scholarly journals Conservative Estimations of Reliability With Limited Sampling

Author(s):  
Victor Picheny ◽  
Nam-Ho Kim ◽  
Raphael T. Haftka

The objective of this paper is to provide a method of safely estimating reliability based on small samples. First, it is shown that the commonly used estimators of the parameters of the normal distribution function are biased, and they tend to lead to unconservative estimates of reliability. Then, two ways of making this estimation conservative are proposed: (1) adding constraints when a distribution is fitted to the data to bias it to be conservative, and (2) using the bootstrap method to estimate the bias needed for a given level of conservativeness. The relationship between the accuracy and the conservativeness of the estimates is explored for a normal distribution. In particular, detailed results are presented for the case when the goal is 95% likelihood to be conservative. The bootstrap approach is found to be more accurate for this level of conservativeness. It is then applied to the reliability analysis of a composite panel under thermal loading. Finally, we explore the influence of sample sizes and target probability of failure on estimates quality, and show that for a constant level of conservativeness, small samples and low probabilities can lead to a high risk of large overestimation while this risk is limited to a very reasonable value for samples above.

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Ge ◽  
Xintian Liu ◽  
Yu Fang ◽  
Haijie Wang ◽  
Xu Wang ◽  
...  

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce error ellipse into the bootstrap method to improve the reliability of small samples and the credibility of the S-N curve. Design/methodology/approach Based on the bootstrap method and the reliability of the original samples, two error ellipse models are proposed. The error ellipse model reasonably predicts that the discrete law of expanded virtual samples obeys two-dimensional normal distribution. Findings By comparing parameters obtained by the bootstrap method, improved bootstrap method (normal distribution) and error ellipse methods, it is found that the error ellipse method achieves the expansion of sampling range and shortens the confidence interval, which improves the accuracy of the estimation of parameters with small samples. Through case analysis, it is proved that the tangent error ellipse method is feasible, and the series of S-N curves is reasonable by the tangent error ellipse method. Originality/value The error ellipse methods can lay a technical foundation for life prediction of products and have a progressive significance for the quality evaluation of products.


2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wooyoung (William) Jang ◽  
Kevin K. Byon

Purpose Grounded in the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2) (Venkatesh et al., 2012), the purpose of this paper is to examine the antecedents and consequence associated with esports gameplay by proposing the Esports Consumption (ESC) model, including six determinants of esports gameplay intention (hedonic motivation, habit, price value, perceived effort expectancy, social influence and flow) and behavioral consequence (media consumption intention of esports events) that were linked to esports gameplay. Design/methodology/approach The proposed model was tested using the data (n=348) that were collected from esports consumers at two points in time. Per the technology adoption theories (i.e. TAM, UTAUT2), the authors incorporated a temporal separation when measuring the relationship between playing intention and playing behavior. For the purpose of data analysis, CFA and SEM were used to examine the hypothesized model. Findings As a result, four determinants (i.e. hedonic motivation, price value, effort expectancy and flow) were identified as the critical factors influencing esports consumers’ esports gameplay intention. Furthermore, the bootstrap method procedure verified that a sequential relationship among esports gameplay intention, esports gameplay and media consumption of esports events. Originality/value Theoretically, it has developed a research model that explains various triggers resulting from esports gameplay intention, which is causally linked to esports gameplay and media consumption behavior. Practically, the primary implication has to do with providing information regarding esports consumers’ playing behavior with esports game publishers, which organize esports events and leagues.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guofu Chen ◽  
Yanzhao Tang ◽  
Yawen Su

