Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case

The purpose of this work is to investigate the influence of macroeconomics determinants on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Italian banking system over the period 2008Q3–2020Q4. We mainly contribute to the literature by being the first empirical article to study this relationship in the Italian context in the recent period, thus providing fresh evidence on the macroeconomic impact on NPLs, i.e., on the credit risk of Italian banks. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model, we are able to investigate the short and long-run effects of macroeconomic factors on NPLs. The empirical findings show that gross domestic product and public debt have a negative impact on NPLs. On the other hand, we find that the unemployment rate and domestic credit positively influence impaired loans. Finally, we find evidence of the “gamble for resurrection” approach, i.e., Italian banks tend to support “zombie firms”.

How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Production in Thailand? Assessing the Role of Financial Development

The study aims to examine the impacts of climate change (CC) and financial development (FD) on rice production (RP) in Thailand from the period 1969 to 2016 by using the ARDL and VECM framework. The empirical results revealed that in the long- run (LR) and short-run (SR) there is a reduction in rice production as temperature increase. The carbon dioxide (CO2) positively affects rice production in the (LR), while this connection is negative in the SR. The empirical results further confirmed that in the LR and SR domestic credit provided by the financial sector positively and significantly improved rice production, while domestic credit to private sector by banks negatively affect rice production. The important input factors including cultivated area, fertilizers use and labor force positively and significantly contributed to rice production in both LR and SR. The LR causal link of all variables with rice production is validated. The SR causal association is unidirectional among temperature, CO2 emissions, financial development, labor force and rice production. Additionally, the IRF and VDM outcomes also confirm that both climate change and socioeconomic development are crucial for rice production in Thailand. The study offers important policy implications to improve rice production with the help of improved financial system and climate controls.

The Effects of Financial Development and Governance Quality on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries

This paper investigates the effects of financial development on economic growth with especial emphasis on the role played by governance quality. An indicator of governance built from the Principal Component factor method (PCF) and which takes into account the simultaneous effects of political, institutional and economic governance, is used in mediating such relationship. The study is carried out using a two-step system dynamic GMM method for 93 developed and developing countries over the 1996–2018 period. The findings from the study revealed that the effects of financial development on economic growth various according to the nature of governance and the level of development of countries. Results show a non-significant effect of financial development on economic growth for low-income countries and a positively significant impact in middle and high-income ones. Estimations demonstrate also that good governance plays an important and significant role in mediating the finance-growth relationship. Finally, results demonstrate that there is a certain threshold level that countries must achieve to make government domestic credit to private sector favorable to economic growth.

Impact of Financialization on Income Inequality in Aspect of Welfare

Recently income inequality has been growing in many countries, and it is one of the biggest economic and social problems. The International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and other organizations stress the importance of this issue. According to Atkinson, Brandolini (2009), changes in income inequality show whether a particular society becomes more egalitarian over time or not, in which socio-economic direction it progresses.Even countries with similar economic structures differ in the level of income inequality and, according to Stiglitz (2015), differences in income inequality are related to policy decisions. The decisions of countries may depend on the prevailing view if markets are efficient or inefficient. In the first case, countries tend to rely more on neoliberal economic doctrine, and in the second, on the welfare state, where the role of government is more active (Stiglitz, 2017). However, it is observed that the growing income inequality is related to the growing role of the financial market, i.e. the phenomenon of financialization, which weakens the role of government. Thus, assessing the impact of financialization on income inequality is an actual topic of scientific debate.The results of studies, assessing the impact of financialization on income inequality, are mixed. Some financialization dimensions, such as financial liberalization, banking / financial crises increase income inequality, but microfinance intensity reduces income inequality. The contradictory results can be explained by the fact that research samples differ, various indicators reflecting the financialization are used, different independent variables are included in the regression equations.Studies have also been conducted in groups of countries that belong to different welfare state regimes (Josifidis, Mitrović, Supić, Glavaški, 2016; Dafermos, Papatheodorou, 2013). These studies emphasize that the level of income inequality is related to the efficiency of the social security system, i.e. income inequality is lower in Social–democratic welfare state regime (inherent universal social services and benefits) and Conservative–corporatist welfare state regime (social security model related to employment status) groups of countries than in the Mediterranean welfare state regime (characterized by the fragmentation of the social security model) and Liberal welfare state regime (inherent the specificity of the social security model, there is no universality) groups of countries. However, there is a lack of research that assesses the impact of financialization on income inequality in different welfare state regime groups of countries. The research problem: what is the impact of financialization on income inequality, is this impact the same in different EU welfare state regime groups? The object of the research - the impact of financialization on income inequality. The aim of the research is to assess the impact of financialization on income inequality in EU country groups.Research methods: analysis of scientific literature, grouping, generalization, regression analysis of panel data.When assessing the impact of financialization on income inequality in different welfare regimes EU country groups during the period 1998-2017, the least-squares regression analysis method of the panel data was used. The conducted research confirms the hypothesis and clearly shows that financialization, measured both by financial development index and domestic credit to the private sector, increases income inequality in all groups of countries. Thus, it shows that the role of the financial market is growing and financialization processes are contributing to the growth of income inequality in all groups of welfare regime countries and may reduce the role of government. These results are in line with Stiglitz, 2012; Razgūnė, 2017; Dünhaupt, 2014; Golebiowski, Szczepankowski, Wisniewska, 2016; Palley, 2008) who analyzed the relationship between financialization and growing income inequality. However, the study of Dabla-Norris et al. (2015), by contrast, find that the ratio of domestic credit to GDP in developed countries reduces income inequality.

