resulting in 731 deaths. Different from traffic or chemical industry accidents, most of the accidents in the metallurgical industry are poisoning and asphyxiation accidents, which account for 40% of the total number of fatal accidents. As the original statistical data of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry have irregular fluctuations, the traditional prediction methods, such as linear or quadratic regression models, cannot be used to predict their future characteristics. To overcome this issue, the grey interval predicting method and the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory are introduced to predict the future characteristics of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. Different from a fault tree analysis or event tree analysis, the bow tie model integrates the basic causes, possible consequences, and corresponding safety measures of an accident in a transparent diagram. In this study, the bow tie model was used to identify the causes and consequences of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry; then, corresponding safety measures were adopted to reduce the risk.

scholarly journals Methodology for tunnel risk assessment using fault and event tree analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zlatko Zafirovski ◽  
Vasko Gacevski ◽  
Zoran Krakutovski ◽  
Slobodan Ognjenovic ◽  
Ivona Nedevska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Complex Solutions

The intense demand and construction of tunnels is accompanied by uncertainties. The reason for appearance of uncertainties are the complex solutions and conditions for these structures. Location and dimensions are becoming more challenging, and the construction is predicted in complexed geological conditions, leading to application of new approaches, methodologies and technologies by the engineers. Most of the uncertainties and unwanted events in tunnelling occur in the construction phase, which generally leads to economic consequences and time losses. For easier handling of the uncertainties, they should be anticipated and studied within a separate part of each project. One of the newer approaches to dealing with uncertainties is hazard and risk assessment and defining ways to deal with them i.e. management. Hazards and risks can be analysed qualitatively and quantitatively. The quantitative analysis, examines the causes and consequences in more detail way and gives explanation of the dependencies. With the quantitative approach, a more valuable information for decision-making can be provided. There are various models and methods used for the quantification of hazards and risks. This paper presents a methodology in which the fault tree analysis and event tree analysis are used in combination to obtain quantitative results. The fault tree analysis is used for assessment of various hazards and the different ways and reasons that cause them. The event tree analysis is a method for assessing the possible scenarios, which follow after a certain hazard i.e. the consequences that may occur in the project. These trees represent graphic models combined with a mathematical (probabilistic) model, which give the probability of occurrence of the risks.

scholarly journals Ανάπτυξη και εφαρμογή μεθοδολογίας εκτίμησης διακινδύνευσης σε ναυπηγεία

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Νικόλαος Φραγκιαδάκης
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Bow Tie

Στόχος αυτής της διατριβής είναι η δημιουργία μοντέλου που θα οδηγεί σε μια Ποσοτική Εκτίμηση Επαγγελματικής Διακινδύνευσης (Quantitative Risk Assessment, QRA) εργαζομένων στην ναυπηγική και ναυπηγοεπισκευαστική βιομηχανία με γνώμονα το εργατικό ατύχημα, επιχειρώντας να συμβάλλει στην αντιμετώπιση ενός προβλήματος που έχει σημαντικές κοινωνικές αλλά και οικονομικές διαστάσεις. Ακολουθήθηκαν δύο ανεξάρτητοι οδοί που συμπληρώνουν η μία την άλλη.Η πρώτη οδός οδήγησε στην ανάπτυξη ενός Αναλυτικού Μοντέλου, ικανό να περιγράφει τους μηχανισμούς σύνδεσης μεταξύ αιτίου- αιτιατού - συνεπειών εργατικών ατυχημάτων σε ναυπηγικές εργασίες και να οδηγεί υπό προϋποθέσεις σε μια ολοκληρωμένη QRA. Το μοντέλο στηρίχθηκε στον εντοπισμό και στην αξιολόγηση των πηγών κινδύνου, καθώς και άλλων επιβαρυντικών παραγόντων μέσα στο εργασιακό περιβάλλον ενός ναυπηγείου. Τεχνικές χρήσης επαγωγικών μοντέλων όπως τα δέντρα γεγονότων (Event Tree Analysis, ETA) και τα δέντρα σφαλμάτων (Fault Tree Analysis, FTA) χρησιμοποιήθηκαν. Τα επαγωγικά μοντέλα συνδέθηκαν τελικά σε μια ολοκληρωμένη δομή “BOW TIE”, στην οποία απεικονίζεται σαφώς η σχέση των γενεσιουργών αιτιών και των επιβαρυντικών παραγόντων που δύναται να οδηγήσουν στη δημιουργία ενός συμβάντος, καθώς και η πορεία από το συμβάν στις πιθανές συνέπειες μέσω των αμβλυντικών παραγόντων που συνθέτουν τα ανεξάρτητα επίπεδα προστασίας (Independent Layers of Protection, ILPs). Έτσι παρίστανται οι παράγοντες που συγκροτούν τη διακινδύνευση, δηλαδή η πιθανότητα ενός συμβάντος αφενός και οι πιθανές συνέπειες αφετέρου. Για την καλύτερη κατανόηση και τεκμηρίωση του μοντέλου διενεργήθηκαν τεχνικές ανάλυσης και αναγνώρισης κινδύνου για συγκεκριμένες χαρακτηριστικές περιπτώσεις (HAZID), κατασκευάστηκαν διαγράμματα ροής για αυτές τις περιπτώσεις και αριθμητικό παράδειγμα υπολογισμού της διακινδύνευσης για μια εκ των περιπτώσεων.Η δεύτερη οδός οδήγησε στην δόμηση ενός έμπειρου συστήματος, στηριζόμενου σε κανόνες ασαφούς λογικής και ασαφούς συμπερασμού, που χρησιμοποιεί την παρεχόμενη πληροφορία από δεδομένα εργατικών ατυχημάτων στη ναυπηγική βιομηχανία, τα οποία έχουν συγκεντρωθεί από ναυπηγοεπισκευαστικές μονάδες, μέσω της χρήσης στατιστικής ανάλυσης και με τη χρήση υπολογιστικών τεχνικών soft computing. Επιλέχθηκε η δημιουργία ενός «Ασαφούς Συστήματος Συμπερασμού» (Fuzzy Inference System, FIS) που στηρίζεται στα προσαρμοζόμενα νευρωνικά δίκτυα (Adaptive Neural Networks, AN). Τα καταγεγραμμένα δεδομένα στοιχεία υπέστησαν στατιστική επεξεργασία και καθορίστηκαν οι παράμετροι και τα δεδομένα για την τροφοδότηση, την εκπαίδευση και τον έλεγχο των αποτελεσμάτων του Προσαρμοζόμενου Νευρωνικού Ασαφούς Συστήματος Συμπερασμού (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System ANFIS).Το μοντέλο “BOW TIE” αποδείχθηκε ικανό να οδηγήσει σε ποιοτικά συμπεράσματα όπως ο εντοπισμός των πηγών κινδύνου, των επιβαρυντικών αλλά και των αμβλυντικών παραγόντων αλλά και να τεκμηριώσει ποσοτικά κάθε μέτρο βελτίωσης της ασφάλειας με στόχο τη μείωση της διακινδύνευσης.Το μοντέλο ANFIS αποδεδείχθηκε μια εφικτή μέθοδος προσομοίωσης της πολύπλοκης σχέσης μεταξύ των παραμέτρων που εμπλέκονται σε ένα εργατικό ατύχημα στη ναυπηγική βιομηχανία, εκμεταλλευόμενο ήδη υπάρχοντα και κατάλληλα στατιστικά επεξεργασμένα ιστορικά στοιχεία εργατικών ατυχημάτων, αποτελώντας ένα εργαλείο ικανό να κάνει προβλέψεις και να οδηγεί σε ασφαλή συμπεράσματα, σε μικρό υπολογιστικό χρόνο.

