Improved Bayesian Update Method on Flaw Distributions Reflecting Non-Destructive Inspection Result

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Yuhei Miyamoto ◽  
Kai Lu ◽  
Akihiro Mano ◽  
Yinsheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Likelihood Functions ◽  
Pressurized Thermal Shock ◽  
Bayesian Update ◽  
Non Destructive ◽  
Reactor Pressure

Abstract We have developed a probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis code named PASCAL4 for evaluating the failure frequency of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) through consideration of neutron irradiation embrittlement and transients such as pressurized thermal shock events. It is well-known that flaw distributions, including flaw size and density, have an important role in the failure frequency calculations of a PFM analysis. NUREG-2163 report provides a methodology to obtain much more realistic flaw distributions based on a Bayesian updating approach by reflecting the non-destructive inspection (NDI) results, which is applicable for case when there are flaw indications through NDI. There may, however, be no flaw indications resulting after inspection of some RPVs. Therefore, we proposed likelihood functions applicable for both cases when flaws are detected and when there is no flaw indication as the NDI results. In the Bayesian updating method, the likelihood functions were applied to independently acquire the posterior distributions of flaw depth and density using the same NDI results. In this study, we further improve the likelihood functions to enable them to update flaw depth and density simultaneously. Based on this improved likelihood function, several application examples are presented where the flaw distributions are estimated by reflecting the NDI results through Bayesian update. In addition, PFM analyses are also performed considering those estimated flaw distributions. All the results indicate that the improved likelihood functions are useful for estimating flaw distributions.

Verification of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis Code Through Benchmark Analyses

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinsheng Li ◽  
Shumpei Uno ◽  
Koichi Masaki ◽  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Terry Dickson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Pressurized Thermal Shock ◽  
Great Confidence ◽  
Reactor Pressure

A probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis code PASCAL has been developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency based on Japanese methods and data to evaluate failure probabilities and failure frequencies of Japanese reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) considering pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events and neutron irradiation embrittlement. To verify PASCAL, we have been performing benchmark analyses by using a PFM code FAVOR which has been developed in the United States and utilized in nuclear regulation. Based on two-year activities, the applicability of PASCAL in failure probability and failure frequency evaluation of Japanese RPVs was confirmed with great confidence. The analysis conditions, approaches and results are given in this paper.

Development of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis Code PASCAL Version 4 for Reactor Pressure Vessels

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Lu ◽  
Koichi Masaki ◽  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Yinsheng Li ◽  
Shumpei Uno
Keyword(s):  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Stress Distributions ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Pressurized Thermal Shock ◽  
Reactor Pressure

In Japan, Japan Atomic Energy Agency has developed a PFM analysis code PASCAL (PFM Analysis of Structural Components in Aging LWRs) for structural integrity assessment of Japanese reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) considering neutron irradiation embrittlement and pressurized thermal shock transients. By reflecting the latest knowledge and findings, the PASCAL code has been continuously improved. In this paper, the development of PASCAL Version 4 (hereafter, PASCAL4) is described. Several analysis functions incorporated into PASCAL4 for evaluating the failure frequency of RPVs are introduced, for example, the evaluation function of confidence level of failure frequency considering epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in probabilistic variables, the recent stress intensity factor (KI) solutions and KI calculation methods considering complicated stress distributions, and the recent Japanese irradiation embrittlement prediction method. Finally, using PASCAL4, a PFM analysis example for a Japanese model RPV is presented.

Development of Crack Evaluation Models for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analyses of Japanese Reactor Pressure Vessels

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Lu ◽  
Koichi Masaki ◽  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Yinsheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Evaluation Models ◽  
Reactor Pressure

In Japan, a probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis code PASCAL has been developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency for structural integrity assessment of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs). The most recent release is PASCAL Version 4 (hereafter, PSACAL4) which can be used to evaluate the failure frequency of RPVs considering neutron irradiation embrittlement and pressurized thermal shock events. For the integrity assessment of RPVs, development of crack evaluation models is important. In this study, finite element analyses are performed firstly to verify the stress intensity factor calculations of cracks in PASCAL4. In addition, the applicability of the crack evaluation models in PASCAL4 such as the location of embedded cracks, crack shape and depth of surface cracks, and the increment of crack propagation is investigated. Based on sensitivity analyses of crack evaluation models for Japanese RPVs using PASCAL4, the effects of these evaluation models on failure frequency are clarified. From the analysis results, crack evaluation models recommended to the failure frequency evaluation for a Japanese model RPV are discussed.

