Algorithmic Probability Method Versus Kolmogorov Complexity with No-Threshold Encoding Scheme for Short Time Series: An Analysis of Day-To-Day Hourly Solar Radiation Time Series over Tropical Western Indian Ocean

The complexity of solar radiation fluctuations received on the ground is nowadays of great interest for solar resource in the context of climate change and sustainable development. Over tropical maritime area, there are small inhabited islands for which the prediction of the solar resource at the daily and infra-daily time scales are important to optimize their solar energy systems. Recently, studies show that the theory of the information is a promising way to measure the solar radiation intermittency. Kolmogorov complexity (KC) is a useful tool to address the question of predictability. Nevertheless, this method is inaccurate for small time series size. To overcome this drawback, a new encoding scheme is suggested for converting hourly solar radiation time series values into a binary string for calculation of Kolmogorov complexity (KC-ES). To assess this new approach, we tested this method using the 2004–2006 satellite hourly solar data for the western part of the Indian Ocean. The results were compared with the algorithmic probability (AP) method which is used as the benchmark method to compute the complexity for short string. These two methods are a new approach to compute the complexity of short solar radiation time series. We show that KC-ES and AP methods give comparable results which are in agreement with the physical variability of solar radiation. During the 2004–2006 period, an important interannual SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly over the south of Mozambique Channel encounters in 2005, a strong MJO (Madden–Julian oscillation) took place in May 2005 over the equatorial Indian Ocean, and nine tropical cyclones crossed the western part of the Indian Ocean in 2004–2005 and 2005–2006 austral summer. We have computed KC-ES of the solar radiation time series for these three events. The results show that the Kolmogorov complexity with suggested encoding scheme (KC-ES) gives competitive measure of complexity in regard to the AP method also known as Solomonoff probability.

Download Full-text

Dynamic Modeling of Solar Radiation Disturbances Based on a Biomimetic Cloud Shading Model

Journal of Solar Energy Engineering ◽

10.1115/1.4038961 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 140 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jesús García ◽

Iván Portnoy ◽

Ricardo Vasquez Padilla ◽

Marco E. Sanjuan

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Ground Level ◽

Direct Solar Radiation ◽

Complex Phenomenon ◽

Two Dimensional ◽

Multi Objective Optimization ◽

Tuning Parameters ◽

Radiation Time

Variation in direct solar radiation is one of the main disturbances that any solar system must handle to maintain efficiency at acceptable levels. As known, solar radiation profiles change due to earth's movements. Even though this change is not manipulable, its behavior is predictable. However, at ground level, direct solar radiation mainly varies due to the effect of clouds, which is a complex phenomenon not easily predictable. In this paper, dynamic solar radiation time series in a two-dimensional (2D) spatial domain are obtained using a biomimetic cloud-shading model. The model is tuned and compared against available measurement time series. The procedure uses an objective function based on statistical indexes that allow extracting the most important characteristics of an actual set of curves. Then, a multi-objective optimization algorithm finds the tuning parameters of the model that better fit data. The results showed that it is possible to obtain responses similar to real direct solar radiation transients using the biomimetic model, which is useful for other studies such as testing control strategies in solar thermal plants.

Download Full-text

A New Method for Fusion of Measured and Model-derived Solar Radiation Time-series

Energy Procedia ◽

10.1016/j.egypro.2014.02.182 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 48 ◽

pp. 1617-1626 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Theresa Mieslinger ◽

Felix Ament ◽

Kaushal Chhatbar ◽

Richard Meyer

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

New Method ◽

Radiation Time

Download Full-text

Implementation and Validating of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) for the Sunda Strait connecting the Java Sea to the Indian Ocean

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3457 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Subekti Mujiasih ◽

Jean-Marie Beckers ◽

Alexander Barth

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Indian Ocean ◽

Vertical Profile ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Model System ◽

Satellite Sst ◽

Regional Ocean Model System ◽

Regional Ocean Model ◽

The Indian Ocean ◽

Java Sea

<p>Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) has been simulated for the Sunda Strait, the Java Sea, and the Indian Ocean. The simulation was undertaken for thirteen months of data period (August 2013 &#8211; August 2014). However, we only used four months period for validation, namely September &#8211; December 2013. The input data involved the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) ocean model output by considering atmospheric forcing from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), without and with tides forcing from TPXO and rivers. The output included vertical profile temperature and salinity, sea surface temperature (SST), seas surface height (SSH), zonal (u), and meridional (v) velocity. We compared the model SST to satellite SST in time series, SSH to tides gauges data in time series, the model u and v component velocity to High Frequency (HF) radial velocity. The vertical profile temperature and salinity were compared to Argo float data and XBT. Besides, we validated the amplitude and phase of the ROMS seas surface height to amplitude and phase of the tides-gauges, including four constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1).</p>

Download Full-text

Microstructure of Climate-Forcing Aerosols: Aircraft Traverses from Clean to Polluted Conditions in the Indian Ocean

Microscopy and Microanalysis ◽

10.1017/s1431927600028476 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 7 (S2) ◽

pp. 480-481

Author(s):

James R. Anderson ◽

Peter Crozier

Keyword(s):

Indian Ocean ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Arabian Sea ◽

Aerosol Particles ◽

Climate Forcing ◽

Convergence Zone ◽

Sulfate Aerosols ◽

Large Area ◽

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽

The Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) was conducted in Feb.-Mar. 1999 in a large area of the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea to investigate climate forcing produced by pollutant aerosol particles being transported out of India, Pakistan, and Indochina during the Northeast (“Dry“) Monsoon2. Pollutant aerosols can be transported a thousand km or more by prevailing winds as far south as the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the convective band that separates Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropospheric air. We present here results from TEM examination of aerosol particles collected on INDOEX research flights of the NCAR C-130 aircraft.The climate forcing properties of sulfate aerosols over the oceans have long been recognized2. Sulfate and other particles scatter incoming solar radiation, reducing the amount of light (and heat) incident on the ocean surface and thus causing a cooling effect which may locally counter some of the warming effect due to greenhouse gases.

