Dynamic Modeling of Solar Radiation Disturbances Based on a Biomimetic Cloud Shading Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús García ◽  
Iván Portnoy ◽  
Ricardo Vasquez Padilla ◽  
Marco E. Sanjuan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Direct Solar Radiation ◽  
Complex Phenomenon ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Multi Objective Optimization ◽  
Tuning Parameters ◽  
Radiation Time

Variation in direct solar radiation is one of the main disturbances that any solar system must handle to maintain efficiency at acceptable levels. As known, solar radiation profiles change due to earth's movements. Even though this change is not manipulable, its behavior is predictable. However, at ground level, direct solar radiation mainly varies due to the effect of clouds, which is a complex phenomenon not easily predictable. In this paper, dynamic solar radiation time series in a two-dimensional (2D) spatial domain are obtained using a biomimetic cloud-shading model. The model is tuned and compared against available measurement time series. The procedure uses an objective function based on statistical indexes that allow extracting the most important characteristics of an actual set of curves. Then, a multi-objective optimization algorithm finds the tuning parameters of the model that better fit data. The results showed that it is possible to obtain responses similar to real direct solar radiation transients using the biomimetic model, which is useful for other studies such as testing control strategies in solar thermal plants.

scholarly journals A New Method for Fusion of Measured and Model-derived Solar Radiation Time-series

2014 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 1617-1626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Mieslinger ◽  
Felix Ament ◽  
Kaushal Chhatbar ◽  
Richard Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
New Method ◽  
Radiation Time

scholarly journals Reconstruction of global solar radiation time series from 1933 to 2013 at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 3139-3150 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. García ◽  
E. Cuevas ◽  
O. E. García ◽  
V. E. Cachorro ◽  
P. Pallé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Radiation Time

Abstract. This paper presents the reconstruction of the 80-year time series of daily global solar radiation (GSR) at the subtropical high-mountain Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO) located in Tenerife (The Canary Islands, Spain). For this purpose, we combine GSR estimates from sunshine duration (SD) data using the Ångström–Prescott method over the 1933/1991 period, and GSR observations directly performed by pyranometers between 1992 and 2013. Since GSR measurements have been used as a reference, a strict quality control has been applied based on principles of physical limits and comparison with LibRadtran model. By comparing with high quality GSR measurements, the precision and consistency over time of GSR estimations from SD data have been successfully documented. We obtain an overall root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.2% and an agreement between the variances of GSR estimations and GSR measurements within 92%. Nonetheless, this agreement significantly increases when the GSR estimation is done considering different daily fractions of clear sky (FCS). In that case, RMSE is reduced by half, to about 4.5%, when considering percentages of FCS > 40% (~ 90% of days in the testing period). Furthermore, we prove that the GSR estimations can monitor the GSR anomalies in consistency with GSR measurements and, then, can be suitable for reconstructing solar radiation time series. The reconstructed IZO GSR time series between 1933 and 2013 confirms change points and periods of increases/decreases of solar radiation at Earth's surface observed at a global scale, such as the early brightening, dimming and brightening. This fact supports the consistency of the IZO GSR time series presented in this work, which may be a reference for solar radiation studies in the subtropical North Atlantic region.

scholarly journals Analysis of residuals in daily solar radiation time series

1997 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.Yusof Sulaiman ◽  
W.M. Hlaing oo ◽  
Mahdi Abd. Wahab ◽  
Z.Abidin Sulaiman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Radiation Time

scholarly journals Quantification of the Solar Radiative Regime Variability Based on the Clearness Index

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergiu Lucaciu ◽  
Robert Blaga ◽  
Nicoleta Stefu ◽  
Marius Paulescu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Clearness Index ◽  
Stability Point ◽  
Stability Regime ◽  
Radiative Regime ◽  
Stable Variable

AbstractThe fluctuation of solar radiation at ground level represents a challenge in modeling the time series of solar irradiance. A procedure for the quantification of the instability of the solar radiative regime is reported. This procedure is based on the clearness index, as the ratio of the horizontal solar irradiance measured at ground level and the estimated one at extraterrestrial level. New quantities for classifying the days from the radiative stability point of view are being introduced. A procedure for classifying days according to their stability regime as stable, variable and unstable is presented.

