The Impact of External Factors on Stock Return Volatility in the European Banking Sector

Purpose: The main aim of the paper is to examine the impact of external determinants on the banking stock return volatility to evaluate it in terms of the stock market capitalization. Design/methodology/approach: The research was conducted on 182 banks from 26 countries. The sample selected for the study includes all European banks listed on the stock exchange. Quarterly data from the period between 2004 and 2016 was used; it was collected and compiled over a period of 2 years. The research method applied was the panel data model with fixed effects (with or without a robust estimator) and random effects. Findings: Determinants that have a major and statistically significant impact on the analyzed dependent variables are: the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, the beta in Sharpe’s Single-Index Model and the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index and the EURO STOXX50 index. Research limitations/implications: Insights about the strength and direction of influence of these variables on stock return volatility are a valuable addition to the existing body of knowledge that investors resort to when making decisions relating to the capital market. Limitations: The main limitation of this study lies in the fact that the results of the analysis apply solely to the banking sector. Originality/value: Insights about the strength and direction of influence of these variables on stock return volatility are a valuable addition to the existing body of knowledge that investors resort to when making decisions relating to the capital market.

Politically Connected Firms and Their Stock Return Volatility during High-Visibility Events: Evidence from Malaysia

This study investigates the relationship between political connection and firm stock volatility. We examine whether stock return volatility of politically connected firms differ from non-connected firms during four events. These four events are general election, change of leadership, announcement of government budget, and announcement of policies by the government. This paper uses a volatility event study technique to calculate the abnormal stock return volatility during the four events. We use the data of public-listed firms in Malaysia from 2002 to 2013. The result shows that political connection is associated with higher stock volatility in certain events. They appear to be the most volatile in the event of general election and least volatile during budget announcement. Besides budget announcement, the other three events showed a stronger volatility as they are considered as more of a surprise announcement rather than scheduled announcement. The paper adds to a limited body of literature investigating the relationship between political connection and market behavior in Malaysia and hopes to show that political connection can impact the stock return volatility of firms during high-visibility events in Malaysia.

THE CONNECTEDNESS BETWEEN THE SENTIMENT INDEX AND STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY UNDER COVID-19: A TIME-VARYING PARAMETER VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION APPROACH

We analyze the connectedness between the sentiment index and the return and volatility of the crude oil, stock and gold markets by employing the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model vis-à-vis the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. Our sentiment index is constructed via text mining technology. We also employ a network to visualize and better understand the structure of the connectedness. The results confirm that the sentiment index is the net pairwise directional connectedness receiver, while the infectious disease equity market volatility tracker is the transmitter. Furthermore, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the total connectedness of volatility is unprecedented.

Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: evidence from the Indian Stock Exchange

PurposeIn any stock market, volatility is a significant factor in strengthening their asset pricing. The upsurge in volatility in the stock market can activate and bring changes in the financial risk. According to financial conventional theory, the stakeholders (investors) are selected to be balanced and variations in pertinent risk are also to be anticipated due to the outcome of the drive-in basic factors in Indian stock markets. The hypothesis shows that there are actions in systematic and unsystematic risks that are determined by volatility. It is allied to sentiment-driven in the trader movement.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used the methodology of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in mean GARCH-M and exponential GARCH-M (E-GARCH-M) methods on the Indian stock market. The data have been covered from 2000 to 2019.FindingsFinally, the study suggests that due to the unfitness of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the selection has enhanced with sentiment is an important risk factor.Practical implicationsThe investor sentiment and stock return volatility statement are established by using the investor sentiment amalgamated stock market index built.Originality/valueThe outcome of the study shows that there is an important association between stakeholder (investor) sentiment and stock return, in case of volatility behavioural finance can significantly explain the behaviour of stock returns on the Indian Stock Exchange.