Guideline on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis for Japanese Reactor Pressure Vessels

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Kazuya Osakabe ◽  
Shumpei Uno ◽  
Yinsheng Li ◽  
Shinobu Yoshimura
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Neutron Irradiation ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Reactor Pressure

In Japan, to prevent nil-ductile fracture of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) due to neutron irradiation embrittlement, deterministic fracture mechanics evaluation in accordance with the standards developed by the Japan Electric Association is performed for assessing the structural integrity of RPVs under pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events considering neutron irradiation embrittlement. In recent years, a structural integrity assessment methodology based on probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) has been introduced into the regulations in the United States and a few European countries. PFM is a rational methodology for evaluating the failure frequency of important pressure boundary components by considering the statistical distributions of various influence factors related to ageing due to the long-term operation. At Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), a PFM analysis code called PASCAL has been developed to evaluate the failure frequency of RPVs considering neutron irradiation embrittlement and PTS events. In addition, JAEA has developed a guideline for the PFM based structural integrity assessment of RPVs to promote the applicability of PFM in Japan and achieve the objective that an engineer/analyst who familiar with the fracture mechanics to perform PFM analyses and evaluate through-wall cracking frequency (TWCF) of RPVs easily. The guideline consists of a main body (general requirements), explanation (guidance), and several supplements. The technical basis for PFM analysis is also provided, and the new information and better fracture mechanics models are included in the guideline. In this paper, an overview of the guideline and some typical analysis results obtained based on the guideline and the Japanese database related to PTS evaluation are presented.

Guideline on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis for Japanese Reactor Pressure Vessels

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Kazuya Osakabe ◽  
Shumpei Uno ◽  
Yinsheng Li ◽  
Shinobu Yoshimura
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Neutron Irradiation ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Reactor Pressure

Abstract In Japan, to prevent nil-ductile fracture of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) due to neutron irradiation embrittlement, deterministic fracture mechanics evaluation in accordance with the codes provided by the Japan Electric Association is performed for assessing the structural integrity of RPVs under pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events considering neutron irradiation embrittlement. In recent years, a structural integrity assessment methodology based on probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) has been introduced into the regulations in the United States and a few European countries. PFM is a rational methodology for evaluating the failure frequency of important pressure boundary components by considering the probabilistic distributions of various influence factors related to aged degradation due to the long-term operation. In Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), a PFM analysis code called PASCAL has been developed to evaluate the failure frequency of RPVs considering neutron irradiation embrittlement and PTS events. In addition, we have developed a guideline for structural integrity assessment of RPVs based on PFM to improve the applicability of PFM in Japan and enable persons who have knowledge on fracture mechanics to perform PFM analyses and evaluate through-wall cracking frequency (TWCF) of RPVs easily. The guideline consists of a main body, explanation, and several supplements. The technical basis for PFM analysis is provided, and the latest knowledge is included in the guideline. In this paper, an overview of the guideline and some typical analysis results obtained based on the guideline and the Japanese database related to PTS evaluation are presented.

Application of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Methodology for Japanese Reactor Pressure Vessels Using PASCAL4

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Lu ◽  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Yinsheng Li ◽  
Shinobu Yoshimura
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Reactor Pressure

Abstract Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methodology, which represents the influence parameters in their inherent probabilistic distributions, is deemed to be promising in the structural integrity assessment of pressure-boundary components in nuclear power plants. To strengthen the applicability of PFM methodology in Japan, Japan Atomic Energy Agency has developed a PFM analysis code called PASCAL4 (PFM Analysis of Structural Components in Aging LWRs, Version 4) which can be used to evaluate the failure frequency of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) considering neutron irradiation embrittlement and pressurized thermal shock events. PASCAL4 is expected to make a significant contribution to the probabilistic integrity assessment of Japanese RPVs. In this study, PFM analyses are performed for a Japanese model RPV using PASCAL4, and the effects of non-destructive examination and neutron fluence mitigation on failure frequency of RPV are quantitatively evaluated. From the analysis results, it is concluded that PASCAL4 is useful for the structural integrity assessment of RPVs and can enhance the applicability of PFM methodology.