scholarly journals Re-construction of global solar radiation time series from 1933 to 2013 at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 4191-4227 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. García ◽  
E. Cuevas ◽  
O. E. García ◽  
V. E. Cachorro ◽  
P. Pallé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Downward Radiation ◽  
Radiation Time

Abstract. This paper presents the re-construction of the 80 year time series of daily global shortwave downward radiation (SDR) at the subtropical high-mountain Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO, Spain). For this purpose, we combine SDR estimates from sunshine duration (SD) data using the Ångström–Prescott method over the 1933/1991 period, and SDR observations directly performed by pyranometers between 1992 and 2013. Since SDR measurements have been used as a reference, a strict quality control has been applied, when it was not possible data have been re-calibrated by using the LibRadtran model. By comparing to high quality SDR measurements, the precision and consistency over time of SDR estimations from SD data have successfully been documented. We obtain a overall root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.2% and an agreement between the variances of SDR estimations and SDR measurements within 92% (correlation coefficient of 0.96). Nonetheless, this agreement significantly increases when the SDR estimation is done considering different daily fractions of clear sky (FCS). In that case, RMSE is reduced by half, up to about 4.5%, when considering percentages of FCS > 40% (90% of days in the testing period). Furthermore, we prove that the SDR estimations can monitor the SDR anomalies in consistency with SDR measurements and, then, can be suitable for re-constructing solar radiation time series. The re-constructed IZO global SDR time series between 1933 and 2013 confirms discontinuities and periods of increases/decreases of solar radiation at Earth's surface observed at a global scale, such as the early brightening, dimming and brightening. This fact supports the consistency of the IZO SDR time series presented in this work, which may be a reference for solar radiation studies in the subtropical North Atlantic region.

scholarly journals Algorithmic Probability Method Versus Kolmogorov Complexity with No-Threshold Encoding Scheme for Short Time Series: An Analysis of Day-To-Day Hourly Solar Radiation Time Series over Tropical Western Indian Ocean

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 552
Author(s):  
Miloud Bessafi ◽  
Dragutin T. Mihailović ◽  
Peng Li ◽  
Anja Mihailović ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chabriat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Kolmogorov Complexity ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Encoding Scheme ◽  
Algorithmic Probability ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Solar Resource ◽  
Radiation Time

The complexity of solar radiation fluctuations received on the ground is nowadays of great interest for solar resource in the context of climate change and sustainable development. Over tropical maritime area, there are small inhabited islands for which the prediction of the solar resource at the daily and infra-daily time scales are important to optimize their solar energy systems. Recently, studies show that the theory of the information is a promising way to measure the solar radiation intermittency. Kolmogorov complexity (KC) is a useful tool to address the question of predictability. Nevertheless, this method is inaccurate for small time series size. To overcome this drawback, a new encoding scheme is suggested for converting hourly solar radiation time series values into a binary string for calculation of Kolmogorov complexity (KC-ES). To assess this new approach, we tested this method using the 2004–2006 satellite hourly solar data for the western part of the Indian Ocean. The results were compared with the algorithmic probability (AP) method which is used as the benchmark method to compute the complexity for short string. These two methods are a new approach to compute the complexity of short solar radiation time series. We show that KC-ES and AP methods give comparable results which are in agreement with the physical variability of solar radiation. During the 2004–2006 period, an important interannual SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly over the south of Mozambique Channel encounters in 2005, a strong MJO (Madden–Julian oscillation) took place in May 2005 over the equatorial Indian Ocean, and nine tropical cyclones crossed the western part of the Indian Ocean in 2004–2005 and 2005–2006 austral summer. We have computed KC-ES of the solar radiation time series for these three events. The results show that the Kolmogorov complexity with suggested encoding scheme (KC-ES) gives competitive measure of complexity in regard to the AP method also known as Solomonoff probability.

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