scholarly journals THE NATURAL INTEREST RATE IN EMERGING MARKETS

2009 ◽  
pp. 333-368
Author(s):  
ASHIMA GOYAL
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets

Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Developed Economies

Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and, finally developed economies’ implementation of unconventional monetary policies. Especially the implementation of quantitative easing (QE), ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. One of the regions most profoundly affected by the crisis was Asia due to its high dependence on international trade and international financial linkages. The objective of this book is to explain how macroeconomic shocks stemming from the global financial crisis and recent unconventional monetary policies in developed economies have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging markets, with a particular focus on Asia. In particular, the book covers the following thematic areas: (i) the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in emerging economies; (ii) the impact of recent macroeconomic shocks on real economies in emerging markets; and (iii) key challenges for the monetary, exchange rate, trade, and macroprudential policies of developing economies, especially Asian economies, and suggestions and recommendations to increase resiliency against external shocks.

scholarly journals An Ex-Post Investigation Of Interest Rate Parity In Asian Emerging Markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahram Adrangi ◽  
Kambiz Raffiee ◽  
Todd M. Shank
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Rate Parity ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Interest Parity ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the uncovered interest parity theory for the three emerging markets of Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. The study provides evidence on the efficiency of the currency markets of these economies. In this paper we test for the uncovered interest parity because futures markets for currencies of most emerging markets are not well developed. Furthermore, short- term exchange rate supply and demand are often dominated by the uncovered international investments. Several statistical tests are applied in an attempt to detect evidence of uncovered interest parity. We find there is evidence that the currencies of higher interest rate emerging economies tend to depreciate in the future spot market. However, our test results indicate that this relationship does not support the uncovered interest parity strictly. Arbitrage opportunities remain for a longer periods than predicted by the uncovered interest parity. Furthermore, these abnormal gains are not random and could be predicted by a well designed econometric model. These findings are consistent with empirical findings surrounding uncovered interest parity for mature markets of the world.

scholarly journals Predictive Power of Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rate on Stock Return and Volatility: A Comparison

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai Ching Poon ◽  
Gee Kok Tong
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Economic Volatility

Using monthly data from seven mature and emerging markets and a battery of GARCH and EGARCH models, the study of Davis and Kutan (2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan, and Singapore) and four emerging markets who experienced a crisis before (Malaysia, India, Korea, and Philippines). It is found that economic volatility, as measured by movement in inflation, output growth, and interest rate, have a weak predictor power for stock market volatility and returns. In line with the evidence reported in Davis and Kutan (2003), the findings suggest that there is no support for the Fisher effect in stock returns among the seven mature and emerging markets.   Keywords: Predictive power; output; inflation; interest rate; stock return volatility.  

Determinants of interest rate in emerging markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sulait Tumwine ◽  
Samuel Sejjaaka ◽  
Edward Bbaale ◽  
Nixon Kamukama
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Equity Capital ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Reserve Requirement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Interest Margin ◽  
Negative Effect

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of interest rate in emerging markets, focusing on banking financial institutions in Uganda. Design/methodology/approach Using the net interest margin model, interest rate was estimated by applying a panel random effects regression method on 24 banks, while controlling for bank-specific factors, industry and macroeconomic indicators. Data were drawn from annual reports provided by Bank of Uganda Depository Corporation survey from 2008 to 2016. Findings The results indicate that liquidity, equity capital, market power and reserve requirement have a positive effect on interest rate. The study further finds that operational efficiency, lending out ratio, concentration, public sector borrowing and private sector credit have a negative effect on interest rate. However, credit risk does not influence interest rate. Research limitations/implications Studied banks are grouped in one panel data set; future studies would focus on the differences in banks and establish how these differences affect interest rate. Future study would also focus on how the determinants of interest rate in Uganda are compared with those of other banks in other emerging market countries. Practical implications Bank managers need to take interest in equity mobilization because it is a reliable and cheaper source of funding bank operations. Banks should emphasize efficient operations to reduce on the cost of doing business. Government should utilize funds borrowed from banks in efficient ways to improve economic growth. The central bank should minimize the use of reserve requirement as a means of controlling money in circulation. Originality/value This is the first paper that uses annual report data from several banks and periods to investigate the determinants of interest rate in an emerging country.

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