Effect of Expert Data Variability in the Change Prediction Method

Author(s):  
Kayla A. Von Hagel ◽  
Scott M. Ferguson

The Change Prediction Method is an approach that has been proposed in the literature as a way to assess the risk of change propagation. This approach requires experts to define the elements of the design structure matrix and provide both impact and likelihood values for each subsystem interaction. The combined risk values produced by the Change Prediction Method indicate where high probabilities of propagation may exist, but the results rely heavily on the supplied expert data. This study explores how potential variability in expert data impacts the rank order of returned risk values from the Change Prediction Method. Results are presented that indicate significant changes in rank order, highlighting both the importance of expert data accuracy and the insights that can be gained from the Change Prediction Method as a design tool.

Author(s):  
Christopher Brooks ◽  
Gregory M. Mocko

This paper details a method of change prediction that builds upon the traditional component-component design structure matrix by incorporating manufacturing costs and modeling higher orders of coupling. A coupling index is also created to assess the level of coupling between interfaced features. A BMW X5 headliner assembly and a Ryobi hand-held drill are analyzed using the proposed method to identify the features and components that offer the greatest ease of change. The analysis of the BMW X5 headliner shows that the rectangular slots on the bottom of the adapter plates are the feature that offers the greatest ease of change, while the handles are the component that offers the greatest ease of change. For the Ryobi drill, the battery is identified as the component that offers the greatest ease of change. The proposed method of change prediction proves to be an effective and efficient means of modeling change propagation and assessing change impact.


2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Inayat Ullah ◽  
Dunbing Tang ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Leilei Yin

Product family (PF) design is a widely used strategy in the industry, as it allows meeting diverse design requirements. Change propagation in any PF is difficult to predict. Consequently, while numerous design change management methodologies presently exist, their application is restricted to a single artifact. This issue is overcome in the present study. The proposed framework explores effective change propagation paths (CPPs) by considering the risks associated with design changes in the PF with the aim of minimizing the overall redesign cost. The propagated risk, which would result in rework, is quantified in terms of change impact and propagation likelihood. Moreover, a design structure matrix (DSM) based mathematical model and an algorithm for its implementation are proposed to investigate the change propagation across the PF. Finally, to demonstrate their effectiveness, a PF of electric kettles is examined in a case study. The study findings confirm that the proposed technique is appropriate for evaluating different CPPs in PF.


Author(s):  
Ying Xiang ◽  
Rong Mo ◽  
Hu Qiao

A change and maintenance method is proposed based on the change propagation model and the procedure model information for solving data maintenance problem of 3D machining procedure model change and to help improve the flexibility of 3D machining procedure model and the reliability of the change result. Design Structure Matrix (DSM) is established by analyzing the relationships between machining features in the machining process route to obtain all possible propagation paths. On the basis of obtained paths, machining features that may be affected and machining procedure models related to machining features are stored by the structured method. Algorithms to solve the problems of adding, deleting and modifying machining features are proposed to realize the change and maintenance of 3D machining procedure model by combining machining procedure model’s information in the machining process route. In the end, some numerical examples are given to explain both rationality and feasibility of the proposed approaches.


2011 ◽  
Vol 314-316 ◽  
pp. 1607-1611
Author(s):  
Zhong Wei Gong ◽  
Hai Cheng Yang ◽  
Rong Mo ◽  
Tao Chen

Engineering change is an important and complex activity for manufacturing enterprises. In order to improve the efficiency of engineering change, designers should pay different attentions to different nodes of product development network. In that case, a method of classifying the nodes was proposed. First, we proposed a method to cluster the nodes based on design structure matrix; then, we analyzed the indexes for evaluating the importance of nodes and studied the method of classifying the nodes of product development network; finally, the experiment of managing a type of motorcycle engine was employed to validate our method and it showed the correctness of the proposed method.


2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hu Qiao ◽  
Rong Mo ◽  
Ying Xiang

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish an adaptive assembly, to realize the adaptive changing of the models and to improve the flexibility and reliability of assembly change. For a three-dimensional (3D) computer-aided design (CAD) assembly in a changing process, there are two practical problems. One is delivering parameters’ information not smoothly. The other one is to easily destroy an assembly structure. Design/methodology/approach – The paper establishes associated parameters design structure matrix of related parts, and predicts possible propagation paths of the parameters. Based on the predicted path, structured storage is made for the affected parameters, tolerance range and the calculation relations. The study combines structured path information and all constrained assemblies to build the adaptive assembly, proposes an adaptive change algorithm for assembly changing and discusses the extendibility of the adaptive assembly. Findings – The approach would improve the flexibility and reliability of assembly change and be applied to different CAD platform. Practical implications – The examples illustrate the construction and adaptive behavior of the assembly and verify the feasibility and reasonability of the adaptive assembly in practical application. Originality/value – The adaptive assembly model proposed in the paper is an original method to assembly change. And compared with other methods, good results have been obtained.


2008 ◽  
Vol 44-46 ◽  
pp. 595-600
Author(s):  
Xiao Ming Qian ◽  
Dun Bing Tang

In this paper a simulation algorithm for concurrent product development process (CPDP) is presented based on Design Structure Matrix (DSM). An aggregate DSM is used to model the CPDP. To simulate the influence on the process of the time limit and the resource competition, the schedule and resource model are established. A method is also advanced to handle task delay. At last a case is used to validate the simulation algorithm and to show the influence on the process of task duration and resource.


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