Positive Tone in Management Reports and Volatility of Stock Returns

This article aims to analyse the effects of positive tone in management reports on stock return volatility. It is expected that this article contributes to the literature about disclosure by proposing an objective textual content analysis of management reports, focussing on optimistic words or expressions employed by firms and their effect on stock return volatility. The sample consisted of management reports and financial data from 576 different Brazilian firms’ stocks. Regarding volatility, our measure is based on daily stock returns from 1 April 2011 to 23 October 2020. The data related to positive tone and control variables were based on the fiscal years 2010–2019. Therefore, the database contains 3,945 stock-year observations. The study hypothesis was tested through a regression model with panel data. The main results suggest that companies with higher positive disclosure tone scores do not necessarily present lower stock return volatility in the subsequent period. The objective content of financial reports (for example, in relation to profitability) seems to be related to stock volatility; however, the tone of subjective expressions does not represent the main determinant of stock volatility.

Value and risk effects of financial derivatives: Evidence of corporate governance on hedging, speculation and selective hedging strategies

<p>This study investigates whether there is a relationship between corporate governance and derivatives, whether corporate governance influence in firms impacts the association between derivatives and firm value, and whether corporate governance influence affects the association between derivatives and cash flow volatility, stock return volatility and market risk. This study uses two different data samples of publicly traded firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The first sample comprises a panel of 6900 firm year observations and the other consists of a panel of 6234 firm year observations both over the eight-year period from 2004-2011. With regard to whether there is a relationship between corporate governance and derivatives, the findings from the empirical results show that corporate governance does influence derivatives and therefore is an important determinant in the firm’s decisions to use derivatives. Of the thirteen corporate governance variables examined, board size, institutional shareholders, CEO age, CEO bonus, CEO salary, insider shareholders and total CEO compensation show significant association with derivatives. This study finds that derivative users exhibit higher firm value on account of the corporate governance influence, which is correspondingly largely insignificant for derivative non-users. Further the research indicates that the impact of corporate governance varies according to the different types of risks examined. Generally, the board of directors and CEO governance mechanisms reduce stock return volatility to achieve hedging effectiveness. This supports the view that directors and management take actions to reduce stock return volatility to protect their personal portfolios without having to bear the costs of hedging themselves. With respect to cash flow volatility, the board of directors and CEO related corporate governance mechanisms largely exhibit increased risk to show evidence of speculative behavior. It supports the perceptions that managers and directors have a strong motivation to show higher earnings to protect jobs and reputation and to enhance compensation. All the shareholder governance mechanisms encourage risk taking with respect to stock return volatility, without any increase in firm value. This is in line with research findings of market granularity by institutional and other larger block holders to indicate that these investors increase stock price volatilities and play the markets for their own financial gain. Besides they have little interest in diversifying firm risk as they already have well protected portfolios and would not want to incur additional costs of hedging. The study finds evidence of association between corporate governance and hedging, speculation and selective hedging. Of the thirteen corporate governance variables examined in the study board diversity consistently shows hedging effectiveness, with accompanying increase in firm value. While board meetings, institutional shareholders, block shareholders, CEO age, CEO base salary and CEO compensation exhibit exclusive speculative behavior. The remaining corporate governance mechanisms: board size, insider shareholding, CEO tenure, CEO bonus and audit committee size, show evidence of selective hedging behavior. The concurrent hedging and speculative behavior evidenced in this study supports literature in respect of selective hedging by non-financial firms. It also validates the idea that corporate governance delves in risk allocation strategies that have been evidenced by past research. The results remain unchanged, after using alternative measures for firm value and firm risk, and alternative methods of analyses.</p>

Value and risk effects of financial derivatives: Evidence of corporate governance on hedging, speculation and selective hedging strategies

