Probabilistic assessment of complex system consisting three subsystems, multi-failure threats and copula repair approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to deliberate the system reliability of a system in combination of three subsystems in a series configuration in which all three subsystems function under a k-out-of-n: G operational scheme. Based on computed results, it has been demonstrated that copula repair is better than general repair for system better performance. The supplementary variable approach with implications of copula distribution has been employed for assessing the system performance.Design/methodology/approachProbabilistic assessment of complex system consisting three subsystems, multi-failure threats and copula repair approach is used in this study. Abbas Jubrin Bin, V.V. Singh, D.K. Rawal, in this research paper, have analyzed a system consisting of three subsystems in a series configuration in which all three subsystems function under a k-out-of-n: G operational scheme. The supplementary variable approach with implications of copula distribution has been employed for assessing the system performance. Based on computed results, it has been demonstrated that copula repair is better than general repair for system better performance.FindingsIn this analysis, four different cases of availability are analysed for Gumbel–Hougaard family copula and also four cases for general repair with similar failure rates are studied. The authors found that when failure rates increase, the system availability decreases, and when the system follows copula repair distribution, the system availability is better than general repair.Research limitations/implicationsThis research may be implemented in various industrial systems where the subsystems are configured under k-out-of-n: G working policy. It is also advisable that copula repair is highly recommended for best performances from the system. On the basis of mean time to system failure (MTSF) computations, the failure rate which affects system failure more needs to be controlled by monitoring, servicing and replacing stratagem.Practical implicationsThis research work has great implications in various industrial systems like power plant systems, nuclear power plant, electricity distributions system, etc. where the k-out-of-n-type of system operation scheme is validated for system operations with the multi-repair.Originality/valueThis work is a new work by authors. In the previously available technical analysis of the system, the researchers have analyzed the repairable system either supplementary variable approach, supplementary variable and system which have two subsystems in a series configuration. This research work analyzed a system with three subsystems with a multi-repair approach and supplementary variables.

Methodology for the Assessment of Imprecise Multi-State System Availability

Most existing studies of a system’s availability in the presence of epistemic uncertainties assume that the system is binary. In this paper, a new methodology for the estimation of the availability of multi-state systems is developed, taking into consideration epistemic uncertainties. This paper formulates a combined approach, based on continuous Markov chains and interval contraction methods, to address the problem of computing the availability of multi-state systems with imprecise failure and repair rates. The interval constraint propagation method, which we refer to as the forward–backward propagation (FBP) contraction method, allows us to contract the probability intervals, keeping all the values that may be consistent with the set of constraints. This methodology is guaranteed, and several numerical examples of systems with complex architectures are studied.

Evaluating the Electronic Service Quality of E-Shops Using AHP-TOPSIS

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and rank the e-shops of the top Greek coffee-chains, based on their electronic service quality. Data were collected from experts during the first COVID-19 lockdown. Based on the E-S-QUAL model, we applied a 12-step multi-criteria decision-making methodology utilizing analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). The results indicate that system availability and fulfillment are the two most crucial dimensions of the model. Protection of credit card information, webpages that do not freeze during the ordering process, delivery of the ordered items, and truthfulness about products and services offered by the e-shop are considered the most important sub-dimensions. Our findings can aid managers and practitioners focus on the most important service quality elements when developing e-commerce websites. Furthermore, our study’s results highlight the positive and negative areas of performance of the e-shops under evaluation.

Smart Design of Green Hydrogen Facilities: A Digital Twin-driven approach

This work studies the potentials of Digital Twin solutions for the design of competitive and reliable green hydrogen facilities. A digital twin based on stochastic simulations is proposed to address the uncertainties associated with investment and operating costs, to increase confidence and stimulate investments. Several input assumptions are involved (i.e., capital and operational costs, energy consumption, available energy, among others) to analyse their influence on financial indicators. A set of facility designs with equipment redundancy, and thus different system availabilities, was proposed. Monte Carlo simulation method is chosen to propagate uncertainties onto the project bankability assessment. By applying the proposed methodology, the opportunity index and internal rate of return (IRR) are calculated. A sensibility analysis is also carried out. The simulations illustrate that the design of a facility can be optimized to achieve higher profits, based on a trade-off between investment and availability. This study concludes that digital twin solutions are an opportunity for reducing the uncertainties associated with green hydrogen facility design. Improvements to the proposed model can be achieved by performing a refined simulation, in relation to the calculation of system availability and maintenance costs.

A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Model for Municipal Waste Treatment Systems Evaluation including Energy Recovery

One of the recent problems on waste sorting systems is their performance evaluation for proper decision making and management. For this purpose, multi-criteria methods can be used to evaluate the sorting system from both operational and financial perspectives. According to a recent literature review, there are no solutions for evaluating waste sorting systems that take into account: sorting point utilisation, sorting efficiency, waste stream irregularity, and technical system availability. In addition, the problem of data uncertainty and the need to use expert judgements indicate the need for the implementation of methods adjusted to the qualitative and quantitative assessment, such as the fuzzy approach. Following this, in order to overcome the presented limitations, the authors introduced the new assessment method for waste sorting systems based on multi-criteria model implementation and fuzzy theory use. Therefore, the developed model was based on a hierarchical fuzzy logic model for which appropriate membership function parameters and inference rules were defined. The specificity of the chosen assessment criteria and their justification was provided. The model has been implemented to evaluate one of the waste sorting plants in Wroclaw, Poland. Tests have been conducted for seven different configurations of waste sorting lines (with variable input parameters). The study focuses on analysing the amount of selected waste at each station in relation to the total stream size of each fraction. Efficiency was measured by the mass of the collected waste and the number of pieces of waste in each fraction. Based on the obtained results, estimations of particular parameters of the model were made, and the results were presented and commented on. It was shown that there is a significant relationship between the level of system evaluation and sorting efficiency and an inverse relationship with the level of RDF obtained. The analysis was based on Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient estimation and linear regression implementation.

