Model Uncertainty and Financial Frictions: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy

The last decades proved that policymaking without considering uncertainty is impracticable. In an environment of uncertainty, policymakers have doubts about the policy models they routinely use. This paper focuses specifically on the situation where uncertainty on the financial side of the economy leads to misspecification in the policy model. We describe a coherent strategy for policymakers who are averse to model misspecification and analyze optimal policy design in the face of Knightian uncertainty. To do so, we augment a financial dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with model misspecification in a simple minimax framework where the central bank plays a zero-sum game versus a hypothetical evil agent. The policy is tailored to insure against the worst-case outcomes. We show that model ambiguity on the financial side requires a passive monetary policy stance. However, if the uncertainty originates from the supply side of the economy, an aggressive response of interest rate is required. We also show the impact of an additional macroprudential tool on the dynamics of the economy.

FOREIGN FINANCING, EXCHANGE RATE EXPOSURES AND CORPORATE INVESTMENT IN SINGAPORE

We study the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign corporate investment flows to Singaporean firms using a linear reduced-form empirical specification on data from the past decade. Overall, we find that the cost of debt capital falls on average when the Singapore dollar depreciates. Isolating the effect of exchange rates on US-denominated debt vis-a-vis interest rates and yield curve variables shows that an increase in the cost of foreign debt capital through exchange rate changes leads to lower investment, albeit only slightly and an order of magnitude less important than short-term government bond yields.

AGGREGATE MARKUP DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

Unlike previous studies that focus on the change of firm-level markup, this study focuses on the change of industry-level aggregate markup. From the data of China’s manufacturing firms in 1999–2007, this study exploits the dynamic change of aggregate markup by using the decomposition method which is proposed by Melitz and Polanec (2015). The result shows that China’s manufacturing aggregate markup has an upward trend during the sample period, which mainly comes from the contribution of surviving firms. On the contrary, the contribution of entering and exiting firms to the aggregate markup is negative. Further analysis shows that trade liberalization is one of the reasons to promote the increase of China’s manufacturing aggregate markup. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the dynamic change of the aggregate markup.

MOBILE WALLETS AND CONSUMER SPENDING IN SINGAPORE: AGARWAL et al. REVISITED

Agarwal et al. ( 2019 ). Mobile wallet and entrepreneurial growth. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 109, 48–53 analyze the impact of the introduction of quick response (QR) codes for mobile payments in Singapore. They find that this not only resulted in a significant increase in the use of mobile wallets, but that there was also a positive spillover effect on debit and credit card payments — in particular at small and new businesses. This note argues that the increase in card sales cannot have been driven by the QR code technology. I also proffer an alternative explanation, namely, that Agarwal et al. simply capture the concurrent increase in popularity of contactless cards.

THE CONNECTEDNESS BETWEEN THE SENTIMENT INDEX AND STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY UNDER COVID-19: A TIME-VARYING PARAMETER VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION APPROACH

We analyze the connectedness between the sentiment index and the return and volatility of the crude oil, stock and gold markets by employing the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model vis-à-vis the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. Our sentiment index is constructed via text mining technology. We also employ a network to visualize and better understand the structure of the connectedness. The results confirm that the sentiment index is the net pairwise directional connectedness receiver, while the infectious disease equity market volatility tracker is the transmitter. Furthermore, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the total connectedness of volatility is unprecedented.

MODELING TOURISM–ENVIRONMENT RELATIONSHIP IN AUSTRALIA: DOES ASYMMETRY MATTER?

Prior empirical studies have employed various econometric estimation techniques to study the environmental effect of tourism demand. Prominently, these econometric modeling techniques implicitly assume that the environmental effect of tourism is symmetrical, which could sometimes be problematic. This study, therefore, utilized two econometric estimation techniques, namely, the Pesaran et al. ( 2001 ). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) symmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Shin et al. ( 2014 ). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, pp. 281–314. New York: Springer) nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) estimation technique to disentangle the effect of tourism demand on carbon emissions in Australia. The results from the symmetric ARDL model reveal that tourism demand significantly increases carbon emissions in the long run, indicating that a 1% increase in tourism demand contributes to a 0.155% increase in carbon emissions in the long run. Contrarily, the NARDL model shows that a positive shock (an increase) in tourism demand reduces carbon emissions while a negative shock (a decrease) in tourism demand increases carbon emissions in the long run. From the NARDL estimate, a 1% increase in tourism demand is associated with a 0.220% decline in carbon emissions, while a 1% decrease in tourism demand increases carbon emissions by 0.250%. Therefore, I argue that carbon emissions depend not only on the size of tourism demand but also on the pattern — thus the increase and decline — of tourism demand. The implications of these results for policy are discussed.

IMPACTS OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION ON POVERTY AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN DEVELOPING ASIA

This study investigates the impacts of financial inclusion on poverty and income inequality in 27 developing countries in Asia during 2004–2019 based on a composite financial inclusion index (FII) constructed using principal component analysis (PCA). The generalized method of moments (GMM) was employed for the estimation. The results show that financial inclusion can influence the reduction in both poverty and income inequality. The empirical findings also reveal the contribution of such control variables as economic growth in decreasing income disparity and trade openness in helping improve the standard of living of poor households despite its tendency to co-vary with income inequality. The present empirical evidence supporting the role of financial inclusion in reducing poverty and income inequality in developing countries has led to a policy implication that financial sector development should focus on the availability, usage, and depth of credit to cover all poor households or low-income groups to help improve their access to financial services, enable them to increase their income, and reduce the income gap between poor and rich households.

THE INFLUENCES OF STOCK MARKET ON EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND UNDER THE THRESHOLD EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY IN CHINA

This paper estimates the smooth transition autoregressive model with exogenous variables to evaluate the effects of stock market returns on the exchange-traded funds’ (ETFs) returns in China with reserve requirement ratio (RRR) from monetary policy as a transition variable. The sample used in this study lasts from March 4, 2005 to June 30, 2017. The empirical result points out that there is the effect of RRR value on the relationship between stock market returns and ETF return. Moreover, these effects are variable depending on the conversion and its changes over time in different variations of threshold intervals. Lastly, the larger the change of China’s stock market variables’ lag period, the smaller the impacts on Chinese ETF return.

DO CEOS WITH SHARE PLEDGE SUPPRESS THE FIRMS’ INNOVATION?

It is a common phenomenon for corporate insiders to pledge their stock as collateral for personal loans in China. Using Chinese data, this paper examines the effects of CEOs’ share pledge on the firms’ future innovation output. Evidence suggests that the existence of CEOs with share pledge has a significantly negative effect on firms’ innovation output. The baseline results are consistent with a variety of robust tests. Furthermore, we propose the effect of CEOs’ share pledge works on the corporate innovation through the market value management channel. Finally, we find that the good corporate governance is a possible channel to relieve the agency cost on CEOs.