<p>This study investigates whether there is a relationship between corporate governance and derivatives, whether corporate governance influence in firms impacts the association between derivatives and firm value, and whether corporate governance influence affects the association between derivatives and cash flow volatility, stock return volatility and market risk. This study uses two different data samples of publicly traded firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The first sample comprises a panel of 6900 firm year observations and the other consists of a panel of 6234 firm year observations both over the eight-year period from 2004-2011. With regard to whether there is a relationship between corporate governance and derivatives, the findings from the empirical results show that corporate governance does influence derivatives and therefore is an important determinant in the firm’s decisions to use derivatives. Of the thirteen corporate governance variables examined, board size, institutional shareholders, CEO age, CEO bonus, CEO salary, insider shareholders and total CEO compensation show significant association with derivatives. This study finds that derivative users exhibit higher firm value on account of the corporate governance influence, which is correspondingly largely insignificant for derivative non-users. Further the research indicates that the impact of corporate governance varies according to the different types of risks examined. Generally, the board of directors and CEO governance mechanisms reduce stock return volatility to achieve hedging effectiveness. This supports the view that directors and management take actions to reduce stock return volatility to protect their personal portfolios without having to bear the costs of hedging themselves. With respect to cash flow volatility, the board of directors and CEO related corporate governance mechanisms largely exhibit increased risk to show evidence of speculative behavior. It supports the perceptions that managers and directors have a strong motivation to show higher earnings to protect jobs and reputation and to enhance compensation. All the shareholder governance mechanisms encourage risk taking with respect to stock return volatility, without any increase in firm value. This is in line with research findings of market granularity by institutional and other larger block holders to indicate that these investors increase stock price volatilities and play the markets for their own financial gain. Besides they have little interest in diversifying firm risk as they already have well protected portfolios and would not want to incur additional costs of hedging. The study finds evidence of association between corporate governance and hedging, speculation and selective hedging. Of the thirteen corporate governance variables examined in the study board diversity consistently shows hedging effectiveness, with accompanying increase in firm value. While board meetings, institutional shareholders, block shareholders, CEO age, CEO base salary and CEO compensation exhibit exclusive speculative behavior. The remaining corporate governance mechanisms: board size, insider shareholding, CEO tenure, CEO bonus and audit committee size, show evidence of selective hedging behavior. The concurrent hedging and speculative behavior evidenced in this study supports literature in respect of selective hedging by non-financial firms. It also validates the idea that corporate governance delves in risk allocation strategies that have been evidenced by past research. The results remain unchanged, after using alternative measures for firm value and firm risk, and alternative methods of analyses.</p>

The Impact of Interest Rate Volatility on Stock Returns Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

Apprehension pertaining to Stock return volatility always has been producing the appreciable significance in the various current research works and it has been lucrative to many researchers for forecasting stock market volatility. This study is about the forecasting of stock returns volatility on the basis of interest rate volatility in the well established Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The stock returns are calculated on the basis of KSE 100 index and interest rate volatility is calculated on the basis of monthly treasury bills rate during a period of 1994 to 2016. Various volatility models like Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) were used to predict stock return volatility on the basis of interest rate volatility in Pakistan. ARCH model is one of the well known methods to forecast the error term in the data and which will certain our forecast regarding stock prices. In the Pakistan Stock Exchange the ARCH (1, 1) has been statistically significantly proved. The GARCH (1, 1) model is also used to estimate the stock volatility. This model shows the short run volatility affect the lagged stock returns and is contributing to the overall volatility. The sum of α and β is less than 1 so the short run volatility is positively related to the overall stock volatility. The GARCH (1, 1) model has outperformed the other volatility models in the case of Pakistan Stock Exchange.

The long-term effects of section transfers on return volatility: Intraday and overnight periods

Purpose Studies on transfers to a more regulated section show an increase in information disclosure and stocks’ liquidity levels. Classical theories suggest that volatility should also be reduced. This study aims to analyse the long-term effects of a section transfer to a more regulated section (TSE 1/TSE 2) on stock return volatility. Design/methodology/approach This study uses an empirical framework relying on two-sample t-tests and panel regressions. These use robust standard errors and control for fixed effects, day effects and macroeconomic factors. The return variance of comparable stocks’ benchmark sample, instead of market variance, is used as a control variable. Comparable stocks operate within the same industry and do not transfer during the sample period. The authors test our results’ robustness using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity estimates. Findings The study’s main findings show that pre-transferred stocks are more volatile than the stocks’ benchmark sample. The transfer to a more regulated section leads to a gradual decrease in the total daily stock return volatility, intraday return volatility and overnight return volatility. Originality/value To the best of my knowledge, this study is the first to empirically address the volatility change caused by the stocks’ transfer to a more regulated section. This study highlights the benefits of choosing section transfers to reduce volatility.