Age-class distribution and the forest fire cycle

1978 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Van Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Class Structure ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Class Distribution ◽  
Age Class ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential

The expected age-class structure of a forest dependent on random periodic fire for disturbance and renewal is derived and presented. It is simply the negative exponential distribution, well known in probability mathematics. An important feature of this concept is that the present age-class structure of such a forest is the key to its past fire history. Its limitations are discussed, and the computer simulation of variations, including the interaction of fire and logging, is described. Three examples of its use in interpreting fire history are given.

The Missing Tail and Other Considerations for the Use of Fire History Models

1995 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 197 ◽  
Author(s):  
MA Finney
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Forest Age ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Class Distribution ◽  
Age Class ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential Model ◽  
Negative Exponential ◽  
Tests Of Fit

This paper reviews methods used for testing the fit of the cumulative form of a negative exponential distribution to the cumulative distribution of forest age-classes. It is shown that existing methods can lead to a greater chance of falsely rejecting the fit of the negative exponential model and inferring that fire frequencies have changed through time. This results when the old-age tail of a negative exponential distribution is mathematically assumed to be present at the end of the age-class distribution. In reality, the tail is censored from sample distributions of forest age-classes. Censoring alters the shape of a cumulative age-class distribution from the straight line expected for a semi-log graph of the cumulative negative exponential model. A solution to this problem is proposed that restricts the tests-of-fit to the portion of the negative exponential distribution that overlaps with the data to be tested. The cumulative age-class distribution can then be compared directly with the cumulative of a truncated negative exponential distribution. Considerations for interpreting a poor fit are then discussed.

Arithmetic Research of Computer Simulation of the Bus Junction Stations

2010 ◽  
Vol 108-111 ◽  
pp. 441-445
Author(s):  
Yong Luo ◽  
Xiu Chun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Computer Model ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Step Length ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential

This paper will construct a discrete system's computer model, include the time distribution of buses arrive, stop and passengers’ get down and get off. The emulation clock advanced with the method of incident step length. Through the inversion produce the random variables of Poisson distribution, negative exponential distribution and normal distribution, simulate the conditions of bus arrive, leave and pick up passengers. Finally calculate with the relative data and then get a series of indicators to evaluate the crowing degree of the bus station.

Consequences of various landscape-scale ecosystem management strategies and fire cycles on age-class structure and harvest in boreal forests

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Fall ◽  
Marie-Josée Fortin ◽  
Daniel D Kneeshaw ◽  
Stephen H Yamasaki ◽  
Christian Messier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Ecosystem Management ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Landscape Scale ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Class Structure ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Class Distribution ◽  
Age Class

At the landscape scale, one of the key indicators of sustainable forest management is the age-class distribution of stands, since it provides a coarse synopsis of habitat potential, structural complexity, and stand volume, and it is directly modified by timber extraction and wildfire. To explore the consequences of several landscape-scale boreal forest management strategies on age-class structure in the Mauricie region of Quebec, we used spatially explicit simulation modelling. Our study investigated three different harvesting strategies (the one currently practiced and two different strategies to maintain late seral stands) and interactions between fire and harvesting on stand age-class distribution. We found that the legacy of initial forested age structure and its spatial configuration can pose short- (<50 years) to medium-term (150–300 years) challenges to balancing wood supply and ecological objectives. Also, ongoing disturbance by fire, even at relatively long cycles in relation to historic levels, can further constrain the achievement of both timber and biodiversity goals. For example, when fire was combined with management, harvest shortfalls occurred in all scenarios with a fire cycle of 100 years and most scenarios with a fire cycle of 150 years. Even a fire cycle of 500 years led to a reduction in older forest when its maintenance was not a primary constraint. Our results highlight the need to consider the broad-scale effects of natural disturbance when developing ecosystem management policies and the importance of prioritizing objectives when planning for multiple resource use.

