WRF Sensitivity for Seasonal Climate Simulations of Precipitation Fields on the CORDEX South America Domain

Dynamic numerical models of the atmosphere are the main tools used for weather and climate forecasting as well as climate projections. Thus, this work evaluated the systematic errors and areas with large uncertainties in precipitation over the South American continent (SAC) based on regional climate simulations with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Ten simulations using different convective, radiation, and microphysical schemes, and an ensemble mean among them, were performed with a resolution of 50 km, covering the CORDEX-South America domain. First, the seasonal precipitation variability and its differences were discussed. Then, its annual cycle was investigated through nine sub-domains on the SAC (AMZN, AMZS, NEBN, NEBS, SE, SURU, CHAC, PEQU, and TOTL). The Taylor Diagrams were used to assess the sensitivity of the model to different parameterizations and its ability to reproduce the simulated precipitation patterns. The results showed that the WRF simulations were better than the ERA-interim (ERAI) reanalysis when compared to the TRMM, showing the added value of dynamic downscaling. For all sub-domains the best result was obtained with the ensemble compared to the satellite TRMM. The largest errors were observed in the SURU and CHAC regions, and with the greatest dispersion of members during the rainy season. On the other hand, the best results were found in the AMZS, NEBS, and TOTL regions.

A revised lower estimate of ozone columns during Earth’s oxygenated history

The history of molecular oxygen (O 2 ) in Earth’s atmosphere is still debated; however, geological evidence supports at least two major episodes where O 2 increased by an order of magnitude or more: the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) and the Neoproterozoic Oxidation Event. O 2 concentrations have likely fluctuated (between 10 −3 and 1.5 times the present atmospheric level) since the GOE ∼2.4 Gyr ago, resulting in a time-varying ozone (O 3 ) layer. Using a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model, we simulate changes in O 3 in Earth’s atmosphere since the GOE and consider the implications for surface habitability, and glaciation during the Mesoproterozoic. We find lower O 3 columns (reduced by up to 4.68 times for a given O 2 level) compared to previous work; hence, higher fluxes of biologically harmful UV radiation would have reached the surface. Reduced O 3 leads to enhanced tropospheric production of the hydroxyl radical (OH) which then substantially reduces the lifetime of methane (CH 4 ). We show that a CH 4 supported greenhouse effect during the Mesoproterozoic is highly unlikely. The reduced O 3 columns we simulate have important implications for astrobiological and terrestrial habitability, demonstrating the relevance of three-dimensional chemistry-climate simulations when assessing paleoclimates and the habitability of faraway worlds.

Geodetic Landmarks Soil Loss Susceptibility Using RUSLE and Climate Change Scenarios

Geodetic landmarks (GLs) are essential for obtaining the precise height, horizontal coordinates, and the Earth's gravity field. Once physically implanted on the surface, they are susceptible to movement and displacement. This study aims to assess the soil susceptibility of GLs for past and future scenarios through the Revised Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). So the soil loss estimations were made for the GLs in Brazil's southern Santa Catarina region. Our results showed average soil loss values, reaching 175915 t/ha/year, while the GLs were 2109 t/ha/year. There was an increase in GLs in the null class, mainly caused by urban infrastructure increase. At the same time, a decrease occurred in the low, very severe, severe, and moderate classes. In contrast, for future scenarios, an increase in the GLs average soil loss was found until 2100. However, it is essential to highlight that the most relevant increase occurred in the 2021-2040 period. After that, some scenarios as ssp126 remained stable, ssp245 and ssp370 slightly increased while ssp585 increased the most, reaching a maximum value of 2364 t/ha/year until 2100. There are a stability in the null class with a little decreasing in the low and moderate classes. In severe and very severe classes, there are a increase in the almost all scenarios. This behavior take account only the rainfall, thus for a better analysis, would be necessary the forecast of land cover change. Therefore, the climate simulations can be used to understand the effects of climate change on soil erosion to support decision-making.

Non-Hydrostatic RegCM4 (RegCM4-NH): model description and case studies over multiple domains

We describe the development of a non-hydrostatic version of the regional climate model RegCM4, called RegCM4-NH, for use at convection-permitting resolutions. The non-hydrostatic dynamical core of the Mesoscale Model MM5 is introduced in the RegCM4, with some modifications to increase stability and applicability of the model to long-term climate simulations. Newly available explicit microphysics schemes are also described, and three case studies of intense convection events are carried out in order to illustrate the performance of the model. They are all run at a convection-permitting grid spacing of 3 km over domains in northern California, Texas and the Lake Victoria region, without the use of parameterized cumulus convection. A substantial improvement is found in several aspects of the simulations compared to corresponding coarser-resolution (12 km) runs completed with the hydrostatic version of the model employing parameterized convection. RegCM4-NH is currently being used in different projects for regional climate simulations at convection-permitting resolutions and is intended to be a resource for users of the RegCM modeling system.

A High-Resolution Numerical Model of the North Aegean Sea Aimed at Climatological Studies

A new, high-resolution model for the northern part of the Aegean Sea, aimed primarily at climatological research (relaxation and data assimilation-free climate simulations), is hereby presented, along with the results of a 28-year-long simulation covering the period from 1986 to 2013. The model applied is the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). A significant improvement over previous models of the Aegean introduced in this work is the replacement of parameterizations of the Dardanelles exchange by a fully three-dimensional simulation of the flow in the Strait. The incorporation of part of the Marmara Sea in the model domain enables the interaction with other regional climate simulations, thus allowing climatic variability of the exchange of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. An extensive validation is carried out comparing the model output with all the available observations from several different platforms, i.e., satellite sea surface temperature and height, T/S profiles from R/V ships, and HF radar surface currents velocity. We focus on the model’s ability to reproduce, to some extent, the distinct thermohaline features and circulation patterns that characterize this specific area of the Mediterranean Sea. Our findings, after comparing simulation results with all the available observations, revealed the model’s sufficiency to simulate very adequately the complex hydrology of the North Aegean Sea, and the model’s ability to reproduce incidents of deep-water formation that took place in the region in previous decades during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT).