scholarly journals Added value of high-resolution regional climate simulations for regional impact studies

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Hackenbruch ◽  
Gerd Schädler ◽  
Janus Willem Schipper
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Regional Impact ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Climate Simulations

scholarly journals Precipitation over southern Africa: Is there consensus among GCMs, RCMs and observational data?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Chara Karypidou ◽  
Eleni Katragkou ◽  
Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
Direct Contrast ◽  
Improved Performance

Abstract. The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Ensuring that our modelling tools are fit for the purpose of assessing these changes is critical. In this work we compare a range of satellite products along with gauge-based datasets. Additionally, we investigate the behaviour of regional climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) – Africa domain, along with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6). We identify considerable variability in the standard deviation of precipitation between satellite products that merge with rain gauges and satellite products that do not, during the rainy season (Oct–Mar), indicating high observational uncertainty for specific regions over SAF. Good agreement both in spatial pattern and the strength of the calculated trends is found between satellite and gauge-based products, however. Both CORDEX-Africa and CMIP5 ensembles underestimate the observed trends during the analysis period. The CMIP6 ensemble displayed persistent drying trends, in direct contrast to the observations. The regional ensemble exhibited improved performance compared to its forcing (CMIP5), when the annual cycle and the extreme precipitation indices were examined, confirming the added value of the higher resolution regional climate simulations. The CMIP6 ensemble displayed a similar behaviour to CMIP5, however reducing slightly the ensemble spread. However, we show that reproduction of some key SAF phenomena, like the Angolan Low (which exerts a strong influence on regional precipitation), still poses a challenge for the global and regional models. This is likely a result of the complex climatic process that take place. Improvements in observational networks (both in-situ and satellite), as well as continued advancements in high-resolution modelling will be critical, in order to develop a robust assessment of climate change for southern Africa.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Evaluation of WRF Downscaling Capabilities over Western Australia in Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Extremes

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 370-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Andrys ◽  
Thomas J. Lyons ◽  
Jatin Kala
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Simulations

AbstractThe authors evaluate a 30-yr (1981–2010) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model regional climate simulation over the southwest of Western Australia (SWWA), a region with a Mediterranean climate, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions. The analysis assesses the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate extremes, using a selection of climate indices, with an emphasis on metrics that are relevant for forestry and agricultural applications. Two nested domains at 10- and 5-km resolution are examined, with the higher-resolution simulation resolving convection explicitly. Simulation results are compared with a high-resolution, gridded observational dataset that provides daily rainfall, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures. Results show that, at both resolutions, the model is able to simulate the daily, seasonal, and annual variation of temperature and precipitation well, including extreme events. The higher-resolution domain displayed significant performance gains in simulating dry-season convective precipitation, rainfall around complex terrain, and the spatial distribution of frost conditions. The high-resolution domain was, however, influenced by grid-edge effects in the southwestern margin, which reduced the ability of the domain to represent frontal rainfall along the coastal region. On the basis of these results, the authors feel confident in using the WRF Model for regional climate simulations for the SWWA, including studies that focus on the spatial and temporal representation of climate extremes. This study provides a baseline climatological description at a high resolution that can be used for impact studies and will also provide a benchmark for climate simulations driven by general circulation models.

scholarly journals Identifying added value in high-resolution climate simulations over Scandinavia

2015 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 24941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Mayer ◽  
Cathrine Fox Maule ◽  
Stefan Sobolowski ◽  
Ole Bøssing Christensen ◽  
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Simulations

Regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale with RegCM4: Evaluation of precipitation and future projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Stocchi ◽  
Emanuela Pichelli ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Jose Abraham Torres Alvarez ◽  
Filippo Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

<p>The recent increase in climate modeling activities at convection permitting scales (grid spacing under 4 km) has strongly been motivated by the increased computer capacities in the last years with the aim to reduce the model errors associated with parameterized convection and a more detailed representation of present and future regional climate. Some Regional climate projects addressing on convection permitting modeling simulations and projections have been recently implemented to make more robust conclusions on the added value of convection permitting simulation to future climate projections. Here, we present convection resolving climate simulations performed in the framework the European Climate Prediction System (EUCP) project, using the non-hydrostatic version of the RegCM model. The RegCM simulations have a grid spacing of 3 km, over three different regions (Pan-Alpine, Central Europe, and South-East Europe). These simulations were driven by initial and boundary conditions built from intermediate 12 km simulations driven by the global climate model (GCM) HadGEM2-ES. We considered three time slices each one of them covering a 10-year period, the historical (1996-2005), the near future (2041-2050) and the far future (2090-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The high resolutions (3 km) simulations, over the historical period, are evaluated through comparison with available observations data sets (including in-situ and satellite-based observation of precipitation) and coarse resolution (12 km) simulation is used as benchmark. The kilometer-scale RegCM4.7 scenario (RCP8.5) simulations, driven by HadGEM2-ES, near future (2041-2050) and the far future (2090-2099), are also analyzed and presented, focusing on the future change in terms of mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons.</p>

scholarly journals High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation in Morocco

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 5687-5737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
D. Ruelland ◽  
S. Somot ◽  
R. Bouaicha ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Hydrological Impact ◽  
Split Sample

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of these high-resolution simulations. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of a catchment located in North Morocco, using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 km and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30% to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15% and −19% and for temperature between +1.28°C and +1.87°C.

Regional Climate Simulations with COSMO-CLM: Ensembles, Very High Resolution and Paleoclimate

2018 ◽  
pp. 411-429
Author(s):  
G. Schädler ◽  
H.-J. Panitz ◽  
E. Christner ◽  
H. Feldmann ◽  
M. Karremann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Very High
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