Export Performance of MSMEs in India: Is Credit Constraint an Invisible Gorilla?

We examine the effects of foreign currency borrowings (FCBs) and domestic market constraints on the performance of the export of the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) during the period 1988–2019. Our results show that access to the FCBs improved the performance of the MSME exports, indicating the importance of credit accessibility. MSMEs effectively utilise the grants when accompanied by credit facilities such as FCBs. We find that the high cost of debt and lack of financial development adversely affect the exports, as MSMEs are unable to borrow. The rupee depreciation alone does not help the MSMEs reap such depreciation benefits due to the lack of domestic credit. The recent policy stance of emphasis on MSMEs is expected to improve export performance. This study calls for the specialised window for the MSMEs to meet low cost and easy credit. The findings suggest stepping up grants to the MSMEs to improve the export performance. JEL Codes: F14, F34, F2, F31

Legal Instruments to Support Borrowers (Consumers and Entrepreneurs) in Connection with the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poland, and Vietnam

The COVID-19 pandemic restrictions introduced in 2020 in many countries on economic activity and gainful employment have in many cases, reduced the incomes of individual households. As a result, the actual ability to meet credit obligations has declined, particularly for those who have lost their jobs or livelihoods. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a significant challenge for economies, national authorities, and entrepreneurs, including borrowers. This article aims to analyse the legal regulations in Poland, and Vietnam, introducing instruments to support borrowers, consumers, and entrepreneurs, in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors will present the legal basis for the instruments to support borrowers provided in the studied countries, indicate their legal nature, forms, and conditions of using them. They also compare legal solutions introduced in connection with the pandemic aimed at mitigating its adverse effects on borrowers in Poland, and Vietnam, to indicate whether cultural differences and differences in legal systems, as well as individual approaches to the domestic credit market, affected the choice of legal instruments for supporting borrowers in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, or not.

Effect of financial deepening on economic growth: Does it encourage income group transition?

The rapid growth of financial deepening raises the problem of its effect, beneficial for economic development. This paper aims to demonstrate the relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth, GNI per capita) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) in 142 countries, split into four income groups, over 2000–2020, using correlation analysis and data from the World Bank and the IMF. Besides, a comparative analysis of domestic credit to the private sector, economic freedom, Gini index, total government expenditure and national savings of countries that increased their income group status over 2011–2020 is presented. Financial deepening (increased credit availability and expansion of domestic credit to the private sector) encourages economic growth (via GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth). Although the presence of a nonlinear relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) over 1991–2020 is insufficient, there is a linear relationship between GNI per capita and credit availability, between credit availability and domestic credit to the private sector for the same sample of countries over 2000–2020. Meanwhile, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the correlation between GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth. Given the revealed linear correlation between domestic credit to the private sector and GNI per capita, financial deepening positively impacts income growth, and this dependence strengthens with increasing income levels. Target values of domestic credit to the private sector are proposed for the income group transition. AcknowledgmentThe paper was funded as a part of the “Relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Ukraine” research project (No. 0121U110766), conducted at the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

Financial development, poverty, and human development in the Fintech age: a regional analysis of the Southeast Asian states

This paper examines the effect of financial development in the Fintech age, measured by broad money, domestic credit, and mobile money, on poverty and human development in the Southeast Asian economies. Using unbalanced longitudinal dataset (1990-2017), the findings suggest that broad money and domestic credit contribute to poverty reduction and promote human development. The role of mobile money is seen to have a statistically positive impact only if we analyse it with human development. Additionally, when we take a closer look at the different stage of economic, political and institutional development in this region, we found that the positive effect of broad money and domestic credit is mostly found only in the less developed and less democratic countries. The mobile money, on the other hand, is found to statistically promote the human development in both groups of countries, but there is no statistical relationship for poverty analysis. To avoid the endogeneity bias driven by the fact that the variables in the analysis are not exogenous, the paper uses the instrumental variables and two-stage least squares for panel-data estimations, taking from the economic literature on the role of financial development in developing countries. In doing so, along with additional statistical tests of subsample analysis of political and institutional factors and higher- and lower-income countries, the results confirm the robustness in the analysis.

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles

This paper studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over 2003–13. We use administrative data covering the universe of corporate credit transactions matched to bank balance sheets to document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally; (3) the fall in local currency borrowing costs is larger than foreign currency borrowing costs due to the comovement of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) premium with the GFC over time; (4) data on posted collateral for new loan issuances show that collateral constraints do not relax during the boom phase of the GFC.

Impact of Fiscal Prudence and Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment Inflow: Nigerian Evidence

Foreign direct investment in a globalized and information technology driven environment, as we have today in the 21st century, acted as a driver of growth. This paper provides further evidences on macroeconomic management of FDI in emergent economies especially in Africa. The paper empirically measures the effects of fiscal prudence and financial development on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. It tested the importance of household consumption, domestic credit to the private sector, fixed capital formation, domestic savings, external debt, foreign reserve and financial development for the purpose of ensuring FDI inflow in Nigeria. It findings show that domestic credit to private sector, fixed capital formation, foreign reserve and financial development are statistically significant in the case of Nigeria. The econometric methodologies followed for the study are log-linear regressions and ARDL bound testing. Data was sourced from National Bureau of statistics and World Bank’s World Development Index for the period ranging from 1985 to 2018.