A SEQUENTIAL DECISION PROBLEM BASED ON THE RATE DEPENDING ON A MARKOV PROCESS

Author(s):  
TŌRU NAKAI
1972 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-133
Author(s):  
Leonard J. Parsons ◽  
W. Bailey Price

A retailer operating in an environment in which a competitor is the price leader must determine how to adapt his prices to those of this competitor. The sequential decision problem of the manager is formulated as a Markov process with rewards.


1993 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel Cressie ◽  
Peter B. Morgan

Under more general assumptions than those usually made in the sequential analysis literature, a variable-sample-size-sequential probability ratio test (VPRT) of two simple hypotheses is found that maximizes the expected net gain over all sequential decision procedures. In contrast, Wald and Wolfowitz [25] developed the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to minimize expected sample size, but their assumptions on the parameters of the decision problem were restrictive. In this article we show that the expected net-gain-maximizing VPRT also minimizes the expected (with respect to both data and prior) total sampling cost and that, under slightly more general conditions than those imposed by Wald and Wolfowitz, it reduces to the one-observation-at-a-time sequential probability ratio test (SPRT). The ways in which the size and power of the VPRT depend upon the parameters of the decision problem are also examined.


Mathematics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 158
Author(s):  
Alexander Gnedin ◽  
Zakaria Derbazi

We introduce a betting game where the gambler aims to guess the last success epoch in a series of inhomogeneous Bernoulli trials paced randomly in time. At a given stage, the gambler may bet on either the event that no further successes occur, or the event that exactly one success is yet to occur, or may choose any proper range of future times (a trap). When a trap is chosen, the gambler wins if the last success epoch is the only one that falls in the trap. The game is closely related to the sequential decision problem of maximising the probability of stopping on the last success. We use this connection to analyse the best-choice problem with random arrivals generated by a Pólya-Lundberg process.


2004 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
NATALIE GOLD ◽  
CHRISTIAN LIST

A framing effect occurs when an agent's choices are not invariant under changes in the way a decision problem is presented, e.g. changes in the way options are described (violation of description invariance) or preferences are elicited (violation of procedure invariance). Here we identify those rationality violations that underlie framing effects. We attribute to the agent a sequential decision process in which a “target” proposition and several “background” propositions are considered. We suggest that the agent exhibits a framing effect if and only if two conditions are met. First, different presentations of the decision problem lead the agent to consider the propositions in a different order (the empirical condition). Second, different such “decision paths” lead to different decisions on the target proposition (the logical condition). The second condition holds when the agent's initial dispositions on the propositions are “implicitly inconsistent,” which may be caused by violations of “deductive closure.” Our account is consistent with some observations made by psychologists and provides a unified framework for explaining violations of description and procedure invariance.


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