The Comparison Between the Bayes Estimator and the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Reliability Function for Negative Exponential Distribution

2018 ◽  
pp. 439
Author(s):  
Hazim Mansour Gorgees ◽  
Bushra Abdualrasool Ali ◽  
Raghad Ibrahim Kathum
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Reliability Function ◽  
Bayes Estimator ◽  
Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential ◽  
Better Than

     In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayes estimator of the reliability function for negative exponential distribution has been derived, then a Monte –Carlo simulation technique was employed to compare the performance of such estimators. The integral mean square error (IMSE) was used as a criterion for this comparison. The simulation results displayed that the Bayes estimator performed better than the maximum likelihood estimator for different samples sizes.

Ehrenfest urn models

1965 ◽  
Vol 2 (02) ◽  
pp. 352-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Karlin ◽  
James McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Urn Models ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential ◽  
Random Times

In the Ehrenfest model with continuous time one considers two urns and N balls distributed in the urns. The system is said to be in stateiif there areiballs in urn I, N −iballs in urn II. Events occur at random times and the time intervals T between successive events are independent random variables all with the same negative exponential distributionWhen an event occurs a ball is chosen at random (each of theNballs has probability 1/Nto be chosen), removed from its urn, and then placed in urn I with probabilityp, in urn II with probabilityq= 1 −p, (0 &lt;p&lt; 1).

A stochastic characterisation of the natural disturbance regime of the boreal mixedwood forest with implications for sustainable forest management

1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 424-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glen W Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Class Structure ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Age Class ◽  
Boreal Mixedwood Forest ◽  
Random Draw ◽  
Negative Exponential ◽  
Burn Rate

The annual area burned on an 8.6 × 106 ha study area in the boreal mixedwood forest of northeastern Alberta, Canada, was characterised as a serially independent random draw from a lognormal distribution. This characterisation was applied in Monte Carlo simulations, which showed that estimates of the mean annual burn rates, even with long sample periods, are highly imprecise. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to simulate the development of a forest subject to lognormally distributed annual burn rate in an attempt to characterise the equilibrium age-class structure. No equilibrium age-class structure could be identified from the simulation results. The validity of equilibrium age-class distribution models (e.g., the negative exponential and Weibull) and analysis that relies on these models is questioned for forests where the annual burn rate is highly variable.

A characterization of the negative exponential distribution with application to reliability theory

1981 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 652-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Reliability Theory ◽  
The Other ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
System Availability ◽  
Failure Times ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential

The negative exponential distribution is characterized in terms of two independent random variables. Only one of the random variables has a negative exponential distribution whilst the other can belong to a wide class of distributions. This result is then applied to two models for the reliability of a system of two modules subject to revealed and unrevealed faults to show when the models are equivalent. It is also shown, under certain conditions, that the system availability is only independent of the distribution of revealed failure times in one module when unrevealed failure times in the other module have a negative exponential distribution.

An exponential Markovian stationary process

1980 ◽  
Vol 17 (04) ◽  
pp. 1117-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Valadares Tavares
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Autocorrelation Function ◽  
Stationary Process ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Exact Distribution ◽  
Markovian Process ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential

A new markovian process {X i : i = 0, 1, 2, ·· ·} following a negative exponential distribution and with the same autocorrelation function as the lag-1 autoregressive process is proposed and studied in this paper. The exact distribution of the maxima and of the minima of n consecutive Xi values are obtained and the exact expected upcrossing interval is given for any crossing level.

A characterization of the negative exponential distribution with application to reliability theory

1981 ◽  
Vol 18 (03) ◽  
pp. 652-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Reliability Theory ◽  
The Other ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
System Availability ◽  
Failure Times ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Negative Exponential

The negative exponential distribution is characterized in terms of two independent random variables. Only one of the random variables has a negative exponential distribution whilst the other can belong to a wide class of distributions. This result is then applied to two models for the reliability of a system of two modules subject to revealed and unrevealed faults to show when the models are equivalent. It is also shown, under certain conditions, that the system availability is only independent of the distribution of revealed failure times in one module when unrevealed failure times in the other module have a negative exponential distribution.

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