Verification of Warm Prestressing Effect Under a Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) Event

1994 ◽  
Vol 116 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Okamura ◽  
G. Yagawa ◽  
T. Hidaka ◽  
Y. Urabe ◽  
M. Satoh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vessel Wall ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Predictive Equations ◽  
Warm Prestressing ◽  
Pressurized Thermal Shock ◽  
Reactor Steels ◽  
Fracture Tests ◽  
Integrity Analysis ◽  
Temperature Margin ◽  
Reactor Pressure

Fracture tests for the verification of WPS (warm prestressing) effect were carried out by using large flat specimens and big compact specimens with low toughness. In the case of monotonical KI increasing during cooling, the specimen broke within the scatter band of KIC. On the other hand, when KI was decreasing during cooling, the specimens did not break even if KI values were beyond the scatter band of KIC. That is, WPS effect was confirmed even for the low toughness steel like reactor pressure vessel wall under neutron irradiation. Also, KI values at fracture can be predicted by Chell’s theory. By applying WPS effect and the predictive equations for irradiation embrittlement for Japanese PWR reactor steels to the PTS integrity analysis, much more temperature margin can be expected.

French RPV PTS Assessment: An Overview of EDF Research and Development in Progress on Thermalhydraulic, Materials and Mechanical Aspects

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Moinereau ◽  
Jean-Michel Frund ◽  
Henriette Churier-Bossennec ◽  
Georges Bezdikian ◽  
Alain Martin
Keyword(s):  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Crack Arrest ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Short Description ◽  
Constraint Effect ◽  
Materials Properties ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Pressurized Thermal Shock ◽  
Reactor Pressure

A significant extensive Research & Development work is conducted by Electricite´ de France (EDF) related to the structural integrity re-assessment of the French 900 and 1300 MWe reactor pressure vessels in order to increase their lifetime. Within the framework of this programme, numerous developments have been implemented or are in progress related to the methodology to assess flaws during a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) event. The paper contains three aspects: a short description of the specific French approach for RPV PTS assessment, a presentation of recent improvements on thermalhydraulic, materials and mechanical aspects, and finally an overview of the present R&D programme on thermalhydraulic, materials and mechanical aspects. Regarding the last aspect on present R&D programme, several projects in progress will be shortly described. This overview includes the redefinition of some significant thermalhydraulic transients based on some new three-dimensional CFD computations (focused at the present time on small break LOCA transient), the assessment of vessel materials properties, and the improvement of the RPV PTS structural integrity assessment including several themes such as warm pre-stress (WPS), crack arrest, constraint effect ....

Verification of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis Code for Reactor Pressure Vessel

2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinsheng Li ◽  
Genshichiro Katsumata ◽  
Koichi Masaki ◽  
Shotaro Hayashi ◽  
Yu Itabashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Integrity Assessments ◽  
Reactor Pressure

Abstract Nowadays, it has been recognized that probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) is a promising methodology in structural integrity assessments of aged pressure boundary components of nuclear power plants, because it can rationally represent the influencing parameters in their inherent probabilistic distributions without over conservativeness. A PFM analysis code PFM analysis of structural components in aging light water reactor (PASCAL) has been developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency to evaluate the through-wall cracking frequencies of domestic reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) considering neutron irradiation embrittlement and pressurized thermal shock (PTS) transients. In addition, efforts have been made to strengthen the applicability of PASCAL to structural integrity assessments of domestic RPVs against nonductile fracture. A series of activities has been performed to verify the applicability of PASCAL. As a part of the verification activities, a working group was established with seven organizations from industry, universities, and institutes voluntarily participating as members. Through one-year activities, the applicability of PASCAL for structural integrity assessments of domestic RPVs was confirmed with great confidence. This paper presents the details of the verification activities of the working group, including the verification plan, approaches, and results.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document