Conditional Independence by Typing

A central goal of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) is to separate modelling from inference. However, this goal is hard to achieve in practice. Users are often forced to re-write their models to improve efficiency of inference or meet restrictions imposed by the PPL. Conditional independence (CI) relationships among parameters are a crucial aspect of probabilistic models that capture a qualitative summary of the specified model and can facilitate more efficient inference. We present an information flow type system for probabilistic programming that captures conditional independence (CI) relationships and show that, for a well-typed program in our system, the distribution it implements is guaranteed to have certain CI-relationships. Further, by using type inference, we can statically deduce which CI-properties are present in a specified model. As a practical application, we consider the problem of how to perform inference on models with mixed discrete and continuous parameters. Inference on such models is challenging in many existing PPLs, but can be improved through a workaround, where the discrete parameters are used implicitly , at the expense of manual model re-writing. We present a source-to-source semantics-preserving transformation, which uses our CI-type system to automate this workaround by eliminating the discrete parameters from a probabilistic program. The resulting program can be seen as a hybrid inference algorithm on the original program, where continuous parameters can be drawn using efficient gradient-based inference methods, while the discrete parameters are inferred using variable elimination. We implement our CI-type system and its example application in SlicStan: a compositional variant of Stan. 1

Determining the Method of Predictive Maintenance for Aircraft Engine Using Machine Learning

Predictive maintenance (PdM) is indicated state of the machine to perform a schedule of maintenance based on historical data, integrity factors, statistical inference methods, and engineering approaches that are currently often applied to aircraft maintenance. The Predictive maintenance on aircraft to avoid the worse event (failure) and get information about the status of aircraft machines by applied on Machine Learning (ML) to get high accuracy and precision. The research aims to look for the method and technique of ML, which is the best applied on PdM for aircraft in accuracy indicators. The techniques of ML have been divided by classification and regression, which are compared on three ML methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and simple LSTM. The result of the study for classification technique are LSTM 98,7%, SVM 95,6%, and RF 900,3%. On other hand, Regression technique for ML result on MAE and RMSE are LSTM 13,55 and 22,13, SVM 15,77 and 20,51, RF 15,06 and 19,98. Classify technique is better and faster than regression when calculating the PdM on an aircraft engine. The LSTM method of ML is the best applied to it because of the accuracy higher and time process faster than other methods in this study. Finally, the LSTM method is highly recommended while using with classify technique on ML to determine the PdM on an aircraft engine.

Breadth First Search and Inference Methods Integration to satisfy table constraints

Within the Constraint Programming technology, so-called table constraints such as typical tables, compressed tables, smart tables, segmented tables, etc, are widely used. They can be used to represent any other types of constraints, and algorithms of the table constraint propagation (logical inference on constraints) allow eliminating a lot of "redundant" values from the domains of variables, while having low computational complexity. In the previous studies, the author proposed to divide smart tables into structures of C- and D-types. The generally accepted methodology for solving con-straint satisfaction problems is the combined application of constraint propagation methods and backtracking depth-first search methods. In the study, it is proposed to integrate breadth-first search methods and author`s method of table con-straint propagation. D-type smart tables are proposed to be represented as a join of several orthogonalized C-type smart tables. The search step is to select a pair of C-type smart tables to be joined and then propagate the restrictions. To de-termine the order of joining orthogonalized smart tables at each step of the search, a specialized heuristic is used, which reduces the search space, taking into account further calculations. When the restrictions are extended, the acceleration of the computation process is achieved by applying the developed reduction rules for the case of C-type smart tables. The developed hybrid method allows one to find all solutions to the problems of satisfying constraints modeled using one or several D-type smart tables, without decomposing tabular constraints into elementary tuples.

A Phylogenetic and Taxonomic Study on Xylodon (Hymenochaetales): Focusing on Three New Xylodon Species from Southern China

Three wood-inhabiting fungal species, Xylodon laceratus, X. montanus, and X. tropicus spp. nov., were collected from southern China, here proposed as new taxa based on a combination of morphological features and molecular evidence. Xylodon laceratus is characterized by the resupinate basidiomata with grandinioid hymenophore having cracked hymenial surface, and ellipsoid basidiospores; X. montanus is characterized by the annual basidiomata having the hard, brittle hymenophore with cream hymenial surface, and ellipsoid to broadly ellipsoid basidiospores (3.9–5.3 × 3.2–4.3 µm); and X. tropicus is characterized by its grandinioid hymenophore with buff to a pale brown hymenial surface and subglobose basidiospores measuring 2–4.8 × 1.6–4 µm. Sequences of ITS and nLSU rRNA markers of the studied samples were generated, and phylogenetic analyses were performed with maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony, and Bayesian inference methods. The ITS+nLSU analysis of the order Hymenochaetales indicated that the three new species clustered into the family Schizoporaceae, located in genus Xylodon; based on further analysis of ITS dataset, X. laceratus was a sister to X. heterocystidiatus; X. montanus closely grouped with X. subclavatus and X. xinpingensis with high support; while X. tropicus was retrieved as a sister to X. hastifer.

A guide to trajectory inference and RNA velocity

Technological developments have led to an explosion of high-throughput single cell data, which are revealing unprecedented perspectives on cell identity. Recently, significant attention has focused on investigating, from single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) data, cellular dynamic processes, such as cell differentiation, cell cycle and cell (de)activation. Trajectory inference methods estimate a trajectory, a collection of differentiation paths of a dynamic system, by ordering cells along the paths of such a dynamic process. While trajectory inference tools typically work with gene expression levels, common scRNA-seq protocols allow the identification and quantification of unspliced pre-mRNAs and mature spliced mRNAs, for each gene. By exploiting the abundance of unspliced and spliced mRNA, one can infer the RNA velocity of individual cells, i.e., the time derivative of the gene expression state of cells. Whereas traditional trajectory inference methods reconstruct cellular dynamics given a population of cells of varying maturity, RNA velocity relies on a dynamical model describing splicing dynamics. Here, we initially discuss conceptual and theoretical aspects of both approaches, then illustrate how they can be combined together, and finally present an example use-case on real data.