DAM RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE EVENT TREE ANALYSIS AND BAYESIAN NETWORKS

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
RAFAE ANTONIO BRISEÑO-RAMIRO ◽  
VÍCTOR HUGO ALCOCER-YAMANAKA ◽  
ADRIÁN PEDROZO-ACUÑA ◽  
JOSÉ AGUSTIN BREÑA-NARANJO ◽  
RAMÓN DOMÍNGUEZ-MORA
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Dam Risk

scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Assessment of Biogas Plant – Determination of Assumptions and Estimation of Selected Top Event

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Trávníček ◽  
Luboš Kotek ◽  
Tomáš Koutný ◽  
Tomáš Vítěz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Chemical Industry ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Hazardous Chemical ◽  
Biogas Plants

Biogas plants are a specific facility from the QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) methodologies' point of view, especially in the case of the determination of the event frequency of accident scenarios for biogas leakage from a gas holder and subsequent initiation. QRA methodologies determine event frequencies for different types of accident events related to vessels made of steel. Gas holders installed at biogas plants are predominantly made of other materials and are often integrated with the fermenter. It is therefore a specific type of gas holder, differing from that which is commonly used in the chemical industry. In addition, long-term experience is not available for the operation of biogas plants, unlike in the chemical industry. The event frequencies listed in the QRA methodologies are not relevant for the risk assessment of biogas plants. This work is focused on setting the prerequisites for QRA of biogas storage, including for example: information on hazardous chemical substances occurring at biogas plants, their classification, and information on the construction of integrated gas holders. For the purpose of the work, a scenario was applied where the greatest damage (to life or property) is expected. This scenario is the leakage of the total volume of hazardous gas substance from the gas holder and subsequent initiation. Based on this information, a "tree" was processed for "Fault Tree Analysis" (FTA), and frequencies were estimated for each event. Thereafter, an "Event Tree Analysis" was carried out. This work follows up on a discussion by experts on the determination of scenario frequencies for biogas plants that was conducted in the past.

scholarly journals IT RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Oskars Podziņš ◽  
Andrejs Romānovs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
The Other ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Other Hand

There are numerous methods for risk identification and risk assessment phases. Which for risk identification includes historical and systematic approach and inductive or theoretical analysis. One of the main reasons why risk identification is very helpful is that it provides justification in many cases for any large IT investment and other large undertakings. Without it organization probably wouldn’t be able to come to conclusion. Also in this phase business recognize the threats, vulnerabilities, and assets associated with its IT systems. Together with risk assessment phase risk management specialist is responsible for determining asset value, what's the value of the asset business is protecting, and risk acceptance level. Risk assessment on the other hand examines impact or consequence, as well as examines and evaluates the likelihood or probability of that adverse event happening. Risk assessment includes methods like Bayesian analysis, Bow Tie Analysis, brainstorming or structured interviews, business impact analysis, cause and consequence, cause-and-effect analysis, Delphi method, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, hazard analysis, hazard and operational studies, and finally structured what if technique or SWIFT process. Risk assessment has two distinctive assessment types- quantitative and qualitative assessment. Quantitative assessment tries to put a monetary value on all risks. Qualitative assessment on the other hand rather look at it from a range of values like low, medium, high. The results of these phases are going to be documented in the risk assessment report and reported to senior management.

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