Employee turnover caused by over-qualification has become a new problem in organizational management. The mechanism underpinning the boundaries between perceived over-qualification and employee turnover, however, remains unclear. To address this gap, the current study employed multi-factor ANOVA, hierarchical regression analysis and the bootstrap method to analyze the relationship between perceived over-qualification and employee turnover intention based on the survey data of 396 respondents in China. Overall, the results revealed that perceived over-qualification was positively correlated with turnover intention. It was also found that self-efficacy had a mediating effect on the relationship between perceived over-qualification and turnover intention. Further, professional identity had a moderating effect on the relationship between perceived over-qualification and turnover intention. Our findings expand the boundary of influence around perceived over-qualification and provide theoretical support for employee management.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuyu Chen ◽  
Li Ran ◽  
Yuting Zhang ◽  
Jinru Yang ◽  
Hui Yao ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Global countries are suffering from a shortage of health professionals. Turnover intention is closely related to job satisfaction and burnout, making good use of these relationships could alleviate the crisis. Our research aims to examine the mediating role of job satisfaction in the relationship between burnout and turnover intention. Methods This research was conducted in Huangpi, China. The convenience sampling method and self-administereded questionnaires were used. 1370 of valid samples were collected with 97.72% effective rate. Descriptive analyses were conducted to describe social demographic factors. The structural equation model (SEM) was performed to adjust model fitting, and the mediation effect test was carried out by using the bootstrap method. Sobel-Z test was used to verify the significance of mediation effect. Results The mean age was 36.98 (SD = 9.84). The fitting indices of hypothetical model are not good. After the adjustments, χ2/df = 5.590, GFI = 0.932, AGFI = 0.901, CFI = 0.977, NFI = 0.973, IFI = 0.977, TLI = 0.970, RESEA = 0.058. The revised model fitted well, and the SEM was put up by using the bootstrap method. The mediating effect is partial, and Soble-Z test indicates that the mediation effect is significant. Burnout is negatively correlated with job satisfaction (p < 0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is − 0.41. Job satisfaction is also negatively correlated with turnover intention (p < 0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is − 0.18. Burnout is positively correlated with turnover intention (p < 0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is 0.83. Conclusions Job satisfaction is a mediating variable that affects the relationship between burnout and turnover intention. The mediating effect was a partial mediating effect and has a low impact of 7.4%. Improving treatment and giving more promotion opportunities for workers to improve job satisfaction, conducting career planning course and paying attention to employee psychological health to reduce job burnout. The above measures may be helpful to reduce employee turnover rate and alleviating the current situation of a shortage of health personnel in China.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuyu Chen ◽  
Li Ran ◽  
Yuting Zhang ◽  
Jinru Yang ◽  
Hui Yao ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Global countries are suffering from a shortage of health professionals. Turnover intention is closely related to job satisfaction and burnout, making good use of these relationship could alleviate the crisis. The research aims to examine the mediating role of job satisfaction in the relationship between burnout and turnover intention. Methods: This research was conducted in Huangpi, China. Convenience sampling methods and self-administereded questionnaires were used. 1370 of valid samples were collected with 97.72% effective rate. Descriptive analyses were conducted to describe social demographic factors. The structural equation model (SEM) was performed to adjust model fitting, and the mediation effect test was carried out by using the bootstrap method. Sobel-Z test was used to verify the significance of mediation effect. Results: The mean age was 36.98 (SD=9.84). The fitting indices of hypothetical model is not good. After the adjustments, c 2 /df =5.590, GFI=0.932, AGFI=0.901, CFI=0.977, NFI=0.973, IFI=0.977, TLI=0.970, RESEA=0.058. The revised model fitted well, and the SEM was put up by using the bootstrap method. The mediating effect is partial, and Soble-Z test indicates that the mediation effect is significant. Burnout is negatively correlated with job satisfaction (p<0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is -0.41. Job satisfaction is also negatively correlated with turnover intention (p<0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is -0.18. Burnout is positively correlated with turnover intention (p<0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is 0.83. Conclusions: Job satisfaction is a mediating variable that affects the relationship between burnout and turnover intention. The mediating effect was a partial mediating effect and has a low impact of 7.4%. Improving treatment and giving more promotion opportunities for workers to improve job satisfaction, conducting career planning courses and paying attention to employee psychological health to reduce job burnout. The above measures may be helpful to reduce employee turnover rate and alleviating the current situation of shortage of health personnel in China.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiying Zhang ◽  
Zixuan Meng ◽  
Beibei Chen ◽  
Xiu Yang ◽  
Xinran Zhao

