Detection of structural regimes and analyzing the impact of crude oil market on Canadian stock market: Markov regime-switching approach

Purpose This study aims to analyze the impact of the crude oil market on the Toronto Stock Exchange Index (TSX). Design/methodology/approach The focus is on detecting nonlinear relationship based on monthly data from 1970 to 2021 using Markov-switching vector auto regression (VAR) model. Findings The results indicate that TSX return contains two regimes: positive return (Regime 1), when growth rate of stock index is positive; and negative return (Regime 2), when growth rate of stock index is negative. Moreover, Regime 1 is more volatile than Regime 2. The findings also show the crude oil market has a negative effect on the stock market in Regime 1, while it has a positive effect on the stock market in Regime 2. In addition, the authors can see this effect in Regime 1 more significantly in comparison to Regime 2. Furthermore, two-period lag of oil price decreases stock return in Regime 1, while it increases stock return in Regime 2. Originality/value This study aims to address the effect of oil market fluctuation on TSX index using Markov-switching approach and capture the nonlinearities between them. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to assess the effect of the oil market on TSX in different regimes using Markov-switching VAR model. Because Canada is the sixth-largest producer and exporter of oil in the world as well as the TSX as the Canada’s main stock exchange is the tenth-largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization, this paper’s framework to analyze a nonlinear relationship between oil market and the stock market of Canada helps stock market players like policymakers, institutional investors and private investors to get a better understanding of the real world.

The Moderating Role of Return on Assets on Sharia Stock Returns: A Case Study on the Jakarta Islamic Index

This research aims to analyze the impact of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Exchange Value, and Index ISR in Sharia Stock Return pass of Return on Asset (ROA) in a company administered in the Jakarta Islamic Index 2013-2017 period. This sample choosing with the purposive sampling method with the total sample as 29 from 30 companies. The data used in this study is the secondary data, and data analysis used is the multiple linear regression analysis and path analysis. The research result indicates that experiment T Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Index ISR are not influential in Stock Return. Exchange Value and Return on Asset (ROA) significance of Stock Return. Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Index ISR influence Return on Asset (ROA). At the same time, Exchange Value is not influential with Return on Asset. Experiment F refers that DER, Exchange Value, and Index ISR influence Return on Asset and Stock Return. However, ROA cannot mediate the relation between DER, Exchange Value, and Index ISR in Stock Return.

Evidence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Stock Returns

This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence suggests that a rise in the U.S. EPU causes not only a decline in a country’s stock return, but also a negative spillover effect on the global market; however, we cannot find a comparable negative effect from global EPU to U.S. stocks. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact that significantly affects stock return worldwide. This study also finds an indirect COVID-19 impact that runs through a change in domestic EPU and, in turn, affects stock return. Evidence shows significant COVID-19 effects that change relative stock returns between the U.S. and global markets, creating a decoupling phenomenon.

Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Return Saham dengan Harga Saham sebagai Variabel Moderasi (Studi Kasus pada Perusahan Perbankan yang Terdaftar di BEI)

This study aims to know the factors that impact stock return with Market Price as the moderating variable of the banking company listed on the IDX from 2015 to 2020. The data is retrieved from idx.co.id. The population of this article is 43 banking companies, and to select the sample for this article has used purposive sampling and has selected 11 companies. The analysis method of this article has used descriptive statistics. The data has gone through BLUE (best linear unbiased estimator) test, such as normality test, autocorrelation test, multicollinearity test, and heteroscedasticity test before doing the hypothesis test. Further, the analysis data has used F-test, t-test, the equation of multiple linear regression, determination coefficient, and moderation. The study's findings are that, partially, LDR does not affect SR, ROA does not affect SR, and BOPO does not affect SR. PBV can not moderate the effect of LDR, ROA, and BOPO on stock return. The determination coefficient is 0.048 (4.8%), which means that the LDR, ROA, and BOPO have impacted SR as much as 4.8%, and the remaining is affected by other factors. The contribution of the research is to help the investors select the right stock.

Examining the association between stock return and seasonally adjusted trade in India

This paper aims to examine the association between Indian stock market return and seasonally adjusted trade for Indian Banking sector shares. The objective of the study is to measure the association between stock return and seasonally adjusted trade in the Indian stock market and recommend strategies. Due to the Covid 19 outbreak banking sector was highly affected, the Government of India also announced a moratorium on all categories of loans, banking business majorly depending on the deposit and loan creation, so the Government decision threaten the banking sector. Many private sector banks terminated temporary staff because of cut cost policies. We divided the banking sector into three segments. Namely, Public, Private and Small Finance Banks. Utilizing daily data from February 2020 to July 2020, consisting of 2196 in numbers, we ran a panel Vector Autoregression model to analyze the association. It was found that the return of stocks is influencing the volume of trade during this period. Also, while measuring the short-run causality, it is found that the return of banking stocks specifically granger causes the volume of trade. The suggestions of the study lie in providing importance to framing policies on improving the financial health of the economy through different fiscal policies. Strategic policies are required to face post-Covid situations. The turnaround strategies to combat the effects of the pandemic are characterized by the availability of the sustainable resources of the particular sector in consideration.

Predictive view of the value relevance of earnings in India

Purpose This study aims to examine the value relevance of earnings in terms of predicting the value variables such as cash flow, capital investment (CI), dividend and stock return under the Indian institutional settings. Design/methodology/approach The study used panel Granger causality tests to examine causality relationships among variables and panel data regression models to check the statistical associations between earnings and value variables. Findings Based on a data set of 7,280 Bombay Stock Exchange-listed firm-years spanning over ten years from March 2009 to March 2018, the results show higher sensitivity of earnings toward cash flows, CI, divided and stock return and vice-versa. Further, the findings deduced from the empirical results demonstrate that earnings are positively related to value variables. Overall, the results established that earnings are value-relevant and have predictive ability to forecast the value variables that facilitate investors in portfolio valuation. The results are consistent with the predictive view of the value relevance of earnings. Several robustness checks confirm these results. Originality/value This study brings new empirical evidence from a distinct capital market, India, and provides a new facet to the value relevance debate in terms of its prediction view. The study is among earlier attempts that jointly measure the ability of earnings in forecasting different value variables by taking a uniform sample of firms at the same period. Hence, the study provides a comprehensive view of the predictive ability of reported earnings.

THE EFFECT OF CURRENT RATIO, NET PROFIT MARGIN, AND RETURN ON ASSETS ON STOCK RETURN

Individuals and corporations investing in stocks should make sure the investments are appropriate before proceeding. It's also possible to use basic research or company performance as a substitute for investment appraisals. An investigation of the relationship between stock return and a company's current ratio, net profit margin, and return on assets was the primary goal of this research project (Study of Food and Beverages Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2017 Period). From 2015 to 2017, there were 21 Food and Beverage firms listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange that were studied in this study. Purposive sampling was used to gather samples from 12 different Food and Beverage firms for this study. The SPSS 15 program was used to do multiple linear regression analysis on the data. The results of this study indicate that (1) Current Ratio (CR) with tstatistic = -2,244 and a significance value of 0,032 has a significant effect on stock returns; (2) Net Profit Margin (NPM) with tstatistic = -2,364 and a significance value of 0,024 has a significant effect on stock returns; (3) Return on Assets (ROA) with tstatistic = 3,984 and a significance value of 0,000 has a positive and significant effect on the value of stock returns.