Effective Practices of Macroprudential Stress Testing as a Tool of Increasing the Stability of Russian Financial System in the Context of Macroeconomic Shocks

The article examines the evolution of the prudential approach to banking regulation, examines the practical contribution of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to the development and implementation of internationally unified practices and procedures for stress testing and supervision. The authors share the point of view that the existing methods and practices of stress testing still need improvements and methodological improvements, since they regularly allow the practical implementation of adverse scenarios leading to financial shocks and global crises. As a significant disadvantage of many actively used stress testing models, it is noted that they are often focused on complex, highly bureaucratic procedures for the preparation and analysis of financial statements, the main purpose of which is to assess the probabilities and sizes of losses and identify scenarios for the development of the situation for each specific bank, and no risks for the financial system as a whole. The authors come to the conclusion that it is advisable to prioritize the use of alternative stress testing models in crisis and post-crisis conditions, the forecasts within which are based on the actual values of financial market indicators, macroeconomic variables, and other open data. Special attention is paid to the stylized CLASS model, based on simple econometric models, as well as stress testing the current market value of V-lab. Based on the results of the study, the authors come to a number of conclusions that the role of the macroeconomic component in the procedures, methods, and algorithms for macroprudential stress testing used in Russia should increase, the degree of involvement and the sphere of responsibility for its results of key institutional units of the public administration system should expand, and macroprudential stress testing itself should not be limited to supervisory stress testing in everyday practice.

A comparative study of small-scale fishery supply chains’ vulnerability and resilience to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic and response has significantly disrupted fishery supply chains, creating shortages of essential foods and constraining livelihoods globally. Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are responding to the pandemic in a variety of ways. Together, disruptions from and responses to COVID-19 illuminate existing vulnerabilities in the fish distribution paradigm and possible means of reducing system and actor sensitivity and exposure and increasing adaptive capacity. Integrating concepts from literature on supply chain disruptions, social-ecological systems, human wellbeing, vulnerability, and SSFs, we synthesize preliminary lessons from six case studies from Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru, Canada, and the United States. The SSF supply chains examined employ different distribution strategies and operate in different geographic, political, social, economic, and cultural contexts. Specifically, we ask (a) how resilient have different SSF supply chains been to COVID-19 impacts; (b) what do these initial outcomes indicate about the role of distribution strategies in determining the vulnerability of SSF supply chains to macroeconomic shocks; and (c) what key factors have shaped this vulnerability? Based on our findings, systemic changes that may reduce SSF vulnerability to future macroeconomic shocks include: diversification of distribution strategies, livelihoods, and products; development of local and domestic markets and distribution channels; reduced reliance on international markets; establishment of effective communication channels; and preparation for providing aid to directly assist supply chains and support consumer purchasing power.

ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY AND ISLAMIC BANKING QUALITY 2015-2019

This study aims to analyze the impact of macroeconomic shocks, such as economic growth, inflation and the rupiah exchange rate on Islamic banking efficiency. This study uses the two-stage least squares (TSLS) method, which is a method with two endogenous variables, namely the non-performing financing (NPF) ratio as a representation of the quality of Islamic banking financing and the operating expense operating income (BOPO) ratio as a representation of Islamic banking efficiency. So that the TSLS method aims to purify these endogenous variables against stochastic disturbances. This study uses monthly data from January 2010 to January 2020, or as many as 121 observations. The observation of data is obtained from Islamic Banking Statistic that published by Financial Services Authority (OJK). The efficiency of Islamic banks is influenced by the number of sharia banking office networks, capital adequacy ratios, and NPF ratios. The NPF ratio itself is affected by macroeconomic conditions (economic growth and appreciation of the rupiah exchange rate) as well as the efficiency of Islamic banking. Based on the above findings, a number of recommendations were given, including the urgency of simultaneously increasing efficiency and quality of Islamic banking financing accompanied by monitoring Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions, so that it is hoped that Islamic banks will be more resilient to macroeconomic shocks and competitive in the national financial services industry.

