Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe

Global soil water availability is challenged by the effects of climate change and a growing population. On average 70 % of freshwater extraction is attributed to agriculture, and the demand is increasing. In this study, the effects of climate change on the evolution of the irrigation water requirement to sustain current crop productivity are assessed by using the FAO crop growth model AquaCrop version 6.1. The model is run at 0.5° lat × 0.5° lon resolution over the European mainland, assuming a general C3-type of crop, and forced by climate input data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase three (ISIMIP3). First, the performance of AquaCrop surface soil moisture (SSM) simulations using historical meteorological input from two ISIMIP3 forcing datasets is evaluated with satellite-based SSM estimates. When driven by ISIMIP3a reanalysis meteorology for the years 2011–2016, daily simulated SSM values have an unbiased root-mean-square difference of 0.08 and 0.06 m3m−3 with SSM retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) missions, respectively. When forced with ISIMIP3b meteorology from five Global Climate Models (GCM) for the years 2011–2020, the historical simulated SSM climatology closely agrees with the climatology of the reanalysis-driven AquaCrop SSM climatology as well as the satellite-based SSM climatologies. Second, the evaluated AquaCrop model is run to quantify the future irrigation requirement, for an ensemble of five GCMs and three different emission scenarios. The simulated net irrigation requirement (Inet) of the three summer months for a near and far future climate period (2031–2060 and 2071–2100) is compared to the baseline period of 1985–2014, to assess changes in the mean and interannual variability of the irrigation demand. Averaged over the continent and the model ensemble, the far future Inet is expected to increase by 67 mm year–1 (+30 %) under a high emission scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0. Central and southern Europe are the most impacted with larger Inet increases. The interannual variability of Inet is likely to increase in northern and central Europe, whereas the variability is expected to decrease in southern regions. Under a high mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6), the increase in Inet will stabilize around 40 mm year–1 towards the end of the century and interannual variability will still increase but to a smaller extent. The results emphasize a large uncertainty in the Inet projected by various GCMs.

The Expectations of Project Managers from Artificial Intelligence: A Delphi Study

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are rapidly developing these days and are expected to impact the field of project management on multiple levels; however, there remains a high level of uncertainty regarding the effect that AI might have on project management practices. This article aims to address this topic based on a Delphi study with a panel of 52 project management experts who reflected on future potential AI applications for the project management Knowledge Areas. The article provides a visionary perspective that can be further translated into practical solutions in the near and far future to improve project management practices.

A Fighting Stance Against the “Next Big One” Post-SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Contemporaneous Social Imagery and Journalism

Humanity has to first survive the present SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic moment, and then it has to learn from it in order to better handle a similar challenge in the near-, medium-, and far-future. This work explores what an 800+ social imageset from Google Images (seeded with the phrase “COVID19 and future”) and a 724-article journalistic articleset around COVID-19 (with mentions of “future”) suggest about how the general public is thinking about the future either living with COVID-19 or post-COVID-19, at the micro (individual), meso (group, organizational), and macro (societal, global) levels. This work considers what a fighting stance against future pathogenic microbial agents may look like in a broad public mindset based on contemporaneous public data, analyzed both manually and partially computationally.

Confronting horror, embracing fantasy: A conversation about Lovecraft Country and radical imagination in higher education

Higher education is at a pivotal point of reflection due to the forces of neoliberalism, anti-Blackness, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the past, higher education has overlooked the university’s far future, opting to focus on readily conspicuous change. Along with this disregarded conversation, these crises present higher education faculty, administrators, and staff an opportunity to critically re-think the future of higher education given what we know now and what we do not. In this dialogic essay between a higher education policy doctoral student and a tenured media and communications professor, the authors peer into the hit HBO series Lovecraft Country and its underlying themes of horror, fantasy, and historical reality to extract vital lessons for higher education. The authors further participate in conversations about utilizing world and storymaking tactics to help higher education envision the university of the future—a future that is radical and boundless.

Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs

Quantification of the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological parameters is of high importance and remains a challenge in arid areas. This study applied a modified distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to the Yarkant River basin, China to assess hydrological changes under future climate change scenarios. Climate change was assessed based on six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370), and several bias correction methods, whereas hydrological regime changes were assessed over two timeframes, referred to as the near future (2021–2049) and the far future (2071–2099). Results demonstrate that the DM (distribution mapping) and LOCI (local intensity scaling) bias correction methods most closely fit the projections of temperature and precipitation, respectively. The climate projections predicted a rise in temperature of 1.72–1.79 °C under the three SSP scenarios for the near future, and 3.76–6.22 °C under the three SSPs for the far future. Precipitation increased by 10.79–12% in the near future, and by 14.82–29.07% during the far future. It is very likely that streamflow will increase during both the near future (10.62–19.2%) and far future (36.69–70.4%) under all three scenarios. The increase in direct flow will be greater than baseflow. Summer and winter streamflow will increase the most, while the increase in streamflow was projected to reach a maximum during June and July over the near future. Over the far future, runoff reached a peak in May and June. The timing of peak streamflow will change from August to July in comparison to historical records. Both high- and low-flow magnitudes during March, April, and May (MAM) as well as June, July, and August (JJA) will increase by varying degrees, whereas the frequency of low flows will decrease during both MAM and JJA. High flow frequency in JJA was projected to decrease. Overall, our results reveal that the hydrological regime of the Yarkant River is likely to change and will be characterized by larger seasonal uncertainty and more frequent extreme events due to significant warming over the two periods. These changes should be seriously considered during policy development.