The complexity of the emotional presentation of users to Artificial Intelligence (AI) virtual assistants is mainly manifested in user motivation and social emotion, but the current research lacks an effective conversion path from emotion to acceptance. This paper innovatively cuts from the perspective of trust, establishes an AI virtual assistant acceptance model, conducts an empirical study based on the survey data from 240 questionnaires, and uses multilevel regression analysis and the bootstrap method to analyze the data. The results showed that functionality and social emotions had a significant effect on trust, where perceived humanity showed an inverted U relationship on trust, and trust mediated the relationship between both functionality and social emotions and acceptance. The findings explain the emotional complexity of users toward AI virtual assistants and extend the transformation path of technology acceptance from the trust perspective, which has implications for the development and design of AI applications.


Author(s):  
Xuyu Chen ◽  
Li Ran ◽  
Yuting Zhang ◽  
Jinru Yang ◽  
Hui Yao ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Global countries are suffering from a shortage of health professionals. Turnover intention is closely related to job satisfaction and burnout, making good use of these relationships could alleviate the crisis. Our research aims to examine the mediating role of job satisfaction in the relationship between burnout and turnover intention. Methods: This research was conducted in Huangpi, China. The convenience sampling method and self-administereded questionnaires were used. 1370 of valid samples were collected with 97.72% effective rate. Descriptive analyses were conducted to describe social demographic factors. The structural equation model (SEM) was performed to adjust model fitting, and the mediation effect test was carried out by using the bootstrap method. Sobel-Z test was used to verify the significance of mediation effect. Results: The mean age was 36.98 (SD=9.84). The fitting indices of hypothetical model are not good. After the adjustments, χ2/df =5.590, GFI=0.932, AGFI=0.901, CFI=0.977, NFI=0.973, IFI=0.977, TLI=0.970, RESEA=0.058. The revised model fitted well, and the SEM was put up by using the bootstrap method. The mediating effect is partial, and Soble-Z test indicates that the mediation effect is significant. Burnout is negatively correlated with job satisfaction (p<0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is -0.41. Job satisfaction is also negatively correlated with turnover intention (p<0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is -0.18. Burnout is positively correlated with turnover intention (p<0.01) and the standardized path coefficient is 0.83. Conclusions: Job satisfaction is a mediating variable that affects the relationship between burnout and turnover intention. The mediating effect was a partial mediating effect and has a low impact of 7.4%. Improving treatment and giving more promotion opportunities for workers to improve job satisfaction, conducting career planning course and paying attention to employee psychological health to reduce job burnout. The above measures may be helpful to reduce employee turnover rate and alleviating the current situation of a shortage of health personnel in China.


2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (3) ◽  
pp. 2545-2560
Author(s):  
Johan Lyhagen ◽  
Per Ahlgren

AbstractJournal rankings often show significant changes compared to previous rankings. This gives rise to the question of how well estimated the rank of a journal is. In this contribution, we consider uncertainty in a ranking of economics journals. We use the invariant method of Pinski and Narin to rank the journals. We propose an uncertainty measure, which is based on a bootstrap approach. The measure is the average absolute change in rank, which we see as a reasonable uncertainty measure regarding rankings. We further calculate, based on the bootstrap method, 95% confidence interval for the observed values of the invariant method. We show that ranks of the highest, as well as the lowest, ranked journals are well estimated, while there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the rank of many mid-ranked journals. The distribution of the underlying measure is useful for identifying groups of journals that are more or less of the same quality (from the point of view of the invariant measure). The journal with the highest observed value of the invariant measure, Journal of Political Economy, has the best performance and constitutes a singleton, whereas Quarterly Journal of Economics and Econometrica form the next group (there is a slight overlap between the two with respect to confidence intervals). The journals ranked between about 190–230 form another group in which there are no major quality differences between the journals, as the confidence intervals are overlapping.


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