Download Full-text

Temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the Indian Ocean, derived from the CZCS time series images

Ciencias Marinas ◽

10.7773/cm.v31i3.49 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 31 (3) ◽

pp. 505-515

Author(s):

A B.M

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Indian Ocean ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

Phytoplankton Pigment ◽

Temporal And Spatial Variability ◽

The Indian Ocean ◽

Temporal And Spatial ◽

Pigment Concentrations ◽

Time Series Images

Download Full-text

Reconstruction of global solar radiation time series from 1933 to 2013 at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques ◽

10.5194/amt-7-3139-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 7 (9) ◽

pp. 3139-3150 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

R. D. García ◽

E. Cuevas ◽

O. E. García ◽

V. E. Cachorro ◽

P. Pallé ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Sunshine Duration ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

Global Scale ◽

High Mountain ◽

Atlantic Region ◽

Clear Sky ◽

Radiation Time

Abstract. This paper presents the reconstruction of the 80-year time series of daily global solar radiation (GSR) at the subtropical high-mountain Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO) located in Tenerife (The Canary Islands, Spain). For this purpose, we combine GSR estimates from sunshine duration (SD) data using the Ångström–Prescott method over the 1933/1991 period, and GSR observations directly performed by pyranometers between 1992 and 2013. Since GSR measurements have been used as a reference, a strict quality control has been applied based on principles of physical limits and comparison with LibRadtran model. By comparing with high quality GSR measurements, the precision and consistency over time of GSR estimations from SD data have been successfully documented. We obtain an overall root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.2% and an agreement between the variances of GSR estimations and GSR measurements within 92%. Nonetheless, this agreement significantly increases when the GSR estimation is done considering different daily fractions of clear sky (FCS). In that case, RMSE is reduced by half, to about 4.5%, when considering percentages of FCS > 40% (~ 90% of days in the testing period). Furthermore, we prove that the GSR estimations can monitor the GSR anomalies in consistency with GSR measurements and, then, can be suitable for reconstructing solar radiation time series. The reconstructed IZO GSR time series between 1933 and 2013 confirms change points and periods of increases/decreases of solar radiation at Earth's surface observed at a global scale, such as the early brightening, dimming and brightening. This fact supports the consistency of the IZO GSR time series presented in this work, which may be a reference for solar radiation studies in the subtropical North Atlantic region.

Download Full-text

Long-Term, Continuous Four-Component Solar Radiation Time Series from Measurement Sites in Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, Southwest Idaho

Boise State ScholarWorks ◽

10.18122/dcew_data/17 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

James McNamara

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Radiation Time

Download Full-text

Atmospheric CO and CH<sub>4</sub> time series and seasonal variations on Reunion Island from ground-based in situ and FTIR (NDACC and TCCON) measurements

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-13881-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (19) ◽

pp. 13881-13901 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Minqiang Zhou ◽

Bavo Langerock ◽

Corinne Vigouroux ◽

Mahesh Kumar Sha ◽

Michel Ramonet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Indian Ocean ◽

Mole Fraction ◽

Seasonal Cycles ◽

Reunion Island ◽

Time Period ◽

Réunion Island ◽

The Indian Ocean ◽

Good Agreement

Abstract. Atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) mole fractions are measured by ground-based in situ cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) analyzers and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers at two sites (St Denis and Maïdo) on Reunion Island (21∘ S, 55∘ E) in the Indian Ocean. Currently, the FTIR Bruker IFS 125HR at St Denis records the direct solar spectra in the near-infrared range, contributing to the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The FTIR Bruker IFS 125HR at Maïdo records the direct solar spectra in the mid-infrared (MIR) range, contributing to the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). In order to understand the atmospheric CO and CH4 variability on Reunion Island, the time series and seasonal cycles of CO and CH4 from in situ and FTIR (NDACC and TCCON) measurements are analyzed. Meanwhile, the difference between the in situ and FTIR measurements are discussed. The CO seasonal cycles observed from the in situ measurements at Maïdo and FTIR retrievals at both St Denis and Maïdo are in good agreement with a peak in September–November, primarily driven by the emissions from biomass burning in Africa and South America. The dry-air column averaged mole fraction of CO (XCO) derived from the FTIR MIR spectra (NDACC) is about 15.7 ppb larger than the CO mole fraction near the surface at Maïdo, because the air in the lower troposphere mainly comes from the Indian Ocean while the air in the middle and upper troposphere mainly comes from Africa and South America. The trend for CO on Reunion Island is unclear during the 2011–2017 period, and more data need to be collected to get a robust result. A very good agreement is observed in the tropospheric and stratospheric CH4 seasonal cycles between FTIR (NDACC and TCCON) measurements, and in situ and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) satellite measurements, respectively. In the troposphere, the CH4 mole fraction is high in August–September and low in December–January, which is due to the OH seasonal variation. In the stratosphere, the CH4 mole fraction has its maximum in March–April and its minimum in August–October, which is dominated by vertical transport. In addition, the different CH4 mole fractions between the in situ, NDACC and TCCON CH4 measurements in the troposphere are discussed, and all measurements are in good agreement with the GEOS-Chem model simulation. The trend of XCH4 is 7.6±0.4 ppb yr−1 from the TCCON measurements over the 2011 to 2017 time period, which is consistent with the CH4 trend of 7.4±0.5 ppb yr−1 from the in situ measurements for the same time period at St Denis.

Download Full-text