On the Bayesian Estimation of a Closed Population Size in the Presence of Heterogeneity and Model Uncertainty

Biometrics ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 816-824 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. King ◽  
S. P. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Closed Population

scholarly journals Estimation of a closed population size of tadpoles in temporary pond

2017 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 328-336
Author(s):  
M. S. C. S. Lima ◽  
J. Pederassi ◽  
C. A. S. Souza
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Bayes Theorem ◽  
Venn Diagram ◽  
Temporary Pond ◽  
Larval Phase ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Lotic Environment ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Smirnov Test

Abstract The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue. When comparing the results of Lincoln-Petersen estimator corresponding to the Venn diagram and Bayes theorem, we detected percentage differences per sampling, i.e., the proportion of sampled anuran genera is kept among the three methods, although the values are numerically different. By submitting these results to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test we have found no significant differences. Therefore, no matter the estimator, the measured value is adherent and estimates the total population. Together with the marking methodology, which did not change the behavior of tadpoles, the present study helps to fill the need of more studies on larval phase of amphibians in Brazil, especially in semi-arid northeast.

The supersession of one rumour by another

1977 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. K. Osei ◽  
J. W. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Finite Population ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Asymptotic Case ◽  
Distribution Of The Maximum ◽  
Maximum Value

A model is considered for a situation in which one rumour suppresses another in a closed population. The distribution of the maximum value attained by the proportion spreading the weaker rumour is obtained in the asymptotic case, and this is compared with some actual distributions for finite population size. Closer approximations to the latter distributions are obtained.

Roost availability and population size of Thyroptera tricolor, a leaf-roosting bat, in north-eastern Costa Rica

2004 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maarten J. Vonhof ◽  
M. Brock Fenton
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Rain Forest ◽  
Size Range ◽  
Habitat Availability ◽  
Occupancy Rate ◽  
Lowland Rain Forest ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Thyroptera Tricolor

Estimates of roosting habitat availability and population size using unbiased sampling regimes are completely lacking for any bat species. The use of conspicuous and accessible roosts in the developing, rolled leaves of Heliconia and Calathea plants by Thyroptera tricolor (Spix's disc-winged bat) provided an ideal opportunity to address this need. To assess roost availability and population size, the number of occupied and unoccupied leaves and bats in known areas in an area of lowland rain forest in north-eastern Costa Rica were quantified in 1998–99. A high density of leaves was available on any given day (mean: 43 leaves ha−1), but the density of roost leaves was low (mean: 2.5 leaves ha−1), corresponding with a low occupancy rate of 5.7 or 12% based on different methods of estimation. Developing leaves were available for 8–16 h in the preferred size range of leaves used by T. tricolor, and a maximum of 28–60 h, depending on the plant species. Using closed-population mark–recapture models, the 5.69-ha study area supported 261 individuals over a 4-mo period in 1998, corresponding to a density of 43 bats ha−1. These results have important implications for the results of studies on bat community structure and rarity, and for the behaviour and ecology of T. tricolor.

scholarly journals A Simulation Study on Increasing Capture Periods in Bayesian Closed Population Capture-Recapture Models with Heterogeneity

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-23
Author(s):  
Ross M. Gosky ◽  
Joel Sanqui
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Population Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Capture Recapture

Capture-Recapture models are useful in estimating unknown population sizes. A common modeling challenge for closed population models involves modeling unequal animal catchability in each capture period, referred to as animal heterogeneity. Inference about population size N is dependent on the assumed distribution of animal capture probabilities in the population, and that different models can fit a data set equally well but provide contradictory inferences about N. Three common Bayesian Capture-Recapture heterogeneity models are studied with simulated data to study the prevalence of contradictory inferences is in different population sizes with relatively low capture probabilities, specifically at different numbers of capture periods in the study.

scholarly journals Demography and population structure of Northeastern mediterranean monk seal population

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
MERVE KURT ◽  
ALI CEMAL GÜCÜ
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Camera Traps ◽  
The Body ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Open Population ◽  
Seal Population ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
Term Monitoring ◽  
Natural Marks

The Northeastern Mediterranean coasts that border southern Turkey host one of the last strongholds for the survival of the endangered Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus, 1779). The seal colonies inhabiting south coast of Turkey have been studied since 1994 through various short-term research projects focusing on distinct small populations that were thought to be isolated. In this study, the entire extent of the area was monitored approximately for 3 years (between 2015 and 2018) with camera traps places in 20 caves known to be actively used by the seals. A total of 7014 images taken throughout the study period, along with 25,100 images taken previously, were used to identify the seals inhabiting the area.  In total, 37 individuals were identified based on the natural marks on the body. Based on photo-identified seals, a mark-recapture method was applied to estimate the total population size within the Northeastern Mediterranean. The overall population size was found to be 46 (SE=7.7) in the case of closed population and 53(SE=34.8) in the case of open population during the study period.  The range of identified seals was almost six times larger than previously documented in the same area, reaching distances up to 245 km. The population estimate indicated a decrease in population size compared to previous studies.  Finally, the study emphasises the importance of long-term monitoring studies elucidating changes in the demographic parameters in relation to threats posed, rather than cut-paste measurement suggestions which are not applicable in reality, while structuring the conservation actions targeting survival of this highly endangered species.

scholarly journals Bayesian Estimation of Population Size Changes by Sampling Tajima’s Trees

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia A. Palacios ◽  
Amandine Véber ◽  
Lorenzo Cappello ◽  
Zhangyuan Wang ◽  
John Wakeley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Large State Space ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Efficient Alternative ◽  
Inference Methods ◽  
Kingman’S Coalescent

AbstractThe large state space of gene genealogies is a major hurdle for inference methods based on Kingman’s coalescent. Here, we present a new Bayesian approach for inferring past population sizes which relies on a lower resolution coalescent process we refer to as “Tajima’s coalescent”. Tajima’s coalescent has a drastically smaller state space, and hence it is a computationally more efficient model, than the standard Kingman coalescent. We provide a new algorithm for efficient and exact likelihood calculations for data without recombination, which exploits a directed acyclic graph and a correspondingly tailored Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We compare the performance of our Bayesian Estimation of population size changes by Sampling Tajima’s Trees (BESTT) with a popular implementation of coalescent-based inference in BEAST using simulated data and human data. We empirically demonstrate that BESTT can accurately infer effective population sizes, and it further provides an efficient alternative to the Kingman’s coalescent. The algorithms described here are implemented in the R package phylodyn, which is available for download at https://github.com/JuliaPalacios/phylodyn.

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