Nnedi Okorafor: Trajectories of an African Futurism

This article presents an analysis of the new category of Africanfuturism coined by the Nigerian American writer (or Naijamerican, as she defines herself) Nnedi Okorafor in 2019, after years of questions about the limits that the category of Afrofuturism has put over the receptions of her works. Okorafor felt the urgency to open this new horizon to better insist on the importance of stories and narratives profoundly rooted in the African continent, thus abandoning the Western models and canons of science fiction and creating new ways of looking towards the far future. Through the analysis of Okorafor’s novels (Who Fears Death?, Lagoon and Binti), interviews and posts on her blog, the article explores the potentialities of Okorafor’s speculative fiction to deal with technologies, traditions, cultures, social transformations, and how these issues inform a future Africa that could possibly be an entirely new world, in which the concept of ‘West’ and ‘colonialism’ do not have any meaning.

Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Droughts significantly affect socioeconomic and the environment primarily by decreasing the water availability of a region. This study aims to assess the changes in drought characteristics in Central Asia's transboundary Amu Darya river basin for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx and Tmn) simulations of 19 global climate models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to select the best models to prepare the multimodel ensemble (MME). The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to estimate droughts for multiple timescales from Pr and potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from Tmx and Tmn. The changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of droughts for different severities and timescales were evaluated for the two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060-2099, compared to the base period of 1975-2014. The study revealed four GCMs, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, as most suitable for projections of droughts in the study area. The multimodel ensemble (MME) mean of the selected GCMs showed a decrease in Pr by -3 to 12% in the near future and a change in the range of 3 to -9% in the far future in most parts of the basin for different SSPs. The PET showed almost no change in most parts of the basin in the near future and an increase in the range of 10 to 70% in the far future. The change (%) in projected drought occurrence showed to noticeably decrease in the near future, particularly for moderate droughts by up to ≤-50% for SSP5-8.5 and an increase in the far future by up to ≥30% for SSP3-7.0. The increase in all severities of droughts was projected mostly in the center and northwest of the basin. Overall, the results showed a drought shift from the east to the northwest of the basin in the future.

Future climate change scenario in hot semi-arid climate of Saurashtra, Gujarat by using statistical downscaling by LARS-WG model

Climate change is considered to be the greatest challenge faced by mankind in the twenty first century which can lead to severe impacts on different major sectors of the world such as water resources, agriculture, energy and tourism and are likely to alter trends and timing of precipitation and other weather drivers. Analyses and prediction of change in critical climatic variables like rainfall and temperature are, therefore, extremely important. Keeping this in mind, this study aims to verify the skills of LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research - Weather Generator), a statistical downscaling model, in simulating weather data in hot semi-arid climate of Saurashtra and analyze the future changes of temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation downscaled by LARS-WG based on IPCC SRA2 scenario generated by seven GCMs' projections for the near (2011-2030), medium (2046-2065) and far (2080-2099) future periods. Rajkot (22.3° N, 70.78° E) observatory of IMD, representing hot semi-arid climate of Saurashtra, Gujarat state was chosen for this purpose. Daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data for the period of 1969-2013 have been utilized. LARS-WG is found to show reasonably good skill in downscaling daily rainfall and excellent skill in downscaling maximum and minimum temperature. The downscaled rainfall indicated no coherent change trends among various GCMs’ projections of rainfall during near, medium and far future periods. Contrary to rainfall projections, simulations from the seven GCMs have coherent results for both the maximum and minimum temperatures. Based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs, projected rainfall at Rajkot in monsoon season (JJAS) showed an increase in near future, i.e., 2011-2030, medium future (2046-2065) and far future (2080-2099) periods to the tune of 2, 11 and 14% respectively compared to the baseline value. Model studies indicating tropospheric warming leading to enhancement of atmospheric moisture content could be the reason for this increasing trend. Further, at the study site summer (MAM) maximum temperature is projected to increase by 0.5, 1.7 and 3.3°C during 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 respectively and winter (DJF) minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.8, 2.2 and 4.5 °C during 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 respectively.

The Battle Within and the Battle Without: The Posthuman Worldview of Ken MacLeod’s The Corporation Wars Trilogy

The present essay seeks to analyze Scottish science fiction writer Ken MacLeod’s The Corporation Wars trilogy (2016-2017) as an amalgam of politico-philosophical ideas set against the background of posthumanism. MacLeod’s far-future posthuman world-building relies on the conventional tropes of science fiction (man-machine hybrids, brain uploading, digital resurrection, and the agency of sentient machines) to engage with pressing ideologies (the master-slave dialectics, the historical perpetuation of age-old conflict between progressive and reactionary forces, the ethics of machinic consciousness). MacLeod’s novels project a postbinarist worldview where outmoded binary oppositions between life and death, the real and the virtual, the human and the machinic are constantly abolished, but which still preserves persistent ideological divisions.