The Demand Supply Steady-State Process-Based Multi-Level Spare Parts Optimization

Spare parts are one of the important components of the equipment comprehensive support system. Spare parts management plays a decisive role in achieving the desired availability with the minimum cost. With the equipment complexity increasing, the price of spare parts has risen sharply. The traditional spare parts management makes the contradiction between fund shortage and spare parts shortage increasingly prominent. Based on the analysis of the multi-echelon and multi-indenture spare parts support model VARI-METRIC (vary multi-echelon technology for recoverable item control, VARI-METRIC), which is widely used by troops and enterprises in various countries, the model is mainly used in high system availability scenarios. However, in the case of low equipment system availability, the accuracy and cost of model inventory prediction are not ideal. This paper proposed the multi-level spare parts optimization model, which is based on the demand-supply steady-state process. It is an analytical model, which is used to solve the low accuracy problem of the VARI-METRIC model in the low equipment system availability. The analytical model is based on the multi-level spare parts support process. The article deduces methods for solving demand rate, demand–supply rate, equipment system availability, and support system availability. The marginal analysis method is used in the model to analyze the spare parts inventory allocation strategy’s current based cost and availability optimal value. Finally, a simulation model is established to evaluate and verify the model. Then, the simulation results show that, when the low availability of equipment systems are 0.4, 0.6, the relative errors of the analytical model are 3.54%, 3.86%, and its costs are 0.52, 1.795 million ¥ RMB. The experiment proves that the inventory prediction accuracy of the analytical model is significantly higher than that of the VARI-METRIC model in low equipment system availability. Finally, the conclusion and future research directions are discussed.

Functioning of a technical system with an instantly replenished time reserve, taking into account preventive maintenance

В работе рассматривается функционирование технической системы с мгновенно пополняемым резервом времени с учетом профилактики. Приводится описание функционирования такой системы. При использовании аппарата полумарковских исследований производится построение аналитической модели системы с мгновенно пополняемым резервом времени при учете влияния профилактики на ее производительность. При построении полумарковской модели принимается ограничение на количество профилактик за время восстановления рабочего элемента. Описываются полумарковские состояния исследуемой системы, и приводится граф состояний. Определяются времена пребывания в состояниях системы, вероятности переходов и стационарное распределение вложенной цепи Маркова. Для определения функции распределения времени пребывания системы в подмножестве работоспособных состояний с использованием метода траекторий находятся все траектории переходов системы из этого подмножества в подмножество неработоспособных состояний и вероятности их реализации. Определяются времена пребывания системы в найденных траекториях. На основании теоремы полной вероятности определяются функции распределения времен пребывания системы в подмножествах работоспособных и неработоспособных состояний и коэффициент готовности системы. Приводится пример моделирования исследуемой системы. Проводится сравнение полученных результатов с результатами использования теоремы о среднестационарном времени пребывания системы в подмножестве состояний. The work examines the functioning of a technical system with an instantly replenished reserve of time, taking into account prevention. The description of the functioning of such a system is given. When using the apparatus of semi-Markov studies, an analytical model of the system is constructed with an instantly replenished reserve of time, taking into account the effect of prevention on its performance. When constructing a semi-Markov model, a limitation on the number of preventive measures during the restoration of a working element is adopted. The semi-Markov states of the system under study are described, and the state graph is given. The sojourn times in the states of the system, the transition probabilities, and the stationary distribution of the embedded Markov chain are determined. To determine the distribution function of the time spent by the system in a subset of operable states using the trajectory method, all trajectories of the system's transitions from this subset to the subset of inoperable states and the probability of their realization are found. The residence times of the system in the found trajectories are determined. On the basis of the total probability theorem, the distribution functions of the sojourn times of the system in subsets of the healthy and inoperable states and the system availability factor are determined. The modeling example of th system under study is given. The results obtained are compared with the results of using the theorem on the average stationary sojourn time of the system in a subset of states.

Bayesian estimate of system availability for consecutive k-out-of-n:F system

In the efficient design and functionality of complex systems, redundancy problems in systems play a key role. The consecutive-k-out-of-n:F structure, which has broad application in street light arrangements, vacuum systems in an accelerator, sliding window detection, relay stations for a communication system. Availability is one of the significant measures for a maintained device because availability accounts for the repair capability. A very significant feature is the steady-state availability of a repairable device. For the repairable consecutive k-out-of-n:F system with independent and identically distributed components, the Bayesian point estimate (B.P.E) of steady-state availability under squared error loss function (SELF) and confidence interval are obtained.