SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE IN SINGAPORE

2004 ◽  
Vol 49 (01) ◽  
pp. 55-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
HIROYA AKIBA ◽  
YUKIHIRO IIDA
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Specific Interest ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Intervention Activity ◽  
Market Intervention ◽  
Market Pressure

This paper examines an intervention index in the foreign exchange market, applying the quarterly data of the Singapore economy during the 1990's. The intervention index measures intervention activity as the proportion of exchange market pressure relieved by exchange market intervention. Singapore is selected because (1) it is a small open economy and consistent with this empirical study, and (2) it has been affected by speculative attacks. The specific interest is the effectiveness of intervention conducted by the Singapore authority to mitigate exchange market pressure. It is concluded that the overall intervention activity is surprisingly successful over the sample period.

scholarly journals Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Eichengreen ◽  
Alain Naef
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
European Monetary System ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Market Intervention ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Market Pressure ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market Intervention

Using newly assembled data on foreign exchange market intervention, we construct a daily index of exchange market pressure during the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System. Using this index, we pinpoint when and where the crisis was most severe. Our analysis focuses on a neglected factor in the crisis: the role of the weak dollar in intra-EMS tensions. We provide new evidence of the contribution of a falling dollar-Deutschmark exchange rate to pressure on EMS currencies.

scholarly journals Determinan of Exchange Market Pressure in ASEAN Inflation Targeting Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-32
Author(s):  
Lisa Gusmanita ◽  
Nury Effendi ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Market Pressure

 Abstract: The global economic turmoil on domestic economy was seen in 1997/1998 crisis which led to Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia implementing Inflation Targeting (IT). Empirically, IT was able to reduce  foreign exchange market pressure but crisis occurred again in 2008 and large foreign exchange market pressure in 2018. This study uses Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) to examines foreign exchange market pressure in ASEAN IT countries. According to Panday (2015), EMP is percentage change in exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, interest rate or combinations. This study aims to find determinant of EMP which can be used by monetary authority controlling pressure on foreign exchange market. Panel data analysis during 2010.Q1-2018.Q4 shows that domestic credit has significant negatively effect to EMP which indicates that domestic credit growth is in line with  increasing  net capital flows. Current account and US inflation have significant negatively effect while real GDP does not have significant.Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Exchange Rate, Monetary PolicyDeterminan Exchange Market Pressure Negara Inflation Targeting di ASEANAbstrak: Gejolak perekonomian global terhadap perekonomian domestik terlihat pada krisis 1997/1998 yang menyebabkan Thailand, Filipina dan Indonesia menerapkan Inflation Targeting (IT). Secara empiris, IT mampu menurunkan tekanan pasar valas akan tetapi krisis kembali terjadi di 2008 dan tekanan pasar valas yang besar di 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan terhadap pasar valas negara IT di ASEAN. Menurut Panday (2015), EMP adalah persentase perubahan nilai tukar, perubahan cadangan devisa, perubahan suku bunga dan atau kombinasinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan ingin mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang memengaruhi EMP sehingga dapat dijadikan masukan bagi otoritas moneter dalam mengendalikan tekanan terhadap pasar valas. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi data panel periode 2010.Q1-2018.Q4. Penelitian menunjukkan kredit domestik signifikan negatif memengaruhi EMP. Hal ini tidak sesuai teori yang mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan kredit domestik sejalan dengan peningkatan net capital flows. Transaksi neraca berjalan dan inflasi AS berpengaruh signifikan negatif sedangkan PDB riil tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap EMP.Kata kunci: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Nilai Tukar, Kebijakan Moneter

scholarly journals Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: The Turkish Case

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-130
Author(s):  
Ilyas Siklar ◽  
Aysegul Akca
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Market Pressure

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange market pressure index in Turkey for the 2002–2018 period with monthly data. To obtain the foreign exchange market pressure index, this study uses the model developed by L. Girton and D.E. Roper and is based fundamentally on the monetary approach to exchange rate determination and the balance of payments. The calculated exchange market pressure index is in accordance with the developments lived in financial markets and changes in monetary policy during the period under investigation. As for the relation between exchange market pressure index and monetary policy, a VAR model was set up and a Granger type causality analysis was carried out. According to Granger causality test results, there is a unidirectional causality running from domestic credit expansion to exchange market pressure and from domestic credit expansion to interest rate differential while there is a bidirectional causality between exchange market pressure and interest rate differential. Since increasing exchange market pressure means a depreciation of the Turkish Lira, the estimated VAR model’s results support the view that the Central Bank will increase the interest rate to temper the exchange market pressure.

scholarly journals A Monetary Examination Of Swedish Balance Of Payments Adjustment

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Richard W. Kjetsaa
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Alternative Analysis ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Monetary Approach ◽  
Market Pressure

The monetary approach to the balance of payments presents an alternative analysis of international imbalance one that highlights and brings to the forefront the role of monetary variables. This open economy macrofinancial theory postulates that external disorders reflect disequilibrium between the demand for and supply of money. The balance of payments is a monetary phenomenon. In this paper both the reserve-flow and exchange market pressure formulations are examined.

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