External macroeconomic shocks and stock price behavior in Nigeria

This research work investigates the relationship between external macroeconomic shocks and stock price behavior in Nigeria. Variables such as exchange rate (EXR), US real interest rate (USRINTR), and world oil price (WOP) are adopted to capture external macroeconomic shocks while all share price index is used to proxy stock price. The research work uses Johansen cointegration and structural vector autoregressive model as the estimation method. Findings from the study confirm that no long-term co-movement exists between the stock price and the selected external shocks. Findings from the study equally show that both US real interest rate (USRINTR) and world oil price (WOP) are the major external shock predictors of the stock price in Nigeria.

Distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks in real-time

The highly dynamic nature of the COVID-19 crisis poses an unprecedented challenge to policy makers around the world to take appropriate income-stabilizing countermeasures. To properly design such policy measures, it is important to quantify their effects in real-time. However, data on the relevant outcomes at the micro level is usually only available with considerable time lags. In this paper, we propose a novel method to assess the distributional consequences of macroeconomic shocks and policy responses in real-time and provide the first application to Germany in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, our approach combines different economic models estimated on firm- and household-level data: a VAR-model for output expectations, a structural labor demand model, and a tax-benefit microsimulation model. Our findings show that as of September 2020 the COVID-19 shock translates into a noticeable reduction in gross labor income across the entire income distribution. However, the tax benefit system and discretionary policy responses to the crisis act as important income stabilizers, since the effect on the distribution of disposable household incomes turns progressive: the bottom two deciles actually gain income, the middle deciles are hardly affected, and only the upper deciles lose income.

The price-rent dynamics and linkage of urban housing: evidence from Singapore

Purpose The aim of this paper is to examine dynamic linkages between price and rent and between property types. Intuition suggests that housing market segments experience different market cycles in response to macroeconomic shocks. However, they may be dynamically interlinked in urban areas because of substitutability. The linkage may even change, if preference weakens for multiple occupancies. A sudden reduction in apartment demand may create repercussions to other housing segments. Past analyses, despite their contributions, are static and do not consider possible linkages between property types. To fill this void, this paper investigates the price-rent dynamics for urban homes by adopting the case of Singapore. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies a methodology from Phillips et al. (2015) to Singaporean housing (price and rent) data. Phillips et al. (2015) recently proposed a test for an explosive root in time series data and has spurred several empirical applications in the bubble literature. Findings This paper finds for Singapore that the markets were subjected to explosive growth (where rents grew at a higher rate than prices did) during the Global Financial Crisis. Also, the results suggest that rent drives price and that non-landed housing (offices in central areas) leads to other residential housing (non-residential housing) in both price and rent. Practical implications Overall, the present findings suggest that rent drives price, while property types are interlinked. Non-landed homes and offices in central areas are the sources of repercussions. Under normal circumstances, rental shocks may be propagated positively from nonlanded housing (central offices) to the other residential (non-residential) property types as the present findings suggest, which enables us to infer that a decrease in non-landed housing (central offices) rent may lead to an increase in rent on other property types because pandemic shocks only shift demand fromone property type to another, unlike typical macroeconomic shocks. Originality/value Urban homes are faced with uncertainty arising from the COVID-19 outbreak for which city residents have a stronger incentive to exile to suburbs. Urban life may no longer be attractive because of social distancing and work from home policy. This has implications for urban home demands that are closely linked to urban house price and rent. In the present study, the paper set out to investigate the price-rent and property-type dynamics for urban homes in Singapore.

ISSUES OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN

The article examines the interaction of the country's GDP with the state budget in the short and long term, the impact of the macro-fiscal mechanism on the country's economic growth on the example of Uzbekistan.The aim of the study is to identify dynamic correlations between the country's state budget expenditures and the economic growth of the macro-fiscal mechanism in the short and long term, as well as to analyze the approximation or rate of return of GDP and the state budget to equilibrium during various macroeconomic shocks. and hesitation.The scientific novelties of the research are:

Trade credit, trade income elasticity and the international transmission of shocks

The paper examines the impact of trade credit on cyclical fluctuations in international trade. It provides new empirical evidence based on firm-level UK and Irish data showing that exporters use trade credit more actively and intensively than non-exporters. The study introduces inter-firm lending into an open economy general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous entry into the exports market. It demonstrates that trade credit amplifies the impact of macroeconomic shocks on international trade both along the intensive and extensive margins and that it significantly contributes to the high trade income elasticity observed in the data.