Fault slip potential induced by fluid injection in the Matouying EGS field, Tangshan seismic region, North China

The Tangshan region is one of the most seismically active areas in the North China, and the 1976 M 7.8 earthquake occurred on July 28th near the Tangshan fault zone. The Matouying Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) field is located ~90 km away from Tangshan City. Since the late 2020, preliminary hydraulic stimulation tests have been conducted at depths of ~3965–4000 m. Fluid injection into geothermal reservoir facilitates heat exchanger system. However, fluid injection may also induce earthquakes. In anticipation of the EGS operation at the Matouying uplift, it is essential to assess how the fault slip potential of the nearby active and quiescent faults will change in the presence of fluid injection. In this study, we first characterize the ambient stress field in the Tangshan region by performing stress tensor inversions using 98 focal mechanism data (ML ≥ 2.5). Then, we estimate the principal stress magnitudes near the Matouying EGS field by analyzing in situ stress measurements at shallow depths (~600–1000 m). According to these data, we perform a quantitative risk assessment using the Mohr-Coulomb framework in order to evaluate how the main active faults might respond to hypothetical injected-related pore pressure increases due to the upcoming EGS production. Our results mainly show that most earthquakes in the Tangshan seismic region have occurred on the faults that have relatively high fault slip potential in the present ambient stress field. At well distances of less than 15 km, the probabilistic fault slip potential on most of the boundary faults increase with continuing fluid injection over time, especially on these faults with well distances of ~6–10 km. The probabilistic fault slip potential increases linearly with the fluid injection rate. However, the FSP values decrease exponentially with increased unit permeability. The case study of the Matouying EGS field has important implications for the deep geothermal exploitation in China, especially for Gonghe EGS (in Qinghai province) and Xiong’an New Area (in Hebei province) geothermal reservoirs that are close to the Quaternary active faults. Ongoing injection operations in the regions should be conducted with these understandings in mind.

Determining the Risk Level of Heavy Rain Damage by Region in South Korea

For risk assessment, two methods, quantitative risk assessment and qualitative risk assessment, are used. In this study, we identified the regional risk level for a disaster-prevention plan for an overall area at the national level using qualitative risk assessment. To overcome the limitations of previous studies, a heavy rain damage risk index (HDRI) was proposed by clarifying the framework and using the indicator selection principle. Using historical damage data, we also carried out hierarchical cluster analysis to identify the major damage types that were not considered in previous risk-assessment studies. The result of the risk-level analysis revealed that risk levels are relatively high in some cities in South Korea where heavy rain damage occurs frequently or is severe. Five causes of damage were derived from this study—A: landslides, B: river inundation, C: poor drainage in arable areas, D: rapid water velocity, and E: inundation in urban lowlands. Finally, a prevention project was proposed considering regional risk level and damage type in this study. Our results can be used when macroscopically planning mid- to long-term disaster prevention projects.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world’s leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10−4), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

Generalized graphic-analytical model for evaluation of the fatality / structural collapse production mechanism on a building affected by an explosion

The paper highlights the generalized grapho-analytical model of analysis and evaluation of the mechanism of occurrence of the event scenario for the production of fatality/structural collapse in the case of a building affected by explosion. This mathematical model is based on research results in the field of civil explosives for the technological/occupational risks estimation and assessment, as well as threats to the security of protected areas that may be vulnerable through acts of malice. The process of quantitative risk assessment associated with explosion phenomena as a result of the detonation of an explosive charge, allows estimating result indicators based on the use of algorithms and models specific to associated hazards, in order to model the effects and consequences of event scenarios.

Quantitative risk assessment and safety databases in Romanian coal mining: preliminary systematic approach

Risk management is becoming increasingly more complex. Risk assessment, approached quantitatively, requires a factual database to define the likelihood of adverse health effects of workplace-related injuries and exposures, and it attempts to balance scientific knowledge with concerns of staff, investigators and administration. Practical guidance should be provided for Romanian coal mining companies to make progress in risk assessment process. Guidance is given on how to effectively introduce quantitative risk assessment in mining industry, the main goal being to highlight that the most valuable resource remains experience gained by effectively performing the process. Analyzing how various parameters are described/used, the paper aims to establish the place and role of quantitative risk analysis mining. Possibilities of developing safety/reliability database in coal mining are investigated. The block diagram describing the conceptual structure of a database on failures, safety of equipment and workers in the mining industry was developed. Because mining relies heavily on complex technologies - permanent mining facilities and large mobile equipment and support services - often located in isolated and hostile environments, the implementation of quantitative risk analysis and the development of a realistic database could be considered as a resilience business strategy and conversion of available knowledge into management actions.